Remember the government wanting to "follow the science"? It is remarkable how far it is ignoring scientific advice on this new ultra-infectious variant of #Covid-19 by keeping schools open... both SAGE and @imperialcollege issuing warnings on school closures. Stay with me. /1

@imperialcollege First the @imperialcollege paper, which finds that the new variant is still being ultra-infectious despite November lockdowns - link here, but cases of new variant trebled in SEast, even under lockdown /2

https://t.co/fdvuVX3OkW
@imperialcollege The paper then notes (given schools were open and under 20s are most infected): "A particular concern is whether it will be possible to maintain control over transmission while allowing schools to reopen in January 2021." /3
@imperialcollege This echoes what govt science advisory SAGE cmme told ministers on Dec 22...that it was "highly unlikely" the R number can be kept below 1 (cases falling, it is currently 1.1-1.3) with schools open /4

https://t.co/yV5qcSkErJ
@imperialcollege But on Dec 30 Gavin Williamson announce primaries would go back, and secondary schools would have staggered return while testing regime (lateral flow, not that sensitive) was set up - see statement here /5

https://t.co/U0LPgXXO55
@imperialcollege This thread by @dgurdasani1 unpicks the details...shows where things are headed. Tl;dr the point is that a more transmissible virus mutation is more dangerous than the virus becoming more lethal - but with same transmissibility. /6

https://t.co/8gx4T2yNkB
@imperialcollege @dgurdasani1 There are signs of pressure telling...like this @guardian story saying that Gov will include London boroughs in group of primaries in south that wont open /7
@imperialcollege @dgurdasani1 @guardian Apols - link here - still to be confirmed, but perhaps a belwether? /8

https://t.co/jOeAnn7wXb
@imperialcollege @dgurdasani1 @guardian In any event (and I write as a parent of a GCSE student who is v keen indeed that they should do their exams) what is clear is that the government is following this schools policy despite clear assertions from scientists that R will surge, given new variant infectiousness /9
@imperialcollege @dgurdasani1 @guardian At the same time - even before schools go back - the warning lights are starting to blink on the hospitals dashboard. Nightingales (for which it is not clear there are sufficient staff) are being talked about etc. /10
@imperialcollege @dgurdasani1 @guardian Just like with the Christmas changes, it seems hard - given where we are apparently headed - that the govt holds its line. And if does, for how long? And if numbers climb too high, well, the scientific warnings are there in black and white....tough weeks ahead. ENDS

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I'll begin with the ancient history ... and it goes way back. Because modern humans - and before that, the ancestors of humans - almost certainly originated in Ethiopia. 🇪🇹 (sub-thread):


The first likely historical reference to Ethiopia is ancient Egyptian records of trade expeditions to the "Land of Punt" in search of gold, ebony, ivory, incense, and wild animals, starting in c 2500 BC 🇪🇹


Ethiopians themselves believe that the Queen of Sheba, who visited Israel's King Solomon in the Bible (c 950 BC), came from Ethiopia (not Yemen, as others believe). Here she is meeting Solomon in a stain-glassed window in Addis Ababa's Holy Trinity Church. 🇪🇹


References to the Queen of Sheba are everywhere in Ethiopia. The national airline's frequent flier miles are even called "ShebaMiles". 🇪🇹
@EricTopol @NBA @StephenKissler @yhgrad B.1.1.7 reveals clearly that SARS-CoV-2 is reverting to its original pre-outbreak condition, i.e. adapted to transgenic hACE2 mice (either Baric's BALB/c ones or others used at WIV labs during chimeric bat coronavirus experiments aimed at developing a pan betacoronavirus vaccine)

@NBA @StephenKissler @yhgrad 1. From Day 1, SARS-COV-2 was very well adapted to humans .....and transgenic hACE2 Mice


@NBA @StephenKissler @yhgrad 2. High Probability of serial passaging in Transgenic Mice expressing hACE2 in genesis of SARS-COV-2


@NBA @StephenKissler @yhgrad B.1.1.7 has an unusually large number of genetic changes, ... found to date in mouse-adapted SARS-CoV2 and is also seen in ferret infections.
https://t.co/9Z4oJmkcKj


@NBA @StephenKissler @yhgrad We adapted a clinical isolate of SARS-CoV-2 by serial passaging in the ... Thus, this mouse-adapted strain and associated challenge model should be ... (B) SARS-CoV-2 genomic RNA loads in mouse lung homogenates at P0 to P6.
https://t.co/I90OOCJg7o