BC BIDEN
Saved by @jacobhtml

After 4 years of Donald Trump, the US must "reassure" its allies.

That's what I'm reading/hearing lately, such as in this @nytimes piece. What do international relations scholars know about reassuring allies? Can it be done? Is it even

 This passage from the article captures well the call for "reassurance": the US must convince its allies in Asia and Europe that the US would indeed use its nukes to protect them.
That's a tall order!

Indeed, such a tall order that it's been a major question explored by international relations scholars for a long time. A LONG TIME.
The topic was of keen debate in the 1950s, with Henry Kissinger writing a series of pieces on the topic, such as this 1956 @ForeignAffairs article

https://t.co/97fUw7sIj5
The academic discussion picked up in the late 1950s and early 1960s.

This included Robert Schelling's paper in the first issue of the Journal of Conflict Resolution...

https://t.co/rdd1N24HhZ
....followed by his 1960 classic book...

https://t.co/igRLc3dDzx
....Glenn Snyder's 1961 book...

https://t.co/bNIM7QQOOV
...and Schelling again in his 1966 book

https://t.co/Pv49qc7Hmc
That last book offered a famous passage on US credibility to allies that first appeared three years earlier in the Virginia Quarterly Review.

https://t.co/R9KgFmwOVB
Here is the passage:
In other words, "tripwire forces" who die at the beginning of an enemy attack are critical to "reassuring" allies that America will indeed respond, perhaps even with nukes.
So key to "assurance" is stationing US forces on allied territory.

Does it work?
On the one hand, it's really hard to say.

The core difficulty with evaluating deterrence is "selection bias" and an inability to see the "counterfactual" (i.e. we only observe deterrence failures).

https://t.co/2uyzeGHQ15
On the other hand, much research has looked directly at "tripwire" forces to determine if they do indeed enhance deterrence.

What the research finds is not supportive.
@profmusgrave & @Steven_m_ward report in this @monkeycageblog piece that American's are actually not so keen on responding to the deaths of US troops with force: it depended much more on factors such as "likelihood of success"

https://t.co/7jblEd27n8
@mcfuhrmann & Todd Sechser in @AJPS_Editor show that placing US nukes on allied territory doesn't do much either to enhance deterrence.

https://t.co/EdweUhWHd0
Another problem with forward deployed tripwires is that they can reduce the willingness of local populations to fight for themselves...

https://t.co/2hBOdsNT3F
...though @carlammm, @flynnpolsci, @michaelallen, & Andrew Stravers report in @apsrjournal that forward deployed forces can create positive views of the US in host countries.

https://t.co/aHiQlpDWYj
So tripwires & forward deployment of forces might well be overrated as a means of "reassuring" an ally.

What else can be done?
For some states that don't yet have alliances, creating formal military cooperation agreements can have value. So also does flat out giving "aid" (read $$). See @ALanoszka, @YarhiMilo & Zack Cooper in @Journal_IS.

https://t.co/SGvUwGm8K4
The US might also consider renegotiating some of its alliance agreements to include more precise conditions for support. See @mattes_michaela in @IntOrgJournal

https://t.co/ECh84QJ0Rv
The US can continue to issue public "statements of support" to skittish allies, which @BrianDBlank explored recently in @ISQ_Jrnl

https://t.co/abYBpwkuBp
Even private statements of support have some merit too, as @YarhiMilo & Roseanne McManus explore in this @IntOrgJournal piece.

https://t.co/KRA2wgHN4P
The US can engage in military exercises (as Ralph Clem discussed in @TXNatSecReview)
https://t.co/od5Aczh4GT
But here's the thing: you can never give ENOUGH of such statements. Reassurance doesn't end: You have to be constantly visiting, stating publicly your commitment, & taking actions.
Reassurance is a process, not an objective. There is no one policy, like tripwires, that will achieve it.

[END]

More from Paul Poast

Paul Poast
Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
What's the "value" offered by international relations scholarship?

What does it mean to think about world events "like an international relations scholar"?

Trump's order to withdrawal 🇺🇸 troops from 🇸🇴 offers a useful

This event could be viewed from a variety of angles, from the "micro-level" on up.

International Relations scholars/analysts can and do use each of the following angles, though not all are strictly speaking taking an "International Relations angle".

Let's explore the angles.

The "country-expert" angle entails discussing the event by laying out the situation within Somalia, providing details on key figures involved and perhaps how the conflict has disrupted Somalia's internal governance and

The "Military/Security analyst" angle involves outlining the details of what US troops presently do in Somalia and how they carry out their mission (including equipment, mission, and tactics).

See this @ChathamHouse report by

The "Area Studies/Regional Expert" angle involves discussing the decision as an event that will impact the Horn of Africa or East Africa more
TRUMP
Paul Poast
Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
Why are civil-mil scholars upset about Austin Lloyd's nomination as the 28th Secretary of Defense?

Consider the nomination of the 3rd Secretary of Defense: George Marshall

[THREAD]


In 1950, Truman wanted to fire the second SecDef, Louis Johnson, and install George Marshall as Secretary of Defense.


There was a problem: when the Department of Defense was created in 1947, section 202 of the 1947 National Security Act (which created the DoD, then called "The National Military Establishment") would not allow recently retired officers to serve as SecDef

https://t.co/bWx4h1OFah


Marshall had only retired as a 5-star General in 1947


Of course, by 1950 Marshall had already served as Secretary of State and had proposed the "Marshall Plan" for the recovery of Europe
HISTORY
Advertisement
Paul Poast
Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
Is it true that democracies don't go to war with each other?

Sort of. But I wouldn't base public policy on the finding.

Why? Let's turn to the data.

[THREAD]


The idea of a "Democratic Peace" is a widely held view that's been around for a long time.

By 1988, there already existed enough studies on the topic for Jack Levy to famously label Democratic Peace "an empirical law"


The earliest empirical work on the topic was the 1964 report by Dean Babst published in the "Wisconsin Sociologist"


Using the war participation data from Quincy Wright's "A Study of War", Babst produced the following two tables


The tables show that democracies were NOT on both sides (of course, Finland is awkward given that it fought WITH Nazi Germany against the Soviet Union).

Babst expanded his study beyond the World Wars in a 1972 paper in Industrial Research. He confirmed his finding.
GOVERNMENT
Paul Poast
Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
Let's talk about that "Longer Telegram" making the rounds...and why it's a

First, to be clear, it IS NOT a telegram. It's a report. I mean, it has a flipping 11.5 page executive "summary"...


...a two page table of contents...


...and clocks in at 62 pages (minus the forward and executive summary) or 73 pages (if you include the executive summary).

Of course, the author of "The Longer Telegram" calls it a "telegram" because they want it to be directly and explicitly compared to George Kennan's 1946 "Long Telegram" about US policy towards the Soviet Union.

https://t.co/rHikkOYuoT
WORLD
Paul Poast
Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
Was the attack on the US Capitol an attempted coup?

Rather than debate that question here (or in another forum), I'm making it an assignment. Specifically, I'm asking my Quantitative Security students to determine if it belongs in our coup/attempted coup datasets.

[THREAD]

A core goal of this course is to introduce students to how Large-N data on violence and security are created.

We put WAY TOO much emphasis on estimators & software (Stata v R 🙄); not enough on the quality of the data going into the analysis.

First, what happened? @johncarey03755 offers a succinct

Second, I'll ask the students to read some of the recent pieces that say the event was NOT a coup attempt.

These include...

...detailed twitter threads by
GOVERNMENT

More from Biden

Revolving Door Project
Revolving Door Project
@revolvingdoorDC
We called on Biden to remove ALL Trump holdovers who could legally be fired on day one. So how’d he do?

It was a good start but many more still need to be dismissed.

Let’s recap:

Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) Director Kathy Kraninger?

Fired.

United States Agency for Global Media (USAGM) Director Michael Pack?

Fired.

Voice of America Director Robert Reilly?

Fired.

General Counsel of the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) Peter Robb?

Fired.
BIDEN
Donald W. Obama
Donald W. Obama
@donaldwobama
THREAD: There has been a lot of criticism levied against @BernieSanders recently following his comment about "working within the context of what Biden wants" as Chairman of the Senate Budget Committee. This thread will explore why this really isn't all that surprising.


Over the last 20+ years, Bernie has endorsed every establishment Democrat running for President: Bill Clinton, Gore, Kerry, Obama, Hillary, and most recently, Biden. These candidates and what they represent largely contradict much of what Bernie says he stands for.


Chris Hedges theorized in 2015: "...All that energy and all of that money goes back into the Democratic party. [Bernie] functions as a sheepdog to corral progressives, left-leaning progressives, back into the embrace of the Democratic

Bernie's foreign policy positions are also telling. While he *did* vote against the US invasion of Iraq, he still voted to fund it once underway, & also backed the US bombing of Kosovo, US sanctions against Iran & Libya, & the Iraqi Liberation Act of

Bernie called closing the torturous gulag at Guantanamo a "complicated issue" and supported a proposal in 2009 to "prohibit funding to transfer, release, or incarcerate detainees detained at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, to or within the United States."

https://t.co/4p64SgeD1x
BIDEN
Advertisement
David C Lowery
David C Lowery
@davidclowery
Okay. That was quick. I’m done with Biden. Renata Hesse is total nightmare for workers. Her previous stint in DOJ had her tightening restrictions on songwriters while letting big tech off the hook. She is a pawn of Silicon Valley. Be very very afraid.


Former Google attorney Renata Hesse when working at DOJ antitrust tried to change the details of the BMI and ASCAP consent decrees that would have made a $1 Billion lawsuit against Google go away. This is horrendously corrupt. This is a terrible terrible start for Biden.

https://t.co/yM5ej1rIBN

https://t.co/hkc1B31cR7

https://t.co/J5f3C90qsh
BIDEN
\U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8I Support Our Military & Law Enforcement\U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8
🇺🇸I Support Our Milita...
@TheWiseOwl_AZ
1. Trust The Plan, Q

On Thurs. 14 Jan. right before B*iden’s Inauguration and due to foreign interference in the 2020 Presidential Election, Trump instigated the Insurgency Act, declared Martial Law and deferred his power to the US Military. Since then the US has been...
BIDEN
Numberonepal
Numberonepal
@numberonepal
1/ I don't know why @TheRealCletus1 can't do this himself, but I have to do it for him.

Odd, uncharacteristic and one-off items surrounding the Biden presidency.
1. Biden sworn in 14 minutes early..
2. Trump leaves on AF1, Biden flies small private jet.
BIDEN

You May Also Like

asif
asif
@aj_raja
PAKISTAN-INDIA WATER ISSUES – HOW INDIA STOPPED WATER IN PAKISTAN's CANALS IN 1948

Thread

After partition in 1947, the water system was also bifurcated between Pakistan n India.

India cheated Pakistan when on April 1, 1948, India suddenly n without warning stopped...
1/n


...the supply of waters flowing into Pakistan's Central Bari Doab and Dipalpur Canals.

The boundary award on the partition of the sub-continent had left the headworks of these canals in Indian territory, and in accepting it India had implied her willingness to leave...

2/n


...the historic distribution of common waters undisturbed.

India's action was therefore in flagrant disregard not only of international law n morality, but of her solemn commitments with Pakistan and a gross violation of this country's historical rights over common waters.

3/n

Faced with a threat of utter desolation of millions of acres of fertile land, Pakistan had perforce to sign a document with India in which she agreed to "India's progressively diminishing water supplies to these canals and to the West Punjab government's tapping...

4/n

...alternative resources".

A specific reservation was made in the document with regard to India's claim that she had full property rights over waters flowing into her territory, and could therefore use them as she liked.

The issue was, however, to be examined...

5/n
INDIA
Anshul Pandey
Anshul Pandey
@Anshulspiritual
TYPES OF SINS(PAAP) AS PER SKAND PURAN.

There are three types of Adharma- Sthool, Sukshma and Ati Sukshma. The group of Sins in the Sthul section carries you to Narak. These sins are committed through your thoughts, words and deeds.


It is of four types.

1)First is the sin committed by your mental state-
Thinking about woman other then your spouse.

A)Resolution to amass wealth from others.

B)Thinking ill about others.

C)Thinking of doing a forbidden or unworthy deed.

2)Second is the sin that you commit through your words :-

A)Talking irrelevant things.

B)Telling a lie.

C)Speaking harshly.

D)Talking ill about others.

3)Third type of sin is committed through your body actions-

A)Eating food not prescribed to you or forbidden.

B)Violence.

C)Eating fancier food.

D)Acquiring other's wealth.

So these twelve types of sins.

There are six types of sinners or Mahapatak

1)One not bowing his head in front of a temple.

2)Never praise Shiva.

3)People who behave untowardly way in front of Ishwar.

4)People who do not show respect to Ishwar, guru or one who are undignified.

5)One who do not behave properly.

6)One who is jealous of other bhakts.

Below is the list of sins which people may commit.

1)One who does not help a needy person or a person in pain,
RELIGION
Advertisement
Carol Forden
Carol Forden
@CarolForden
1. The major problem most startups face is marketing and the ability to carve out a niche, find and retain paying customers.

Even with a stellar developer team and a stellar product, your startup may not grow or survive without a great marketing and sales teams.

2. Start growing your audience before you’ve a product or an idea.

You should start promoting yourself and building your audience before you have a finished product or even before you have a great idea that you want to build.

3. Don’t wait to start building your audience after you’ve launched a product.

Most first-time developers actually ignore marketing.

They’re oblivious to the challenge of attracting people to take a look at something they’ve created.

4. At least until they see their first project crash and burn within hours of the launch.

There are so many times that I have seen developers spend countless hours building something, releasing it with no fanfare...

5. and only then trying to figure out how to promote it by asking marketing questions on Indie Hackers, Quora or Hacker News. Don’t make that mistake.
STARTUPS
Em\U0001f383jipedia \U0001f4d9
Em🎃jipedia 📙...
@Emojipedia
✨📱 iOS 12.1 📱✨
🗓 Release date: October 30, 2018
📝 New Emojis: 158
https://t.co/bx8XjhiCiB


New in iOS 12.1: 🥰 Smiling Face With 3 Hearts https://t.co/6eajdvueip


New in iOS 12.1: 🥵 Hot Face https://t.co/jhTv1elltB


New in iOS 12.1: 🥶 Cold Face https://t.co/EIjyl6yZrF


New in iOS 12.1: 🥳 Partying Face https://t.co/p8FDNEQ3LJ
SOCIAL MEDIA
Shalini Singh Sengar
Shalini Singh Sengar
@Maverickmusafir
Remembering Colonel Anil Kaul, VrC (Retd) on his 3rd Death Anniversary.

“It was October 12, 1987, exactly 5:55 pm as I was… coming out of the cupola of my T-72 tank on a steamy evening in an unknown place called Kokkuvil in the Jaffna district of Northern Sri Lanka.+


I froze in that confined space at what I saw. An LTTE militant stood at 60 meters aiming his rocket-propelled gun at my tank.

In a flash he fired. Probably having lost his nerve he aimed too low. The projectile hit the left mudguard of the tank, but for some inexplicable reason+


did not explode. It then hit the side of the main gun and then exploded on top of the turret, all in a fraction of a second. Before I knew, it seemed I had received a straight right punch so to say to my chin. I saw some blood appear on my left hand and there was a sharp drop in+

my eyesight.

Lt Colonel (now Lt Gen) Dalbir Singh, then Commanding Officer of 10 Para Commando, who was standing on the engine deck said to me, “Yaar what a close shave.”

He suddenly saw me and the look on his face told me that something was very very wrong with me. In that+

fraction of a second, as if it was a rewind of my entire life, thoughts raced through my life as to how and when I had landed myself in such a situation…

I asked my gunner to pull out a first field dressing (FFD) which is standard equipment in a first aid box carried in each+
HISTORY