The more Taliban insist they are meeting deal's conditions, the less need for a "review." Almost as if to pre-argue a US policy shift. /2
THREAD/ Taliban's messaging/ approach to Biden admin's policy review:
-high-level meetings with top US adversaries
-insists foreign troops will be targeted if not gone by 1 May
-repeats accusations of US non-compliance with deal (and insists a delay in withdrawal would be same).
The more Taliban insist they are meeting deal's conditions, the less need for a "review." Almost as if to pre-argue a US policy shift. /2
Who is Taliban's audience, as they display rigidity on the deal's terms and insist their interpretation is justified? /3
Or the interpretation & expectation of a swift return to power was genuine - and everything US did the past year seems like welching. /4
Since US does not seem to have begun re-negotiating or bargaining on a withdrawal extension, Taliban might feel boxed in by that, obliged to posture. /5
The further Taliban messaging hardens, the more difficult it might make any US attempt to smoothly extend its exit date. /6
Taliban are already striking. /7
Question is fair, but does not account for:
1) depth of Taliban's mistrust of US, combined with differing interpretations + year of delays + mixed signals. /8
More from Biden
Biden clearly should not do #1. The problem with #2 is that reconciliation delays the inevitable and creates a tiered system where issues that happen to be ineligible - like civil rights and democracy reform - are relegated to second-class status and left to die by filibuster.
This👇is the danger. By using reconciliation you’re conceding the point that major legislation deserves to pass by majority vote, but only certain kinds for arbitrary reasons. Plus the process itself is opaque and ugly. You risk laying a logistical & political trap for yourself.
All the “here’s what you can do through reconciliation” takes are correct but also look through the wrong end of the telescope. Any of the items mentioned, or a small number of them, would be relatively easy. But putting them all together in one leadership-driven mega package...
... with no committee involvement and no real oversight, enduring tough press for jamming a massive package through a close process and stories about lobbyist giveaways while dodging the adverse parliamentary rulings that are virtually inevitable and still maintaining 50 votes...
It’s possible! Maybe the mega-ness of the package ends up helping hold 50 votes. But the ugliness of the process is being underpriced. And to what end? You’re just delaying the inevitable since you can’t use it for civil rights nor can you allow civil rights to die by filibuster.
Biden will have two options:
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) January 23, 2021
1. Cut the price tag sharply to court GOP support.
2. Use reconciliation to do what he can with 50 votes\u2014some stuff has to go, like $15 wage.
(A 3rd option is nuke the filibuster but @PressSec says he doesn\u2019t favor that.)https://t.co/AV49BcmDaI
This👇is the danger. By using reconciliation you’re conceding the point that major legislation deserves to pass by majority vote, but only certain kinds for arbitrary reasons. Plus the process itself is opaque and ugly. You risk laying a logistical & political trap for yourself.
Obvious answer is 2b where you tie yourself in knots trying to go nuclear lite and totally lose the plot in the process
— Liam Donovan (@LPDonovan) January 23, 2021
All the “here’s what you can do through reconciliation” takes are correct but also look through the wrong end of the telescope. Any of the items mentioned, or a small number of them, would be relatively easy. But putting them all together in one leadership-driven mega package...
... with no committee involvement and no real oversight, enduring tough press for jamming a massive package through a close process and stories about lobbyist giveaways while dodging the adverse parliamentary rulings that are virtually inevitable and still maintaining 50 votes...
It’s possible! Maybe the mega-ness of the package ends up helping hold 50 votes. But the ugliness of the process is being underpriced. And to what end? You’re just delaying the inevitable since you can’t use it for civil rights nor can you allow civil rights to die by filibuster.
