Trading | Buzz Chronicles

Hilary Abernathay. Som...
@atatimelikethis

A story of Mafia Integrity

You've heard bits of this
Funds offshore
Don't invest in the UK
Companies and factories moved out
Henry viii powers used to vanish Tax evasion and money laundering law

But the mafia at the heart of the Conservative party just got started.

Brexit deals may be closing, but the "brains" behind it,
whose gift is decades of damage,
who moved assets to profit from that damage
Is tightening its grip.

These are not the people to trust to decide our future or trade.

Unless you want it stolen

The examples
Tax evasion
Offshore funds
Currency speculation.

They're all a little distant.

So what about some examples closer to you or me?

Your word is your bond. Your promise is your reputation.

How do they build that reputation for our country?

1. China bought us Jan-March with heavy #Covid19 containment measures and clampdowns.

We wasted it.
Then worsened it, leaving airports open

Mafia called our response perfect and demanded reparations for the "China Virus"

2. Roles just reversed. Now WE have a new homegrown highly transmissible variant of #Covid19.

So where are the mafia? Shouldn't they be calling this the "English Virus?"

And screaming Blue Murder that Priti has again failed on airport checks, outbound this time?

Silence.

Eric Basmajian
@EPBResearch

It is difficult to change a 10-year trend.

Long-term expectations do not change as frequently as daily market fluctuations would make it seem.

A quick update on Treasury rates through the lens of the DKW model

*As of Dec. 31*

1/

In previous threads, I made the distinction between long-term secular trends in growth and inflation and shorter-term (2-6 quarters) trends in nGDP

Consensus continues to conflate the inflation story, mixing and matching long-term and short-term charts to fit what is generally a secular inflation narrative.

Here are my two cents to make the distinction clear.

1)
— Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch) January 4, 2021

Right now, the long-term trends are unaltered because long-term trends just don't change that fast but we have a very strong cyclical upturn in the economy, centered primarily on the shift to goods consumption bolstering the manufacturing sector and industrial commodities.

3/

As long as the industrial sector continues to roar, TSY rates will have an upward bias as rates generally follow the trend in nGDP growth

A 10yr TSY has longterm expectations embedded in the rate so several qrters, while important, won't necessarily change the longterm trend

4/

This is confirmed by the Dec update to the DKW model which breaks down *actual* inflation expectations, the expected real short-term rate (real growth), term premium, liquidity premium etc.

The DKW model is one of many models that is useful but has many limitations.

5/

Anton Muscatelli
@UofGVC

1. Some initial thoughts on the U.K.-EU trade deal, in advance of seeing the text, which is reported to be 2,000 pages plus...A THREAD (1/10)

2. As has been said repeatedly, this is what was described at the start of the process as a hard Brexit: the U.K. will be outside the Single Market and the Customs Union. There will be no tariffs or quotas but customs checks etc will erect substantial trade barriers in EU trade

3.There will be nothing for services except in areas where the EU will unilaterally grant equivalence. The EU will play hardball on this eg at end Nov EU made it clear that European derivatives trading will be limited to platforms inside the EU or third countries with equivalence

4. There will be areas where some products will be excluded from the trade deal. Seed potatoes has been mentioned - there may be other surprises yet.

5. Who moved? It seems as if the U.K. moved substantially on fish and the EU moved on its initial position on the LPF and the arbitration mechanism: it wanted something which involved automatic ratcheting - it feels more like a standard FTA between EU and non-European countries.

Silent Cal
@KralcTrebor

You can get a sense for how much net stock @RobinhoodApp customers were buying from the size of capital RH just

The $1bn is to cover future possible activity, so it doesn't matter for looking backwards.

It does confirm that solvency concerns drove the restriction. You don't raise 1bn of equity to cover your tracks if nefarious, nor if the restrictions were a tap from regulators.

They drew $500-600m and presumably met their NSCC margin call with cushion. Say they posted $350m (guess - you don't draw $500m to post $62m and shut down trading methinks).

I did a quick guesstimate yesterday - 20m normal going to 200m on 4x VaR and 800m net unsettled buys of GME.

That ain't 350m. So either the size of GME buy and/or VaR multiple are ~2x that or DTCC demanded more than 10% margin on unsettled GME trades.

You can't get a tight range of what the net GME buy was outstanding without knowing more, but you can bound it - the net GME buy *10% < 500m so less than 5bn ... not v helpful frankly.

Benchmark
@GetBenchmarkCo

🚨 BUY ALERT $CDON +23% 🚨

$CDON was founded in 1999 and was part of the Qliro group until September 2020

⭐️ It was then spun out at started operating as a fully independent retailer

🌐 It is now a leading e-commerce player, but is still valued as a brick & mortar retailer

The company generated most of its revenue from its own sales (first party sales)

🛍 It is now moving towards an “e-commerce platform” / marketplace positioning where merchants retail products and send these to clients

$CDON is the leading e-commerce player in the Nordics, it counts 2m active customers and over 1,300 merchants

💸 It retails over 8m products and scored a Gross Merchandise Value of SEK 2.4B ($ 288m) in the 12 months leading to Q3 ’20

$CDON belongs to a cohort of local e-commerce player which have successfully managed to fight $AMZN’s dominance

🇳🇱 https://t.co/jUdtPRTkdU in the Netherlands is the leading e-commerce player with 111m website visits (+30% in H2 ’20) vs 33m for $AMZN (+67% in H2 ’20)

🇫🇷 https://t.co/r9rdGvrx9d in France is the N°2 e-commerce player with 84m visits (+21% in H2 ’20) vs 270m for $AMZN (+42% in H2 ’20)

🇸🇪 https://t.co/m8OyFnNYNJ in Sweden scored 7m visits (+27% in H2 ’20) vs 10.3m for $AMZN (entered market in 2020)

Jalil Rasheed
@jalilword

Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) has become very popular globally, especially in USA. SPACs are known as blank cheque companies, because its a shell company with cash. What is it? How does it work? This is a thread.

(1) A group of people, known as the promoters / founders will list a company (SPAC) on the stock exchange. They are the key management who are also shareholders of the SPAC.

(2) SPAC is a listed company, but has no assets, no business, nothing. It only has cash raised from IPO. Shell company with lots of money.

(3) Once listed, the SPAC will use this money to acquire another company and merge it into the SPAC. Once merged, the company is no longer a SPAC, as it now has assets & a core business and operates like any listed company.

(4) The money raised from IPO will be kept in a trust, until an acquisition is identified, closed & approved by regulators & shareholders. The operating expense of the SPAC is borned by promoters until the SPAC turns into company.

Manu Priya
@IamPriyaManu

Friend: Suggest me a battery stock for long term.

Me: Why do you want to invest in battery stock?

Friend: Future is about EV so.

Me: Good :)

Me: Battery is going to be huge portion in EV price.

[1/n]

2/

Me: Since batteries is going to be major cost component I feel like big companies source raw materials like lithium, Nickel, Iron and setup their own plants for manufacturing those.

I would rather play passive on EV like embedded and IOT devices in EV, Charging stations etc.

3/

Companies like Tesla already have Gigawatt factories and planning to setup Terawatt factory within this decade.

Researching extensively on all life cycles of battery, from structure to packing.

Researching alternatives to lithium batteries, since lithium is scarce.

4/

Already Tesla found few potential replacements for Lithium, working on few challenges that are pised by potential elements and mentioned the same during this year investor meet.

If you guys know Elon then you'll be already knowing that he just doesn't give up.

5/

Indian companies like Tata Chemicals investing 4k Crores for plant and another 500-1000 crores for Battery recycling plant.

Big companies like Maruti already acquired land in Gujarath for this EV purposes.

Hitachi ABB power has fast charging technology.

Gary Black
@garyblack00

The guy I used to work with (I’ll call him “Q”) who shorted $TSLA at $600 in Dec called me today:

Q: Why is $TSLA up 6% on no news?

GB: Because it was down 8% yesterday on no news - unless you call a 10 bp rise in treasury yields and $BTC collapsing news. You still short?

I had a two-day email exchange with a guy I used to work with who now runs a $600M hedge fund and shorted $TSLA at $600. He\u2019s now kicking himself as $TSLA approaches $700. Amazingly:

1/ He\u2019s a value investor who doesn\u2019t own growth stocks, but thinks he can short growth stocks.
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) December 28, 2020

2/ Q: Of course I’m still short. It’s up another 30% since we talked two weeks ago. It’s all mo’.

GB: $TSLA MIC Y has a 4 mo wait. It’s entering India. Analysts are playing leapfrog raising PTs. Active mgrs have to own it or get fired. It’s cheap at 80x 2022 EPS vs 55% growth.

3/ Q: Your earnings estimates are like twice consensus.

GB: The Street’s been wrong on $TSLA forever. Why do you listen to them? You really shouldn’t be short going into Biden’s inaugural speech and the FY’21 volume guide at the end of Jan. You’re going to get run over.

4/ Q: Whatever.

GB: Did you rent a Tesla for a week like I told you?

Q: No. You know I don’t drive.

GB: Did you build a $TSLA 5-yr volume, earnings, cash flow model?

Q: No. No one can forecast out 5 years.

GB: Did you talk to any Audi or BMW dealers? Or Tesla owners?

5/ Q: I don’t have time for that.

GB: Q, you haven’t done any real research. $TSLA ‘s up 40% since you shorted it. Maybe you should figure out why it keeps going up.

Q: It keeps going up because people like you are pumping it.

GB: You’re giving people like me too much credit.