Are private investors just a bunch of happy gamblers who should let the “real deal” aka professionals invest for them instead? Idk, maybe, maybe not. Peoples own choice, right? But I have an opinion about how media undervalue private investors.
THREAD: STOP UNDERVALUE THE PRIVATE INVESTORS
The misunderstanding of private investors - primarily known as amateur investors when talked about - done by media and professionals is too much.
Are you ready? Hope you will enjoy this one and bring your voice into the debate👇👇
Are private investors just a bunch of happy gamblers who should let the “real deal” aka professionals invest for them instead? Idk, maybe, maybe not. Peoples own choice, right? But I have an opinion about how media undervalue private investors.
There are many smart persons out there, which have a great skill to hold the same (or more ) knowledge and understanding than professionals.
Why? Because the world has developed so much and the information-level have changed💨
Earlier on you would not get access to accounting; it could be sent by Bloomberg terminal, send by post and even cost money. Now every accounting for every public company is available for free right after disclosure.
Professionals had exclusive access to the board, and even the founders, the professionals had access to industry experts and could connect the dots faster.
Now every interview with the company, blog post by an industry leader or a Q&A with founders is available realtime.
Professionals have a great network (and they really do), which earlier on was an edge. But now the private investors have a great network as well (thank you SoMe!). Look at Twitter, Reddit, Discord, Facebook groups... Crazy scale on crowdsourcing!
@chamath said it great here:
“r/wallstreetbets is now the largest hedge fund in the world.
Excepts it’s completely decentralized and entirely democratic.”
https://t.co/vgzpxrqTmz
r/wallstreetbets is now the largest hedge fund in the world.
— Chamath Palihapitiya (@chamath) January 30, 2021
Excepts it\u2019s completely decentralized and entirely democratic.
I think the HF, banks and PE-people still have a significant advantage in speed and execution (and network)!. But if both parties – private and Professionals – are longterm, I think the edge a lot smaller than many think.
They live with their math-models, they have never been “hustling” on a company, they have never disrupted anything themselves. They have never tried to make a campaign on SoMe, getting funding, setting up a company from the bottom or dealt with a PR-crisis, etc.
The above is more like an entrepreneur, but it not limited to that. A software developer has (hopefully) more knowledge about this sector than an HF-analyst, which measure the sector by “old” financial-reports.
And common for the above is that they probably have a greater network than everybody else (=outsiders) inside their sector. That is an edge.
It is a little bit funny how every professional think they can judge a sector or company better than private. Still, the private can definitely not do a better job at investing than the Professionals. Ironic, right?
I think the media and Professionals undervalued how competent people are out there, how willing people are to share their info and work together. And least: How much information there are available.
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Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.
Have covered:
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
2. Workbook
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen
1. Keeps following volatility super closely.
Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.
Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.
I am quite different from your style. I follow the market's volatility very closely. I have mock positions in 7-8 different strategies which allows me to stay connected. Whichever gives best profit is usually the one i trade in.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) August 13, 2019
2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.
Anilji most of the time these days Theta only falls when market moves. So the Theta actually falls where market has moved to, not where our position was in the first place. By shifting we can come close to capturing the Theta fall but not always.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) June 24, 2019
3. If you're an options seller then sell only when volatility is dropping, there is a high probability of you making the right trade and getting profit as a result
He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.
This week has been great so far. The main aim is to be in the right side of the volatility, rest the market will reward.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) July 3, 2019
4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega
Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.
There is a difference between theta decay & fall in vega. Decay is certain but there is no guaranteed profit as delta moves can increase cost. Fall in vega on the other hand is backed by a powerful force that sells options and gives handsome returns. Our job is to identify them.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) February 12, 2020