GB: $TSLA MIC Y has a 4 mo wait. It’s entering India. Analysts are playing leapfrog raising PTs. Active mgrs have to own it or get fired. It’s cheap at 80x 2022 EPS vs 55% growth.
The guy I used to work with (I’ll call him “Q”) who shorted $TSLA at $600 in Dec called me today:
Q: Why is $TSLA up 6% on no news?
GB: Because it was down 8% yesterday on no news - unless you call a 10 bp rise in treasury yields and $BTC collapsing news. You still short?
I had a two-day email exchange with a guy I used to work with who now runs a $600M hedge fund and shorted $TSLA at $600. He\u2019s now kicking himself as $TSLA approaches $700. Amazingly:
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) December 28, 2020
1/ He\u2019s a value investor who doesn\u2019t own growth stocks, but thinks he can short growth stocks.
GB: $TSLA MIC Y has a 4 mo wait. It’s entering India. Analysts are playing leapfrog raising PTs. Active mgrs have to own it or get fired. It’s cheap at 80x 2022 EPS vs 55% growth.
GB: The Street’s been wrong on $TSLA forever. Why do you listen to them? You really shouldn’t be short going into Biden’s inaugural speech and the FY’21 volume guide at the end of Jan. You’re going to get run over.
GB: Did you rent a Tesla for a week like I told you?
Q: No. You know I don’t drive.
GB: Did you build a $TSLA 5-yr volume, earnings, cash flow model?
Q: No. No one can forecast out 5 years.
GB: Did you talk to any Audi or BMW dealers? Or Tesla owners?
GB: Q, you haven’t done any real research. $TSLA ‘s up 40% since you shorted it. Maybe you should figure out why it keeps going up.
Q: It keeps going up because people like you are pumping it.
GB: You’re giving people like me too much credit.
GB: You’re using the wrong metric. TSLA’s future competitors are $AAPL, $GOOG, $AMZN, $BIDU, plus Rivian, Lucid and new SPACs launching dedicated EVs. The legacy guys are dead.
GB: CNBC is looking backward at 2020, when Tesla’s plant was shut for 7 weeks, and capacity was re-purposed to produce Y CUVs, which more than doubled TSLA’s TAM, but none got to Europe.
GB: And $AAPL was a cellphone company that destroyed Blackberry, Nokia, and Motorola. $AMZN was a online bookseller that destroyed the entire retail industry.
More from Trading
1/ Feels like a good time to tell the story of how I went from broke to a millionaire to broke again in 2017/18 again...
Yesterday was brutal for some people...
Losing life-changing money sucks, losing any money sucks...you can chase the market or you can change your strategy.
2/ The original thread is gone but you can read it here.
https://t.co/cLLNs75rB0
tl;dr
- Traded $32k to $1.2m
- Thought I was a genius
- Made poor investments
- Didn't conserve capital
- Peaked at 150 BTC
- Lost nearly all of it
2 weeks from losing my house + no income. Oops.
3/ I am going to assume you are in it for the money rather than the tech. Yeah, you might Tweet about the amazing blockchaining of cross-border payments and oracles yadda yadda...really, you are in it to make money.
If you are really in it for the tech, go and build something.
4/ Okay, so if you want to make money, trading is super hard, you are trading against:
- Better traders than you
- People who can move markets
- Unknown information
And if you are trading with leverage you might blow up your account with the volatility.
5/ If you are not trading, you are investing. Okay, so what are you investing in?
I made the decision that the crypto with the best opportunity of existing in 10 years is #Bitcoin:
- Solves a genuine problem
- The right tech
- A proven track record
Yesterday was brutal for some people...
Losing life-changing money sucks, losing any money sucks...you can chase the market or you can change your strategy.
2/ The original thread is gone but you can read it here.
https://t.co/cLLNs75rB0
tl;dr
- Traded $32k to $1.2m
- Thought I was a genius
- Made poor investments
- Didn't conserve capital
- Peaked at 150 BTC
- Lost nearly all of it
2 weeks from losing my house + no income. Oops.
3/ I am going to assume you are in it for the money rather than the tech. Yeah, you might Tweet about the amazing blockchaining of cross-border payments and oracles yadda yadda...really, you are in it to make money.
If you are really in it for the tech, go and build something.
4/ Okay, so if you want to make money, trading is super hard, you are trading against:
- Better traders than you
- People who can move markets
- Unknown information
And if you are trading with leverage you might blow up your account with the volatility.
5/ If you are not trading, you are investing. Okay, so what are you investing in?
I made the decision that the crypto with the best opportunity of existing in 10 years is #Bitcoin:
- Solves a genuine problem
- The right tech
- A proven track record