1. Some initial thoughts on the U.K.-EU trade deal, in advance of seeing the text, which is reported to be 2,000 pages plus...A THREAD (1/10)

2. As has been said repeatedly, this is what was described at the start of the process as a hard Brexit: the U.K. will be outside the Single Market and the Customs Union. There will be no tariffs or quotas but customs checks etc will erect substantial trade barriers in EU trade

3.There will be nothing for services except in areas where the EU will unilaterally grant equivalence. The EU will play hardball on this eg at end Nov EU made it clear that European derivatives trading will be limited to platforms inside the EU or third countries with equivalence

4. There will be areas where some products will be excluded from the trade deal. Seed potatoes has been mentioned - there may be other surprises yet.

5. Who moved? It seems as if the U.K. moved substantially on fish and the EU moved on its initial position on the LPF and the arbitration mechanism: it wanted something which involved automatic ratcheting - it feels more like a standard FTA between EU and non-European countries.