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I wrote about the exceptional opportunity in US NatGas about a week ago, and things are moving quickly...
Letās do an update and go through some exciting developments. In short, the picture for NatGas continues to improve from all angles.
A thread.
Letās do an update and go through some exciting developments. In short, the picture for NatGas continues to improve from all angles.
A thread.
Time for a thread about US NatGas and why it will surprise to the upside...
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) October 22, 2020
There\u2019s an exceptional opportunity setting up in the energy space, in particular for US NatGas and related equities.
I\u2019ll explain the setup in this thread and also reveal my top pick. \U0001f920
Iām just going to lay this down now so itās on record:
Trumpās campaign has used the exact same strategy it used in 2016: smear his opponent; attempt to demotivate their base; and actively attempt to prevent or obstruct them from voting.
It is a push-down strategy.
1/
In 2016, didnāt win because he made a winning case to a big enough population.
He won because his opponentās turnout was pushed down by a full-court press that tapped everything from misogyny to poll tampering.
2/
He is trying to run the exact same playbook against Biden.
But it isnāt working because:
1) We now understand it
2) Many who were effectively suppressed last time have had four years to see what that cost
3) Biden isnāt susceptible to the same illegitimate biases
3/
And 4) Many people who first engaged with politics because of Bernie are now well past the ā...or Bustā vibe of 2016 and are now solidly active progressive voters
The media, pundits and analysts never fully reckoned with the extent to which Hillaryās vote was just suppressed.
4/
Instead, they overestimated Trumpās strength.
Trump only won by smothering just enough of his opponentās support.
Some of the voters who that succeeded with in 2016 are vehemently un-smotherable this time.
5/
Trumpās campaign has used the exact same strategy it used in 2016: smear his opponent; attempt to demotivate their base; and actively attempt to prevent or obstruct them from voting.
It is a push-down strategy.
1/
Striking finding from NYT/Siena: Biden has big leads among those who didn't vote in 2016. And they make up non-trivial portions of the electorate.
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) November 1, 2020
Here are Biden's leads, followed by their vote share:
WI +19 (11%)
FL +17 (18%)
PA +12 (18%)
AZ +7 (22%)
It's a new electorate.
In 2016, didnāt win because he made a winning case to a big enough population.
He won because his opponentās turnout was pushed down by a full-court press that tapped everything from misogyny to poll tampering.
2/
He is trying to run the exact same playbook against Biden.
But it isnāt working because:
1) We now understand it
2) Many who were effectively suppressed last time have had four years to see what that cost
3) Biden isnāt susceptible to the same illegitimate biases
3/
And 4) Many people who first engaged with politics because of Bernie are now well past the ā...or Bustā vibe of 2016 and are now solidly active progressive voters
The media, pundits and analysts never fully reckoned with the extent to which Hillaryās vote was just suppressed.
4/
Instead, they overestimated Trumpās strength.
Trump only won by smothering just enough of his opponentās support.
Some of the voters who that succeeded with in 2016 are vehemently un-smotherable this time.
5/
Well, this is certainly an interesting variation on the old candy tampering myth.
Ever wondered how this Halloween myth got started? Here's a quick thread.
The first time trick-or-treating apeared in a movie or show was Disney's 1952 short "Trick Or Treat."
It was a relatively new phenomenon at the time. Previously, kids dressed up & messed up people's yards. Now you could bribe kids with treats so they wouldn't give you a trick.
But Donald being stubborn, he decided to give the kids lit firecrackers.
I don't think this is where the myth started, but it's the first example of an adult using trick-or-treating o play a trick on kids.
In 1964, a housewife made prank packages of inedible items to hand out to trick-or-treaters she thought were too old. These held random kitchen items like steel wool, dog biscuits, and ant poison clearly marked as poison.
The poison upset another parent, who had her arrested.
It seems the story was warped in retellings, and parents worried each other with tales of poison candy. Sometimes kids pranked their parents, i.e. "look what I found in my candy!"
Fun Size candy showed up in 1968, presenting a safe alternative to unwrapped treats.
Ever wondered how this Halloween myth got started? Here's a quick thread.
Halloween candy and marijuana edibles can look similar, so Indiana State Police are sharing safety tips so parents can look out.\u200b https://t.co/S2pcJYpgTV
— ABC 7 Chicago (@ABC7Chicago) October 30, 2020
The first time trick-or-treating apeared in a movie or show was Disney's 1952 short "Trick Or Treat."
It was a relatively new phenomenon at the time. Previously, kids dressed up & messed up people's yards. Now you could bribe kids with treats so they wouldn't give you a trick.

But Donald being stubborn, he decided to give the kids lit firecrackers.
I don't think this is where the myth started, but it's the first example of an adult using trick-or-treating o play a trick on kids.

In 1964, a housewife made prank packages of inedible items to hand out to trick-or-treaters she thought were too old. These held random kitchen items like steel wool, dog biscuits, and ant poison clearly marked as poison.
The poison upset another parent, who had her arrested.

It seems the story was warped in retellings, and parents worried each other with tales of poison candy. Sometimes kids pranked their parents, i.e. "look what I found in my candy!"
Fun Size candy showed up in 1968, presenting a safe alternative to unwrapped treats.
