I’m just going to lay this down now so it’s on record:

Trump’s campaign has used the exact same strategy it used in 2016: smear his opponent; attempt to demotivate their base; and actively attempt to prevent or obstruct them from voting.

It is a push-down strategy.

1/

In 2016, didn’t win because he made a winning case to a big enough population.

He won because his opponent’s turnout was pushed down by a full-court press that tapped everything from misogyny to poll tampering.

2/
He is trying to run the exact same playbook against Biden.

But it isn’t working because:

1) We now understand it

2) Many who were effectively suppressed last time have had four years to see what that cost

3) Biden isn’t susceptible to the same illegitimate biases

3/
And 4) Many people who first engaged with politics because of Bernie are now well past the “...or Bust” vibe of 2016 and are now solidly active progressive voters

The media, pundits and analysts never fully reckoned with the extent to which Hillary’s vote was just suppressed.
4/
Instead, they overestimated Trump’s strength.

Trump only won by smothering just enough of his opponent’s support.

Some of the voters who that succeeded with in 2016 are vehemently un-smotherable this time.

5/
And what is left is an electorate that will look quite changed since 2016 in ways that are all bad for Trump.

Trump is a one-trick pony: depress the other guy’s votes. It worked in 2016. The whole system helped.

The media loves to hate Hillary too much to fully admit that.

6/
It not only isn’t working in 2020, it has ignited a vigilance among some who were taken in by it.

Trump is going to lose. It isn’t going to be a nail-biter.

And the post mortems will go right on missing the fact that Trump never, ever held the backing of enough ppl to win.

7/
I am already pre-annoyed by the breathless post-election analyses of the “startling” extent of Trump’s defeat, the “unpredicted weakness” in his support.

It was always right there to see.

8/
I did the same yelling into the abyss about Bernie’s hard ceiling in the primaries while David Plouffe and the other professional talking heads were swooning over momentum that wasn’t.

It is right there to see.

9/
Trump is no different than he was in 2016.

His support is no different.

It wasn’t enough then. It isn’t enough now.

It took a perfect storm in 2016.

Now he can’t even rustle the drapes.

And that was always right there to see.

But boring races don’t sell ad space.

10/10
As I was saying...

Right. There. To. See. https://t.co/oI4mBi0FpU

More from The Hoarse Whisperer

I read up on the last several men the federal government rushed to put to death this past month.

Sister Helen is 100% right. None of the defendants would have come anywhere near a death penalty had they had money and privilege.

1/


Take the person executed last night: Dustin Higgs.

Higgs, another man and a woman were involved in the murder of two people. The trio had picked the victims up and taken them to a desolate area where they were shot.

2/

The reasons for the shooting were unclear. To make their case, prosecutors offered a deal to Higgs’ two associates: testify that Higgs had orchestrated the killing and they would be charged with lesser offenses.

So, the two did.

3/

The man testified that he had actually been the shooter and had murdered the two women - but had been told to do so by Higgs.

The actual murderer avoided the death penalty. The other associate got a lighter sentence.

4/

I entirely 1,000% believe that prosecutors would have never even pursued the death penalty had Higgs had intimidating counsel.

Epstein got a walk for a boatload of crimes, in part, because prosecutors were intimidated of the fight they’d face.

5/
This is the most significant window into Trump’s psychology since the election.

He is so gravely wounded by his loss, even the usual protections a narcissist employs aren’t saving him.

1/


The pattern for Trump has always been the exact same without deviation.

When faced with a public humiliation, he 1) broods; 2) scapegoats; 3) adopts a face-saving excuse; and 4) gets back on his feet.

He isn’t reaching #4.

2/

It is remarkable and striking.

He is so debilitated by the public humiliation of having lost, he can’t even function in the dysfunctional way he used to...

Normally, he’d be posturing about how his loss was actually somehow a win for him. He’d be claiming he benefitted.

3/

He would have fully adopted a narrative about what happened *in the past* and would be talking about how great things were for him *in the present and future*.

Instead, he is a month into a spiral he can’t pull himself out of where he is still trying to change the outcome.

4/

I thought a trip to Mar a Lago would pull him out of that.

He’d be surrounded by people who looked at him adoringly and nodded at his nonsense with love and reverence.

He’d see that his facade of specialness was still intact *there at least*.

5/
So, in Trump’s narcissistic cycle, there is a predictable sequence of phases that play out whenever he is facing a public humiliation.

1) Double Down Donnie
2) Loco Lawn Sprinkler
3) Sad and Silent
4) Hunting for Scapegoats
5) Riding the Excuse Train

1/


Whenever Trump is facing a public embarrassment he sees coming, he first doubles down on all of the stupid shit that put him in that hole to begin with. He has no other tools.

Then he frantically spins like a lawn sprinkler desperately spraying unhinged nonsense.

2/

The worse the pending embarrassment, the more unhinged the nutbaggery out of his mouth.

See: the past week.

It has been just a firehose of industrial-grade batshit.

3/

Then, when the embarrassment arrives, he gets quiet and sullen like a chastised little boy and runs off to cocoon.

Listen to the clips from the thread in the first post. Talking about his presidency in a tired, dejected past tense.

No aggression. No real fight left.

4/

Trump entirely disregulates as the embarrassment train is bearing down. He seems out of control because he is. No control over himself. An overtired toddler x1,000.

Then the train passes the point of avoidance though and Trump shrinks into a sad ball (albeit briefly).

5/

More from Politics

Handy guide for Dominic Raab and other Brexiteers, and for anyone keen to replace our EU trade with trade with the rest of the world on WTO terms...


You can't magic away the vast distances involved. Clue: we fly in only 1/192th of our trade compared to the amount that arrives via sea


But even if you invented a teleporter tomorrow, WTO terms are so bad, so stacked against us, that a no-deal Brexit will be a total economic disaster


And while the Brexiteers fantasise, real jobs are being lost, investments are drying up, companies are moving assets to the EU27 or redomiciling. All already happened and happening right now, not in some mythical


Of course, there are many, many myths that Brexiteers perpetuate that are total fiction. You've seen a couple of them already. The thread below busts a whole lot

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