He won because his opponent’s turnout was pushed down by a full-court press that tapped everything from misogyny to poll tampering.
2/
I’m just going to lay this down now so it’s on record:
Trump’s campaign has used the exact same strategy it used in 2016: smear his opponent; attempt to demotivate their base; and actively attempt to prevent or obstruct them from voting.
It is a push-down strategy.
1/
Striking finding from NYT/Siena: Biden has big leads among those who didn't vote in 2016. And they make up non-trivial portions of the electorate.
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) November 1, 2020
Here are Biden's leads, followed by their vote share:
WI +19 (11%)
FL +17 (18%)
PA +12 (18%)
AZ +7 (22%)
It's a new electorate.
He won because his opponent’s turnout was pushed down by a full-court press that tapped everything from misogyny to poll tampering.
2/
But it isn’t working because:
1) We now understand it
2) Many who were effectively suppressed last time have had four years to see what that cost
3) Biden isn’t susceptible to the same illegitimate biases
3/
The media, pundits and analysts never fully reckoned with the extent to which Hillary’s vote was just suppressed.
4/
Trump only won by smothering just enough of his opponent’s support.
Some of the voters who that succeeded with in 2016 are vehemently un-smotherable this time.
5/
Trump is a one-trick pony: depress the other guy’s votes. It worked in 2016. The whole system helped.
The media loves to hate Hillary too much to fully admit that.
6/
Trump is going to lose. It isn’t going to be a nail-biter.
And the post mortems will go right on missing the fact that Trump never, ever held the backing of enough ppl to win.
7/
It was always right there to see.
8/
It is right there to see.
9/
His support is no different.
It wasn’t enough then. It isn’t enough now.
It took a perfect storm in 2016.
Now he can’t even rustle the drapes.
And that was always right there to see.
But boring races don’t sell ad space.
10/10
Right. There. To. See. https://t.co/oI4mBi0FpU
Per my average of polls going back to 1948, Trump has set a new record as the first incumbent president to poll below 47% of the national two-party vote every day since June 1st of the election cycle.
— G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) November 1, 2020
More from The Hoarse Whisperer
I read up on the last several men the federal government rushed to put to death this past month.
Sister Helen is 100% right. None of the defendants would have come anywhere near a death penalty had they had money and privilege.
1/
Take the person executed last night: Dustin Higgs.
Higgs, another man and a woman were involved in the murder of two people. The trio had picked the victims up and taken them to a desolate area where they were shot.
2/
The reasons for the shooting were unclear. To make their case, prosecutors offered a deal to Higgs’ two associates: testify that Higgs had orchestrated the killing and they would be charged with lesser offenses.
So, the two did.
3/
The man testified that he had actually been the shooter and had murdered the two women - but had been told to do so by Higgs.
The actual murderer avoided the death penalty. The other associate got a lighter sentence.
4/
I entirely 1,000% believe that prosecutors would have never even pursued the death penalty had Higgs had intimidating counsel.
Epstein got a walk for a boatload of crimes, in part, because prosecutors were intimidated of the fight they’d face.
5/
Sister Helen is 100% right. None of the defendants would have come anywhere near a death penalty had they had money and privilege.
1/
The death penalty is fundamentally a poor person\u2019s issue. Over nearly 40 years of visiting death row facilities across the United States, I have never met a single person with money or resources. Capital punishment means \u201cthose without the capital get the punishment.\u201d
— Sister Helen Prejean (@helenprejean) January 16, 2021
Take the person executed last night: Dustin Higgs.
Higgs, another man and a woman were involved in the murder of two people. The trio had picked the victims up and taken them to a desolate area where they were shot.
2/
The reasons for the shooting were unclear. To make their case, prosecutors offered a deal to Higgs’ two associates: testify that Higgs had orchestrated the killing and they would be charged with lesser offenses.
So, the two did.
3/
The man testified that he had actually been the shooter and had murdered the two women - but had been told to do so by Higgs.
The actual murderer avoided the death penalty. The other associate got a lighter sentence.
4/
I entirely 1,000% believe that prosecutors would have never even pursued the death penalty had Higgs had intimidating counsel.
Epstein got a walk for a boatload of crimes, in part, because prosecutors were intimidated of the fight they’d face.
5/
This is the most significant window into Trump’s psychology since the election.
He is so gravely wounded by his loss, even the usual protections a narcissist employs aren’t saving him.
1/
The pattern for Trump has always been the exact same without deviation.
When faced with a public humiliation, he 1) broods; 2) scapegoats; 3) adopts a face-saving excuse; and 4) gets back on his feet.
He isn’t reaching #4.
2/
It is remarkable and striking.
He is so debilitated by the public humiliation of having lost, he can’t even function in the dysfunctional way he used to...
Normally, he’d be posturing about how his loss was actually somehow a win for him. He’d be claiming he benefitted.
3/
He would have fully adopted a narrative about what happened *in the past* and would be talking about how great things were for him *in the present and future*.
Instead, he is a month into a spiral he can’t pull himself out of where he is still trying to change the outcome.
4/
I thought a trip to Mar a Lago would pull him out of that.
He’d be surrounded by people who looked at him adoringly and nodded at his nonsense with love and reverence.
He’d see that his facade of specialness was still intact *there at least*.
5/
He is so gravely wounded by his loss, even the usual protections a narcissist employs aren’t saving him.
1/
Trump is flying back from Mar-a-Lago today to the White House. He usually stays through the holiday. He will miss the New Year festivities at his precious club. The White House did not provide a reason for this early departure. So...watch out.
— David Corn (@DavidCornDC) December 31, 2020
The pattern for Trump has always been the exact same without deviation.
When faced with a public humiliation, he 1) broods; 2) scapegoats; 3) adopts a face-saving excuse; and 4) gets back on his feet.
He isn’t reaching #4.
2/
It is remarkable and striking.
He is so debilitated by the public humiliation of having lost, he can’t even function in the dysfunctional way he used to...
Normally, he’d be posturing about how his loss was actually somehow a win for him. He’d be claiming he benefitted.
3/
He would have fully adopted a narrative about what happened *in the past* and would be talking about how great things were for him *in the present and future*.
Instead, he is a month into a spiral he can’t pull himself out of where he is still trying to change the outcome.
4/
I thought a trip to Mar a Lago would pull him out of that.
He’d be surrounded by people who looked at him adoringly and nodded at his nonsense with love and reverence.
He’d see that his facade of specialness was still intact *there at least*.
5/
So, in Trump’s narcissistic cycle, there is a predictable sequence of phases that play out whenever he is facing a public humiliation.
1) Double Down Donnie
2) Loco Lawn Sprinkler
3) Sad and Silent
4) Hunting for Scapegoats
5) Riding the Excuse Train
1/
Whenever Trump is facing a public embarrassment he sees coming, he first doubles down on all of the stupid shit that put him in that hole to begin with. He has no other tools.
Then he frantically spins like a lawn sprinkler desperately spraying unhinged nonsense.
2/
The worse the pending embarrassment, the more unhinged the nutbaggery out of his mouth.
See: the past week.
It has been just a firehose of industrial-grade batshit.
3/
Then, when the embarrassment arrives, he gets quiet and sullen like a chastised little boy and runs off to cocoon.
Listen to the clips from the thread in the first post. Talking about his presidency in a tired, dejected past tense.
No aggression. No real fight left.
4/
Trump entirely disregulates as the embarrassment train is bearing down. He seems out of control because he is. No control over himself. An overtired toddler x1,000.
Then the train passes the point of avoidance though and Trump shrinks into a sad ball (albeit briefly).
5/
1) Double Down Donnie
2) Loco Lawn Sprinkler
3) Sad and Silent
4) Hunting for Scapegoats
5) Riding the Excuse Train
1/
Trump will soon be joining Fox & Friends, only about 6 hours after his last Election Day-eve rally ended pic.twitter.com/EAhGEGO1m1
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 3, 2020
Whenever Trump is facing a public embarrassment he sees coming, he first doubles down on all of the stupid shit that put him in that hole to begin with. He has no other tools.
Then he frantically spins like a lawn sprinkler desperately spraying unhinged nonsense.
2/
The worse the pending embarrassment, the more unhinged the nutbaggery out of his mouth.
See: the past week.
It has been just a firehose of industrial-grade batshit.
3/
Then, when the embarrassment arrives, he gets quiet and sullen like a chastised little boy and runs off to cocoon.
Listen to the clips from the thread in the first post. Talking about his presidency in a tired, dejected past tense.
No aggression. No real fight left.
4/
Trump entirely disregulates as the embarrassment train is bearing down. He seems out of control because he is. No control over himself. An overtired toddler x1,000.
Then the train passes the point of avoidance though and Trump shrinks into a sad ball (albeit briefly).
5/
More from Politics
1/ Imagine that as soon as the referendum result the EU announced that it was looking forward to the end of free movement of UK citizens in the EU
2/ Imagine if the EU said finally all those retired Brits in the EU27 could go home
3/ Imagine if the EU said finally all those Brits in the EU could stop driving down wages, taking jobs and stop sending benefits back to the UK
4/ Imagine if the EU said it was looking to use UK citizens as “bargaining chips” to get a better trade deal
5/ Imagine if the EU told UK citizens in the EU27 that they could no longer rely on established legal rights and they would have to apply for a new status which they have to pay for for less rights
Imagine, for a moment, the reaction of the UK Government, Brexiters, and the RW UK press if Juncker, Tusk, Macron or Merkel went on TV to say that Brexit was worth it to stop Freedom of Movement for UK citizens, and to stop Brits being able to come to the EU and jump the queue.
— Steve Bullock (@GuitarMoog) November 20, 2018
2/ Imagine if the EU said finally all those retired Brits in the EU27 could go home
3/ Imagine if the EU said finally all those Brits in the EU could stop driving down wages, taking jobs and stop sending benefits back to the UK
4/ Imagine if the EU said it was looking to use UK citizens as “bargaining chips” to get a better trade deal
5/ Imagine if the EU told UK citizens in the EU27 that they could no longer rely on established legal rights and they would have to apply for a new status which they have to pay for for less rights
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A THREAD ON @SarangSood
Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.
Have covered:
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
2. Workbook
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen
1. Keeps following volatility super closely.
Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.
Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.
2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.
3. If you're an options seller then sell only when volatility is dropping, there is a high probability of you making the right trade and getting profit as a result
He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.
4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega
Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.
Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.
Have covered:
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
2. Workbook
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen
1. Keeps following volatility super closely.
Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.
Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.
I am quite different from your style. I follow the market's volatility very closely. I have mock positions in 7-8 different strategies which allows me to stay connected. Whichever gives best profit is usually the one i trade in.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) August 13, 2019
2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.
Anilji most of the time these days Theta only falls when market moves. So the Theta actually falls where market has moved to, not where our position was in the first place. By shifting we can come close to capturing the Theta fall but not always.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) June 24, 2019
3. If you're an options seller then sell only when volatility is dropping, there is a high probability of you making the right trade and getting profit as a result
He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.
This week has been great so far. The main aim is to be in the right side of the volatility, rest the market will reward.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) July 3, 2019
4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega
Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.
There is a difference between theta decay & fall in vega. Decay is certain but there is no guaranteed profit as delta moves can increase cost. Fall in vega on the other hand is backed by a powerful force that sells options and gives handsome returns. Our job is to identify them.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) February 12, 2020
