@SpecCoffeeHouse @NicholasTyrone I think you have missed the essential point that we have now passed peak Brexit. From now on only the disastrous reality will come at us from all sides. 57% already were Remainers on the day we joined. Soon a huge majority will hate Brexit. I expect poll tax riots response level

@NicholasTyrone Already the biggest vote winner, fish , has turned out to be a disaster. We’ve ended up with a FTA smaller than the UK itself. Gibraltar joined Schengen, Falklands shafted. UK regions never wanted It. #BrexitReality . #Brexitbenefits , there are none. #Brexitears from now on

@NicholasTyrone Remember too, this was a Tory internal civil war foisted on an uninterested country that they only won because of the #Austeridiocy policy falsely foisted after the financial crash. It was a protest vote. There are no benefits to Brexit. It’s a #ToryBrexitShambles .

@NicholasTyrone There will only be one direction of travel now, back towards the EU. We are currently effectively a vassal state and #Whatsovereignty ? We have only lost it. We have also become a sprat in a puddle not the leading big fish in the big bloc, the EU. This was always a fishy affair

@NicholasTyrone Oh yes. We’re also one of the biggest jokes on the planet, and will take centre stage as the worlds biggest Buffoon departs.... #Brexitisntworking #brexitleavesbritainnaked

As we continue to recap our work for the #VIADUCT_EU project over the years, take a look below at our thirteen VIADUCT Newsletters!

These are where we kept our network and you up to date of all our activities

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Our first newsletter kicked off the #VIADUCT_EU project with an editorial from our project leaders @FundaTekin17 of @IEP_Berlin and Wolfgang Wessels of @UniCologne

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In this early newsletter, @tomas_weiss wrote a fascinating piece on relations between the EU and Turkey after PESCO

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Check out Meltem Müftüler Baç's editorial here on the future of the EU-Turkey partnership in the early days of the #VIADUCT_EU project

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"Arranging EU-Turkey cooperation in the era of transactional leadership" was the title of the @FIIA_fi Senior Research Fellow @ToniAlaranta's editorial in this #VIADUCT_EU Newsletter

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I've been tweeting a lot about UK #OverseasTerritories not being part of the #Brexit deal and a bit more has emerged ...

#Falklands MLA @teslynbark has answered a q about #Brexit and the #Falklands on fb - highlights:

1 Original UK EU mandate didn't include OTs except for Gibraltar.

2 In May, EU said they didn't have a mandate to negotiate for their OTs and wouldn't negotiate on UK OT issues.

(2 possibly explains what @BorisJohnson said about EU "intransigence" in his Christmas message to the #Falklands, but wasn't mentioned when he replied to a pmq from @DerekTwiggMP earlier in the month)

3 @teslynbark says that @falklandsgov held that the new spirit of negotiations that evolved through the year gave space for #Falklands interests to be raised in #BrexitDeal talks and asking for detail on how they were raised by UK Government ...

4 @teslynbark says future negotiations with the EU aren't held to the same mandate as before so @falklandsgov to keep pushing to have #Falklands trade concerns raised

The first working day of the new UK-EU relationship. We're going to hear a lot this year from all sides (remain and Brexit in UK, EU, etc) using any possible scrap of evidence. But what we need to look for is trends, over time, so a few to think about in this thread... 1/

Obvious disruption or reduction to UK-EU trade flow. Here we may be thinking e.g. of a permanent 10% fall in traffic, or regular queues, or indeed no change. And apart from goods, the same with individual travel, for work, residence etc... 2/

As a reminder we're not expecting permanent scenes like those of the week before Christmas when borders were closed. But 5-10% reductions in UK-EU traffic would not seem to be out of line with economic forecasts of a hit to the UK economy. 3/

Then we'll need to look at whether UK-EU trade is being substituted by UK-non EU trade. This probably should happen to a degree, and in theory efficiencies could come this way. But its also possible that all UK trade falls, with the UK no longer an EU entry point. 4/

Inward investment is another key post-Brexit indicator. There isn't a single obvious data set here, but the impression of the last four years has been a fall off in manufacturing, but not in services, particularly tech. Continuation would suggest economy tilting to services. 5/

Here we go. The final Brexit debate begins. The final splash of petrol on the dumpster fire before the match is lit at 11pm tomorrow night.

Boris Johnson deliberately mocks the SNP by calling them the Scottish Nationalist Party, despite being admonished by the Speaker. There speaks a man who doesn't give an itty bitty toss.

Boris Johnson: "Just as we've avoided trade barriers"

What? Ah, it's because he carefully defined them as "tariffs and quotas" just before lying about them.

There will be massive, massive non-tariff barries.

He's dodging the question about fishing and Northern Ireland, wriggling like one of those eels the EU won't be buying any more.

Boris Johnson is bigging up the speed with which the UK managed to reach a trade deal.

But a trade deal that favours the interests of your counterpart while securing almost none of your own *should* be a quick process. Biting your hand off takes no time at all!

On March 17, the Netherlands will have general elections.

Two parties - PVV & FVD - want a Nexit, a departure from the EU, in line with Brexit.

As the reality of the EU-UK trade agreement kicks in, let's take a look at what these parties

Firstly, good to note, here is their recent polling,

PVV: 14% - 23 seats (currently 20 seats)
FVD: 2.5% - 4 seats (currently 2 seats)

A government needs 76 seats to govern.

Give or take, these parties appeal to about 20% of the electorate.

/2

FVD wants a so-called "intelligent Nexit" because - arguably - they think the UK's departure was not-so-intelligent.

"Intelligent" Nexit. Lots of nodding

But FVD doesn't want to leave the EU, they want an end to the EU.

/3

They want a "different cooperation model among sovereign states" based around free trade, conveniently assuming that the EU will automatically cease to exist once the Dutch vote 'Leave'.

And EFTA should be the basis for the new model.

/4

It's full-on 'magical thinking'.

If you want to join EFTA, sure, make the case.

But be truthful about what it means.

The FVD decides to disregard the EEA agreement, which governs trade between the EFTA-4 and the EU27, and the EU rules and regs that EFTA countries follow.

/5

As is traditional for this time of year, and more in hope than expectation, my top ten trade / Brexit hopes for 2021...

1 - The UK Government ditches the unnecessary secrecy and engages much more openly with business, NGOs etc about their priorities, and reflects them

2 - Parliament steps up its game on government scrutiny beyond select committee reports and starts expecting answers on why priorities have been chosen, why trade agreements with which countries, what the content should be etc

3 - UK business do their best to keep on exporting and importing, innovating and partnering, to overcome the new barriers in their way, and also to keep shouting for government to remove barriers as they arise

4 - Brexiteers show even the vaguest hint of interest in the views of those who continue to want strong ties with the EU, rather then repeating over and over again, to even the vaguest hint of criticism, "you lost suckers, get over it"

5 - Remainers, rejoiners and the like stop talking quite so much about how the 2016 referendum was stolen from them, which is becoming both history and suggests that 17 odd million people were conned

(NB not confident on the last two)

At today's Future Relationship with the European Union Committee - we're hearing from @CSBarnard24 that the deal has a slightly "alice in wonderland quality" about it - nothing really appears quite as it first looks. If you compare to what we had until 1 Jan, it falls short. 1/

For example, there's a statement that the dispute resolution mechanisms doesn’t apply, but if you plough on until the end you see that some chunks of the DSM are actually incorporated over non-regression provisions. @CSBarnard24 2/

From @SamuelMarcLowe: "the premise of this agreement [is] to remove tariffs & do v little to remove barriers to trade and services. If you’re prioritising the economic status quo and economic integration with Europe then of course this deal is going to disappoint you." 3/

"This deal is actually very unstable", says @CSBarnard24. "One of the problems is that this constant contestation of the deal creates quite a lot of difficulties for businesses." 4/

"If you’re a car manufacturer that wants to invest in a new plant, you don’t know whether tariffs are going to be imposed either because the deal is brought to an end or due to potential govt retaliation - this is the main concern of this deal." @CSBarnard24 5/

How to make sense of the increasing number of UK-EU trade disruption stories?

In short - outside of a single market product checks and people working restrictions are inevitable. And outside a customs union you will have tariffs and / or rules of origin.

Detail ---> 1/

The UK decided to leave a Customs Union. Within that Customs Union, no tariffs, just a common external tariff or preferential rates for bilateral deals or developing countries. Hence, distribution hubs in one country for all make a lot of sense. 2/

Outside a Customs Union our choice was tariffs under WTO rules or remove them subject to rules of origin with a deal. We chose the latter, but it means we can't just import from China, rebadge, and get zero tariffs from the EU. As we could until December 31. 3/

Net result of being outside of the Customs Union - it no longer makes sense for the UK to be a distribution hub for the whole of Europe. Particularly when so many neighbouring countries remain in it. No trade deal changes that. 4/

Now, product checks, of the sort causing problems for food exporters (see Scottish seafood). In the single market, we shared regulations, so a safe product in the UK was safe in France. No inspections. We chose to leave that system, as we want to change some regulations. 5/

[thread] I would be able to move on from brexit if......

We had been told the UK holds some cards and not all of them

That it would be a difficult deal and not the easiest deal in history

That we would have liabilities to pay and these would be a substantial amount and that they are not zero and they do not buy us a trade deal

That we do not have "many solutions" to the NI border and that at the last having exhausted drones, blimps, random country examples that don't solve it and oh yes unspecified technology instead a border in the Irish Sea that no unionist can support is the answer

Brexit- Moving On:
Those who saw membership of the EU as being in UK’s best interests are told that they are going through the stages of grief. Eventually Brexit acceptance will come and we are told to hurry up about it (by "Spartans" who trumpet never surrendering) /1

But there is no need for grief. Brexit is not a permanent condition. States can apply for membership. Brexiters have a task: either delivering on their promises or persuading people to forget them. We have a task: creating the conditions for a successful application to join. /2

I want to be practical about this. What needs to be done?

1. We must advocate for membership within the UK.
2. We must help ensure that the UK meets the conditions for membership.
3. We must maintain good relations with the EU. /3

Advocacy: Good advocacy is founded on careful preparation and good information. We will need to be clear about the adverse impacts of Brexit as they occur. We will need to be clear about the developing benefits of membership (and honest about the EU’s difficulties) /4

We need to be where people will hear us: on social media, by providing expertise available for the traditional media and by lobbying politicians. We need to help amplify those speaking for us. Which bring us to a question; do we have the advocates we need? /5

I’m feeling really sad today thinking about what we’ve lost over the last 5 years. But this is mixed with proud knowledge I, and many around me, did all we could to avert this disaster unfolding. This is a short thread to give a shout out to some of them 1/

First up is @GreenPartyMolly - I’ve already rung her today to say this and more. But she was both astute and persuasive in her tireless work before and after the referendum. I remain proud to have worked for her and supported her.

Second up is @ewgjones - one of the few who threw himself into election mode before the referendum and saw the pragmatic need for a persuasive targeted GreenerIn campaign. Without him @SW_GreenerIN probably wouldn’t have happened (or certainly looked very different)

Third up is my former colleague @aw_bell who pivoted quicker than anyone I knew through the grief of 2016 to try & make the best of the awful situation post referendum. He metaphorically shook me awake when I kinda wanted to hide under a duvet (and I think he did this for many)

Fourth up is Joe Williams - friend who helped set up @Bristol4Europe (who really led the national response post referendum). He was a calculated head in a room who dared to think big when others were panicking.

A year ago we left the EU, but the real impact of leaving will only be felt from tomorrow.

1/13

Although the ‘deal’ includes tariff free access to the single market and customs union – it still destroys friction free access to the EU markets, which will destroy many UK businesses and cost many UK jobs.

2/13

It of course fails to address the UK’s services industry – which represents 80% of trade with the EU.

3/13

But there are also other factors – lorry drivers will need to be paid more to wait in queues. Or they won’t come.

4/13

So there will be supply failures for product from the EU – impacting everything from supermarket shelves to car and aerospace manufacturing industries.

5/13

Our experts have read through the 1,246 pages of the Brexit deal so you don't have to. Here are 13 things consumers need to know about the UK-EU deal ⬇️

1. You won't need a visa.

If you're travelling for up to 90 days in any 180 day period, you don't need to worry about getting a visa. This applies to any country in the EU, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland

2. To travel to the EU you will need at least six months of validity left on your passport.

And as far as your furry friends are concerned, the UK will no longer be part of the Pet Passport scheme. You'll need an Animal Health Certificate instead.

3. You should get yourself a Ghic (as well as travel insurance).

Similar to the Ehic, the Ghic is a UK government scheme. It will be available from 2021, but details are still being finalised. You can still use your Ehic card until it expires.

4. You'll still be entitled to compensation for flight delays. This rule only applies to flights on EU airlines or flights to or from EU airports. It’s possible that only passengers flying from the UK on EU airlines or from the EU to the UK will be covered.

Good to hear that the ERG star chamber has approved the Brexit trade deal (or Deal--- as I think it should be called). It "preserves the UK's sovereignty as a matter of law" they say. I wonder what they'd have said if they'd actually read it.

Boris Johnson: "we have pressed ahead with this task, resisting all calls for delay, precisely because creating certainty about our future provides the best chance of beating Covid"

Eh?

I'm pretty sure Brexit preceded pandemic but there we are. I would advise, having read extracts from the speech Johnson is to deliver, that people put away sharp objects, bricks etc if they're going to watch the debate. And there is never an excuse for kicking the cat.

Starmer is now savaging (politely) the PM, pointing out lies and inconsistencies. Given he's already whipped Labour MPs to support the bill, I think he's wasting his breath - the result is already settled, the headlines already written.

I have to say that Johnson is performing well: a fake success allied to complete lack of scrutiny has empowered him. He's flinging lies like a monkey flings its own dung.