BC BREXIT
Saved by @CodyyyGardner

[thread] I would be able to move on from brexit if......

 We had been told the UK holds some cards and not all of them
That it would be a difficult deal and not the easiest deal in history
That we would have liabilities to pay and these would be a substantial amount and that they are not zero and they do not buy us a trade deal
That we do not have "many solutions" to the NI border and that at the last having exhausted drones, blimps, random country examples that don't solve it and oh yes unspecified technology instead a border in the Irish Sea that no unionist can support is the answer
That far from cutting red tape this will introduce more red tape
That services will not gain access to the EU single market and they will be overlooked
That fish will be used to barter away for a deal
That we need them more than they need us
That when you say you have a plan that you can actually present evidence of its existence
That you don't cheat
That you don't lie
That you don't peddle simplist fantasy
That you don't use EU citizens as bargaining chips
That you don't say that from September 2016 we will negotiate new free trade deals with countries to be ready to sign in <2 years
That you don't lie about a dividend about a number that in itself is a lie
That you admit there will be economic damage but that you will try to take steps to minimise it
That rather than say there is no risk to sterling you admit the pound needs a correction anyway (to explain away Sterling moves after 23/6)
That you don't peddle racism, xenophobia and islamophobia fostering an atmosphere of hatred and fear that culminated in the murder of an MP
That you respect electoral law rather than sending emails scheming how to circumvent it
That you don't call the EU the 4th reich or EUSSR or any other fucked up conspiracy bullshit e.g. Kalergi conspiracy
That you don't threaten to starve the Irish, invade Spain, invade France
That you don't use EU citizens as bargaining chips
That you are able to rebut experts rather than insult and demonise experts with ad hominem insults
That you didn't invent the ridiculous brexit means brexit slogan to roll on a con
That you didn't invent the dangerous no deal is better than a bad deal without quantifying what a bad deal is or a no deal is
That you don't lie to the Queen to unlawfully prorogue Parliament
That you don't vote to break the law
That you don't call the french turds, employ nazi jibes or any other numbers of insulting words used to feed an atmosphere of hatred towards neighbours
Quite simply

I want you to be able to hold your held up high as you win

As Margaret Thatcher puts it

"The manner of winning is a matter of honour."
And at the last

You have nothing except empty hollow platitudes of "sea of opportunity", "seize the opportunity" , "move on" , "our friends and neighbours"

That really is lowering the barrel even further
https://t.co/RtUN38M8rb
@threadreaderapp unroll

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[thread] A small round up disassembling this desperate bullshit from Michael Gove

It's well written btw - deliberately so


"Scottish independence would break up our family… and families are strongest when they stick together"

A reminder: Over 100,000 dead due to the incompetence of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and an entire government of sycophantic cronies

"THIS terrible pandemic has brought home to us all the importance of family. "

This is like when Stanley Johnson said that the UK only took coronavirus seriously when Boris Johnson got infected.

No - it didn't take a pandemic to remind me of the importance of family.
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[thread] on a suggestion of a speech at the last

and how to vote for this deal on 30th December 2020

Mr Speaker

May I congratulate Boris Johnson

Truly

He is our Lion King as Robert Halfon calls him

Our herd leader with his massive success of coronavirus where as Priti Patel says we have always been ahead of the curve.

A Prime Minister whose achievements will go down in the annals of British history in infamy.

The focus of my speech shall be three pillars.

How did you win?

What did you win?

Where do we go from here?

But first I want to change tack and go to what I know is a favourite topic of the Prime Minister's: American Presidents.

I Know the Prime Minister has a deep ancestral hatred - sorry respect - for American Presidents.

As an Islington inhabitant once upon a time I know that his respect for America birthed out of a deep love for that nation and out of a deep desire to avoid his tax obligations to the Internal Revenue Service.
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[thread] on the tub thumping jingoism of "best in the world"

Whether it be Gavin Williamson

or Jeremy Hunt

Why they need this amidst the shitshow of brexit and the disaster of covid?

Is a fascinating question


A reminder
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As @michaelgove admitted yesterday we are expecting significant disruption in our #trade flows with the EU in coming days. The fact he is willing to say this confirms what most of us feel, that problems are building. This thread is a summary of what I have learnt in the past week

DISCLAIMER I run a trade body and spent the week in my back bedroom on the phone to members, reading the media and on zoom calls. I’m not on the ground and I am not in the operation rooms. So my info is second hand and partial. No one has a complete view. IT IS HIDEOUSLY COMPLEX

The first obvious problem is the number of different actors involved. On the commercial side - within 1 exporter there are multiple depts. There is also the buying company and the logistics company. They all have to sync. 1 load of goods involves multiple commercial actors.

On the government side its even more complex. In UK there are dozens of departments and agencies involved, and the same if not more in every member state of the EU. there are hundreds of thousands of decision makers involved.

They all have the same rule book though - YES true but its 1200 pages long and it's 15 days old - also - here's the thing with red tape, it's open to interpretation. (It's why lawyers tend to drive nice cars) and so being BORDER READY means different things to different actors.
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Many bearish sentiments across the mortgage sector because they believe companies won't succeed as much when rate finally go back up (3 maybe 4 years from now). Which makes sense except for $GHIV and here's why. In 2016 Brexit came & rates went down which lead to huge success...

in mortgages. Business was great for many companies but then in ‘17 and ‘18, rates went up. What happened you might ask? A lot of people got compressed, margins got compressed, rates went down, & people struggled in the mortgage market...

Well UWM ( $GHIV ) compound annual growth rate, from ‘16 to ’18, was 28%. Companies that focused on refi struggled, so obviously a very successful company like Rocket or Quicken, they went down 14% in compound annual growth rate in those years...

$GHIV actually grew, and so did their profits, so the opportunity to continue to grow in all cycles is a big differentiator for UWM, and the broker channel versus a lot of our competitors. When rates rise, it's actually even better for $GHIV (UWM)..

If rates stay low, great UWM will continue to crush but when the rates rise, they will continue to steal even more market share because of how they operate in the mortgage sector. People also talk about the speed in closing a loan & that other competitors are faster...
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Some compelling evidence at the NI Affairs Committee this morning on Brexit, the risks of smuggling, organised crime, the "soft underbelly" of the Irish border, the loss of the European Arrest Warrant and what might replace it

2/ Giving evidence were Simon Byrne, chief constable of the PSNI, Mark McEwan, assistant chief constable, Steve Rodhouse, of the UK National Crime Agency, and Steve Tracey, of HMRC. Here's the gist of what I've just filed for @rtenews online:

3/ A UK law officer has raised the prospect of intl organised criminals trafficking drugs, people + firearms into the UK via Ireland because of tighter controls at GB ports thanks to Brexit. He also suggested that Ireland may have to tighten security at its ports accordingly.

4/ Steve Rodhouse, DG of Operations with the UK National Crime Agency, said organised criminals would be making a “fundamental choice” as to whether they continue to traffic drugs, people and firearms into the UK via English ports...

5/ ...or whether they might decide to switch routes into the UK through Northern Ireland via the Irish Republic.
Mr Rodhouse told a House of Commons committee that such trafficking was already underway through what could be termed the “soft underbelly” of the Irish border.
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Richard Bentall #FBPE #3.5% Project We Told You So
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1/19

I am pretty annoyed about Starmer's statement about FoM on the Marr Show today, but I'm still not sure what the thinking behind it is. If it's just that this is not the time to talk about EU allignment, fair enough, but it could have been expressed in a more nuanced way.

2/19

Because, rest assured, there will have to be a reallignment with the EU. This will be necessitated not only by the economics but also, most likely, by unfolding events in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

3/19

I am not convinced that complete endorsement of the Tory's Brexit is required to win back the red wall seats; its not what a careful analysis of polling says and it's, frankly, treating red wall voters as idiots while pandering to their supposed idiocy (pretty patronising).

4/19

Given the well-documented harms caused to border trade, UK-based European hub distribution centres, manufacturing (e.g. BASF) and fishing that have emerged just in the first week, it's pretty obvious that THIS Brexit can't be a success.

5/19

Indeed, given that these problems have emerged in a period when cross-border trade has been at a minimum we can bet that things are going to get much worse, as the odious Gove has admitted.
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At today's Future Relationship with the European Union Committee - we're hearing from @CSBarnard24 that the deal has a slightly "alice in wonderland quality" about it - nothing really appears quite as it first looks. If you compare to what we had until 1 Jan, it falls short. 1/

For example, there's a statement that the dispute resolution mechanisms doesn’t apply, but if you plough on until the end you see that some chunks of the DSM are actually incorporated over non-regression provisions. @CSBarnard24 2/

From @SamuelMarcLowe: "the premise of this agreement [is] to remove tariffs & do v little to remove barriers to trade and services. If you’re prioritising the economic status quo and economic integration with Europe then of course this deal is going to disappoint you." 3/

"This deal is actually very unstable", says @CSBarnard24. "One of the problems is that this constant contestation of the deal creates quite a lot of difficulties for businesses." 4/

"If you’re a car manufacturer that wants to invest in a new plant, you don’t know whether tariffs are going to be imposed either because the deal is brought to an end or due to potential govt retaliation - this is the main concern of this deal." @CSBarnard24 5/
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