BC BREXIT
Saved by @CodyyyGardner

Here we go. The final Brexit debate begins. The final splash of petrol on the dumpster fire before the match is lit at 11pm tomorrow night.

 Boris Johnson deliberately mocks the SNP by calling them the Scottish Nationalist Party, despite being admonished by the Speaker. There speaks a man who doesn't give an itty bitty toss.
Boris Johnson: "Just as we've avoided trade barriers"

What? Ah, it's because he carefully defined them as "tariffs and quotas" just before lying about them.

There will be massive, massive non-tariff barries.
He's dodging the question about fishing and Northern Ireland, wriggling like one of those eels the EU won't be buying any more.
Boris Johnson is bigging up the speed with which the UK managed to reach a trade deal.

But a trade deal that favours the interests of your counterpart while securing almost none of your own *should* be a quick process. Biting your hand off takes no time at all!
Boris Johnson: "The people of Scotland took a once in a generation sovereign decision to remain in the UK."

He's figured out the best way to eat up time is to keep needling the SNP.
This whole thing is vomit-inducing, like listening to a toddler telling his parents how he can run away forever.
Boris Johnson dismissed a completely valid question from Labour about services by mocking the MP, asking whether he will be joining Starmer in supporting the deal.

The Tories will hang Starmer's abject capitulation around Labour's collective necks forever.
Just like the last 4.5 years of the Brexit horror show, about half of Boris Johnson's comments have been about fishing.
Boris Johnson: "levelling up across the UK" - one "up" too many.
Now Boris Johnson is mocking the SNP again.
BJ: "In 5 and a half years time, we will be able to fish every single fish in our waters, if we so wish"

That sounds vastly too simplistic.
Summary of Boris Johnson's speech: lie, lie, exaggeration, SNP smell, lie, lie, deflection, SNP really stink, lie.
Another Labour question torpedoed by going back to the fact they're voting for the deal.
Boris Johnson: "Leave old, tired, super-masticated arguments behind"
Boris Johnson: "Now with this bill, we are going to become a friendly neighbour"

Thank the heavens, he's finished.
Starmer next.

"Do we implement the treaty with the EU, or do we not? If we don't, the outcome is clear: we leave the transition period without protection"

He is doubling down on BJ's message that a vote against the deal is a vote for no-deal.
KS "I want the UK to be an outward-looking, optimistic country".

So let's implement an insular, pessimistic deal.
KS is reminded of Labour's 6 tests.

He stammers in avoiding the question completely, stating that voting against is a vote for no-deal.
KS: "Those voting 'no' today want 'yes'. They are counting on others to rescue them."
This is an appalling performance by him. The clinical KS of most PMQs is hiding in a broom cupboard somewhere.
This is now the fifth time that KS has deflected people intervening on him by saying a vote against the deal is a vote for no-deal.

"We fought together for months and years against no-deal. And now others in this chamber will vote for no-deal"
Boris Johnson is challenged by KS to take back his comment about there being "no non-tariff barriers".

BJ stands up and says "there will be no tariffs and quotas". Then he mocks KS and sits back down, chortling.
KS is trying again on the "no non-tariff barriers". None of this is cutting through. He just looks too haunted, too rattled.

Boris Johnson by contrast looks like someone already sitting by the pool sipping pina coladas.
KS talks about the security of the UK, pointing out the UK loses access to multiple real-time EU databases, including one accessed 600,000,000 times by UK police in 2019.
KS: "The PM is pretending he has sovereignty AND zero tariffs and quotas. He doesn't. As soon as he exercises that sovereignty, the tariffs go on."
This was always going to be a hideous debate. But it's underwhelming even my zero expectations.
KS: "We now have an opportunity to forge a new future. One outside the EU. But working closely with our great partners, friends and allies. We will always be European."
Theresa May stands up to speak, and Sky News cuts away. BBC News already gave up. Coverage continues on BBC Parliament and online.

(Yes, it's a busy news day. But this is THE last Brexit debate ever.)
Ian Blackford now.

This will be 🔥
Good on him to bring up EU citizens here first. "Scotland is your home. You're welcome."
IB: "Scotland was European before it was British." Reminds the HOC of hundreds of years of interaction and integration with Europe.
IB: "Brexit means broken promises. It means an isolated Britain in the middle of a global pandemic."
IB: "The decision for Scotland is simple: which union do we wish to be a part of in the future."

"Now that the deal is in front of us, Brexit fictions are replaced by Brexit facts."
It's genuinely sad that only the SNP are standing up to say all the things that have to be said about the Brexit deal. KS tried in a half-hearted waffly way, but he was so skittish it took any edge off his words.
IB: "This deal means more delays, paperwork and checks"

Yes. £7.5 billion a year worth, according to HMRC's estimate.
IB: "We know this deal means a drop in access to fish stocks [for Scotland]"

Yep. All fishermen have been shafted, but Scottish fishermen most of all.
IB: "Labour's Brexit tests have disappeared as quickly as Tory promises."
Can't watch the Brexit debate any more. Just too soul-sapping. Good luck to anyone still enduring it.

More from Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡

Edwin Hayward
Edwin Hayward
@uk_domain_names
Handy guide for Dominic Raab and other Brexiteers, and for anyone keen to replace our EU trade with trade with the rest of the world on WTO terms...


You can't magic away the vast distances involved. Clue: we fly in only 1/192th of our trade compared to the amount that arrives via sea


But even if you invented a teleporter tomorrow, WTO terms are so bad, so stacked against us, that a no-deal Brexit will be a total economic disaster


And while the Brexiteers fantasise, real jobs are being lost, investments are drying up, companies are moving assets to the EU27 or redomiciling. All already happened and happening right now, not in some mythical


Of course, there are many, many myths that Brexiteers perpetuate that are total fiction. You've seen a couple of them already. The thread below busts a whole lot
POLITICS
Edwin Hayward \U0001f984 \U0001f5e1
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡...
@uk_domain_names
A few thoughts in advance of seeing the Brexit deal, assuming it's not scuppered at the last.

1. It will save industries, in the short term. For all the problems it *won't* solve, there is at least that. Tariffs would have finished off some sectors like switching off a light.

2. Expect a lot of confusion (through ignorance, and deliberate obfuscation by certain segments of the media) between free trade and frictionless trade. Trade that is free can still come with plenty of friction. Those extra £billions in customs paperwork won't go away.

3. There may be a standstill or implementation period. If there is, that will be helpful because it will let us get further down the road of vaccinating against the coronavirus, and resolving one crisis before plunging into the rest.

4. Any standstill will trigger a huge wave of "you told us scary things would happen, but they didn't." If you're counting along, it will be the 3rd such wave. First was during the negotiations while we were still EU members. Second during transition when EU rules still applied.

5. Those are just words. But the damage to the economy is real. So a standstill remains preferable, though teeth may have to remain gritted a while longer as a result.

6. Expect a few positive surprises. (Not compared to EU membership, but to what would otherwise have been.)
BREXIT
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Edwin Hayward \U0001f984 \U0001f5e1
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡...
@uk_domain_names
THREAD: Here are the essential points from the EU's time-limited, limited effect no-deal Brexit mitigation offer.

(Most concessions are unilateral measures it will implement. Some require UK cooperation - not clear what happens if we refuse to do

Air travel
"Unless there is a contingency measure in place on air transport at the end of the transition period, air traffic between the EU and the United Kingdom will be interrupted."

The EU is proposing 6 months of reciprocal concessions to keep (most) planes flying.


However, they're not offering any concessions on airline ownership requirements, so BA for one may come unstuck here (depending on how its restructured shareholding is going). Its message: you already had plenty of time to prepare, including a grace period.


Road transport

A) Haulage
With no agreement, hauliers would have to use ECMT permits to provide any freight transport between the UK and the EU. But there aren't nearly enough of those to go around. So they're giving a basic grace period of 6 months, as long as we reciprocate.


B) Bus services
"Furthermore, in the absence of an agreement on a future partnership between the EU and the United Kingdom by 1 January 2021, regular bus services to and from the United
Kingdom would have to be interrupted"

Here too, offer is 6 months of continued connectivity.
BREXIT
Edwin Hayward
Edwin Hayward
@uk_domain_names
Ok, it's high time to look at the REAL effects of Brexit. As the Tories implode & Labour sits on its hands, companies are executing contingency plans, shifting jobs & assets, slashing investments, or redomiciling (accounting exercise). Happening NOW, not in a fantasy future. 1/95

Barden Corporation is closing down its Plymouth factory after 51 years, putting 400 jobs at risk, as its parent company Schaeffler shifts production to various sites outside the UK due to Brexit.

8 health providers have warned of medicine shortages in the event of a no-deal Brexit: "we do not believe that the current medicine supply plans will suffice, and we will have widespread shortages if we do not respond urgently."

Pfizer - $100 million on Brexit prep: "Pfizer’s preparations are well advanced to make the changes necessary to meet EU legal requirements after the U.K. is no longer a member state, especially in the regulatory, manufacturing and supply chain areas."

The Government has spent £4.2 billion pounds on Brexit preparations (£2.2 billion in previous Budgets, plus an additional £2 billion in the most recent Budget.)
POLITICS
Edwin Hayward \U0001f984 \U0001f5e1
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡...
@uk_domain_names
UK Government just released 70 pages of case studies today, showing how the borders will operate after 1 January 2021.

They're essentially hardcore porn for red tape fetishists.

Doomed, we are. Doomed.

(e.g. exporting fish; exporting mechanical goods)
https://t.co/zWpkdGJeim


This is exactly what should have been presented years ago so that firms could prepare.

Or, arguably, before the Brexit referendum. Just the 70 pages of case studies released TODAY could have tipped the result the other way. Not everyone is blinded by sovrinty & hating forrins.

Going back to the examples...

The person in France buying (say) UK mechanical goods will take one look at the procedures involved, and Google an alternative supplier inside the EU instead.

As for the fish, they could probably swim to their intended destination faster of their own accord than following the new process, if only they had water in between to traverse.

The purchasers will smell them coming a mile away.

Auto parts. I am practically weeping at my keyboard.
GOVERNMENT

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Doom-Loop
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Bloody hell some ones built a hall of shame for the SNP.

https://t.co/qxyMnUS4iX


1. Derek Mackay sending text messages to a sixteen-year-old boy telling him he was really cute.

2. Mhairi Black bringing a drag queen called Flowjob to a primary school

3. Derek Mackay spending £230 million on ferries that were not built

4. John Swinney overseeing an exam fiasco leading to marks being inflated

5. John Swinney being responsible for teaching primary school children about anal sex, rimming and pornography.

6. Natalie McGarry resigned the SNP whip because of fraud offences relating to the Women for Independence group. She pleaded guilty was convicted and jailed, but later had the conviction quashed. She still faces trial for embezzlement.

7. SNP coverup over the Covid outbreak connected with Nike in Edinburgh

8. SNP Government involved in clinical waste storage scandal

9. SNP MPs Chris Law, Ian Blackford and Brendan O’Hara had expenses claims totally £760,000 from the UK Parliament. They were the three with the
BREXIT
Alessio Patalano
Alessio Patalano
@alessionaval
Two excellent questions at the end of a very sensible thread summarising the post-Brexit UK FP debate. My own take at attempting to offer an answer - ahead of the IR is as follow:


1. The two versions have a converging point: a tilt to the Indo-pacific doesn’t preclude a role as a convening power on global issues;
2. On the contrary, it underwrites the credibility for leadership on global issues, by seeking to strike two points:

A. Engaging with a part of the world in which world order and global issues are central to security, prosperity, and - not least - values;
B. Propelling the UK towards a more diversified set of economic, political, and security ties;

3. The tilt towards the Indo-Pacific whilst structurally based on a realist perception of the world, it is also deeply multilateral. Central to it is the notion of a Britain that is a convening power.
4. It is as a result a notion that stands on the ability to renew diplomacy;

5. It puts in relation to this a premium on under-utilised formats such as FPDA, 5Eyes, and indeed the Commonwealth - especially South Pacific islands;
6. It equally puts a premium on exploring new bilateral and multilateral formats. On former, Japan, Australia. On latter, Quad;
BREXIT
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David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Brexit. UK-EU talks. Let's try to explain why we're in such a state, of increased risk of no deal, moving away from the fish and playing fields which are the detail but not the answer, to differing philosophies and divorce parallels that might just help... 1/

First, with apologies to those concerned, we need to go beyond those saying this is the inevitable path to deal / no-deal. Half of them will be right and I'll definitely be wrong (don't worry, I'm hedged in wine bets), but it wasn't inevitable, typical, or necessary. 2/

I'll also ignore the content of any deal, which has been clear for months, the UK compromises on level playing field, the EU on fish. Something so obvious really isn't the fundamental issue. Could, as some not noted for their perspicacity have said, be done in an afternoon. 3/

Some truth in the idea that flounces and playing the tough cop are a part of trade negotiations. But equally as we're in about the 5th pass of these, I think it has ceased to be helpful. Either side could already have cut the deal having shown their toughness. 4/

Some fundamentals then, that we've forgotten. First, the trade deal that will lead to much less free trade than before. The incentive structures, the ability to create a win-win, are inevitably going to be different to a normal deal. 5/
BREXIT
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Another head-banging day for the £112bn UK creative sector that is starting to ingest how difficult #Brexit is going to make their lives - and how little the government is really willing to do to fix the lack of a 'mobility' chapter in the EU-UK trade deal. Quick update.../1

First Equity @EquityUK put out a letter to @BorisJohnson warning that #brexit was a "towering hurdle" (you'd want Brian Blessed reading that part) to UK actors plying their trade in EU - a double whammy with #COVID19 /2

https://t.co/mXjTAISqZk


@BorisJohnson One third of Equity members say they've seen job ads asking for EU passport holders: "Before, we were able to travel to Europe visa-free. Now we have to pay hundreds of pounds, fill in form after form, and spend weeks waiting for approval" /3

@BorisJohnson Worth recalling that all this goes back to the UK desire NOT to have a 'mobility' provision within the TCA - all part of 'ending Free Movement' and the professional services folk - including musicians, actors, fashion models etc -are all victim of

@BorisJohnson What's the government going to do about all this? Good question, which brings us to todays @CommonsDCMS hearing in which the Culture Minister Caroline Dinenage @cj_dinenage frankly pin-balled around the issues /5
BREXIT
Nick Marro
Nick Marro
@nickm4rro
1/ Lots of good analysis out there on why the EU-China CAI is a bad decision in the context of Xinjiang, transatlantic partnerships, etc. But I also think that even the trade/econ benefits of the CAI look quite limited. Thread:

2/ It highlights, as a win, that China’s preservation of existing liberalizations. That’s positive, but not really a big problem; the bigger issue is stagnation, where reform pledges have failed to materialize after years/decades of promises. Great example is in the FDI openings,


3/ which are highlighted to include cloud, auto, fin services etc—all areas of EU/MNC interest. Thing is, these openings aren’t new. China has begun opening auto/finance since 2018/19, while the 50% cap on cloud services has remained unchanged since 2015 (or before if we consider


4/ WTO ascension commitments vs the 2015 Telecom Catalogue, but that’s for another day). So these are existing openings that are repackaged as “wins.” More critical issue beyond FDI caps is around licensing issuance, which still big problem. Arguably some more significance in

5/ R&D and health? Not an expert, but the FDI conditions (eg hospitals only in certain cities) are limiting, while R&D could be complicated by data/info controls. It’s also unclear how existing tech transfer prohibitions exceed existing protections in the foreign investment law,
BREXIT

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Guruvayur Sri Krishna & Coconut with Horns.
#Krishnaleela
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🕉
We’ve all grown up listening to stories of Shri Krishna. This one is a famous story of Shri Krishna in Guruvayur Temple, also called Dakshina Dwaraka.


There lived a villager who planted coconut saplings and had promised that he would offer the 'first coconut' from each of his coconut trees to "Guruvayurappan". When the trees started to yield coconuts, he collected the first coconut from all the trees in a sack 👇


and set forth to Guruvayur.

On the way he was stopped by a robber who asked all the items in the sack. The villager told the robber that the coconuts in the sack belonged to Guruvayurappan and so he was unable to hand it over.
@SriramKannan77 @Jayalko1


The robber with anger asked the villager "Is Guruvaurappan's coconut any different? Does it have horns ?".
Saying so the robber pulled the sack forcefully out of the villager's hand, and coconuts came out..👇


To their astonishment each and every coconut in the sack had horns! Even today, the coconut with horns are displayed in the temple for devotees to see.

Below Picture is not original, as we cannot take photos inside temple.
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