On March 17, the Netherlands will have general elections.

Two parties - PVV & FVD - want a Nexit, a departure from the EU, in line with Brexit.

As the reality of the EU-UK trade agreement kicks in, let's take a look at what these parties

Firstly, good to note, here is their recent polling,

PVV: 14% - 23 seats (currently 20 seats)
FVD: 2.5% - 4 seats (currently 2 seats)

A government needs 76 seats to govern.

Give or take, these parties appeal to about 20% of the electorate.

/2
FVD wants a so-called "intelligent Nexit" because - arguably - they think the UK's departure was not-so-intelligent.

"Intelligent" Nexit. Lots of nodding

But FVD doesn't want to leave the EU, they want an end to the EU.

/3
They want a "different cooperation model among sovereign states" based around free trade, conveniently assuming that the EU will automatically cease to exist once the Dutch vote 'Leave'.

And EFTA should be the basis for the new model.

/4
It's full-on 'magical thinking'.

If you want to join EFTA, sure, make the case.

But be truthful about what it means.

The FVD decides to disregard the EEA agreement, which governs trade between the EFTA-4 and the EU27, and the EU rules and regs that EFTA countries follow.

/5
It's like FVD thinks it can strike bilateral deals with European countries once it has left the EU, because the EU will then have magically disappeared. (David Davis klaxon!)

It also thinks NL won't be in the EU-26's regulatory orbit, ...because EFTA countries aren't???🤦‍♂️

/6
I don't have time to go through all inconsistencies in their reasoning (yet).

Safe to say, this is not an "intelligent Nexit" but a "unicorn Nexit".

Here's the text: https://t.co/dGDNw3aajw

Unfortunately, people might actually fall for this.

Anyway, on to the PVV.

/7
PVV published its party programme yesterday.

They want to leave the EU because:

- EU fisheries policy
- unelected Eurocrats/ politically corrupt
- no control of our borders
- "we want control over our own money, migration policy & laws"

I see a theme!🧐

/8
Now I remember where I heard those points before!

And there you have it, in the party programme the PVV writes: "What the Brits can do, we can do too!"

/9
Ofcourse, here too, no ideas about the type of deal that the Netherlands could strike with the EU after departure, or what this means for rules & regulations, NTBs, tariffs, or economic effects.

It's all about the sovereignty, baby.

/10
I guess the PVV is right, "what the Brits did, we can do too." I'm just not sure the rest of the country thinks we should.

Looking back at the past four years in British politics, I don't think many in NL will say "yes doctor, give me some of that medicine, please".

/11
But I cd be wrong.
And that's why media, biz, politicians, thinktanks have a duty to ask for clarification.
Ask PVV & FVD to spell out their plan, what happens after Nexit?
Because, what they have now, is wafer-thin and has more holes than Swiss cheese (and they're in EFTA).
/n

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All are millionaires, some are billionaires

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#RejoinEU


https://t.co/mZRr9u1RPb


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On this, I think it’s highly unlikely to occur in the timeframe given. For several reasons, I don’t think it’s realistic for Scotland to secede, and then join the EU, in 9 years.

For that, thanks goes to Brexit.

A thread because why not...


Two important dates: March 2016 and January 1st 2021.

Firstly, prior to the 2014 referendum, the Nationalists proposed a date of March 2016 to secede.

Secondly, today - the end completion of Brexit five-and-a-half years after Cameron’s majority in 2015.

Brexit has demonstrated many things, primarily that splitting unions is not easy. The UKs membership of the EU was 47 years and by the end it was not at the heart of the EU. The Union has existed for over 300 as a unitary state.

Dividing a unitary state, like the UK, will not be easy. Frankly, it will make Brexit look simple. Questions of debt, currency, defence, and more will need to be resolved ... something not addressed with Brexit.

Starting with debt. Scotland will end up with its proportionate share of the UKs national debt. It’s not credible to suggest otherwise. Negotiating what is proportionate won’t be easy when both sides disagree.

It’s importance will be seen shortly.

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