On March 17, the Netherlands will have general elections.

Two parties - PVV & FVD - want a Nexit, a departure from the EU, in line with Brexit.

As the reality of the EU-UK trade agreement kicks in, let's take a look at what these parties

Firstly, good to note, here is their recent polling,

PVV: 14% - 23 seats (currently 20 seats)
FVD: 2.5% - 4 seats (currently 2 seats)

A government needs 76 seats to govern.

Give or take, these parties appeal to about 20% of the electorate.

/2
FVD wants a so-called "intelligent Nexit" because - arguably - they think the UK's departure was not-so-intelligent.

"Intelligent" Nexit. Lots of nodding

But FVD doesn't want to leave the EU, they want an end to the EU.

/3
They want a "different cooperation model among sovereign states" based around free trade, conveniently assuming that the EU will automatically cease to exist once the Dutch vote 'Leave'.

And EFTA should be the basis for the new model.

/4
It's full-on 'magical thinking'.

If you want to join EFTA, sure, make the case.

But be truthful about what it means.

The FVD decides to disregard the EEA agreement, which governs trade between the EFTA-4 and the EU27, and the EU rules and regs that EFTA countries follow.

/5
It's like FVD thinks it can strike bilateral deals with European countries once it has left the EU, because the EU will then have magically disappeared. (David Davis klaxon!)

It also thinks NL won't be in the EU-26's regulatory orbit, ...because EFTA countries aren't???🤦‍♂️

/6
I don't have time to go through all inconsistencies in their reasoning (yet).

Safe to say, this is not an "intelligent Nexit" but a "unicorn Nexit".

Here's the text: https://t.co/dGDNw3aajw

Unfortunately, people might actually fall for this.

Anyway, on to the PVV.

/7
PVV published its party programme yesterday.

They want to leave the EU because:

- EU fisheries policy
- unelected Eurocrats/ politically corrupt
- no control of our borders
- "we want control over our own money, migration policy & laws"

I see a theme!🧐

/8
Now I remember where I heard those points before!

And there you have it, in the party programme the PVV writes: "What the Brits can do, we can do too!"

/9
Ofcourse, here too, no ideas about the type of deal that the Netherlands could strike with the EU after departure, or what this means for rules & regulations, NTBs, tariffs, or economic effects.

It's all about the sovereignty, baby.

/10
I guess the PVV is right, "what the Brits did, we can do too." I'm just not sure the rest of the country thinks we should.

Looking back at the past four years in British politics, I don't think many in NL will say "yes doctor, give me some of that medicine, please".

/11
But I cd be wrong.
And that's why media, biz, politicians, thinktanks have a duty to ask for clarification.
Ask PVV & FVD to spell out their plan, what happens after Nexit?
Because, what they have now, is wafer-thin and has more holes than Swiss cheese (and they're in EFTA).
/n

More from Brexit

1. #Belfast #IrishSeaBorder There is no doubt that Brexit & the accompanying Irish Sea Border has destabilised the Union. Whilst the constitutional status of Northern Ireland has not changed, the fact of N.I remaining in the single market of the EU confirms it is”a place apart”.

2. Belfast Steve Aitkin/UUP, Mervyn Gibson/OrangeOrder,Jim Allister/TUV, Jamie Bryson/Unionist Blogger, etc etc, all see the Irish Sea Border & different economic arrangements for NI apart from Britain as a “betrayal”. It comes in a long line of Tory”betrayals”.

3. #Belfast They are correct. The Irish Sea Border & EU single market moves N.Ireland closer to the Republic of Ireland in terms of economic
https://t.co/tdKZhjKhWu,it doesn’t change the constitutional status of NI but it is a huge psychological blow to a Unionism.

4. #Belfast The DUP utterly failed to “strengthen the Union”. Their attempt to hold the minority Tory Theresa May govt to ransom backfired spectacularly when Boris Johnson won a significant majority. Their arrogance led them to be isolated & resented in Westminster.

5. #Belfast How does Unionism now react to this?Retreat to the”Bunker”?Repeat the ineffective “Flag”street activism of the past? The Union can now only be saved imo by reaching out to the 5-10% swing vote that will decide a future Border Poll on Irish unification,& it is coming.

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