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1/ Some people are looking at this map and saying: "it must have come from Europe". Here are a few reasons why that is unlikely.


2/ Though B.1.1.7 was especially prominent in Kent, the 2nd sequence ever sequenced was found in London, a day after the 1st. Due to superspreading it isn't possible to pinpoint for sure whether it originated in Kent or London. (If London, there's no argument for the continent).

3/ And suppose we did believe the new variant was introduced from abroad. Would we expect it to be introduced by sea or air? Far more arrivals to the UK in August/September occurred by air compared to sea.

4/ Genetic evidence. Suppose this highly transmissible variant had arisen in some other country, and made its way through France to the UK. It would also have left lots of descendants in Europe. We can look at a genetic tree of sequences and see that that is not the case.


5/ The grey/orange sequences here are UK sequences and the others are from an array of other countries. Specifically I've highlighted a lineage in Denmark which represents spread from a single introduction to Denmark, ultimately from the UK.
The Government is making the same mistakes as it did in the first wave. Except with knowledge.

A thread.


The Government's strategy at the beginning of the pandemic was to 'cocoon' the vulnerable (e.g. those in care homes). This was a 'herd immunity' strategy. This interview is from


This strategy failed. It is impossible to 'cocoon' the vulnerable, as Covid is passed from younger people to older, more vulnerable people.

We can see this playing out through heatmaps. e.g. these heatmaps from the second


The Government then decided to change its strategy to 'preventing a second wave that overwhelms the NHS'. This was announced on 8 June in Parliament.

This is not the same as 'preventing a second wave'.

https://t.co/DPWiJbCKRm


The Academy of Medical Scientists published a report on 14 July 'Preparing for a Challenging Winter' commissioned by the Chief Scientific Adviser that set out what needed to be done in order to prevent a catastrophe over the winter
1) Lots of politicians talking about the "Sanctity" & "Strength" of our "Institutions".

While failing to acknowledge that for a huge swath of Americans, that faith in those same Institutions has been impaired or destroyed.


2) President Trump didn't create this lack of faith. Nor the anger and distrust.

It has long been there, brewing and gathering strength. Precisely because of actions from those same Institutions.

The reactions from the Media & DC to Trump's term solidified those beliefs.

3) We just learned that the IC downplayed the role of China in the election for political purposes.

"Some of our career people, even CIA management, were politicizing China

4) The intentional distractions from China through a laughable focus on false claims of Russian-Collusion did irreparable harm to our country.

To date there has been one conviction for an institutional attempt to impair - even bring down - President Trump's administration.

5) Justice delayed is justice foregone.

Why is it that Justice seems to so lean heavily in one direction?

And why do people pervasively believe the Institutions protect their own?