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"NO LONGER BEST IN THE WORLD"
UNEP's new Human Development Index includes a new (separate) index: Planetary pressures-adjusted HDI (PHDI). News in Norway is that its position drops from #1 to #16 because of this, while Ireland rises from #2 to #1.
Why?

https://t.co/aVraIEzRfh


Check out Norway's 'Domestic Material Consumption'. Fossil fuels are no different here to Ireland's. What's different is this huge 'non-metallic minerals' category.
(Note also the jump in 1998, suggesting data problems.)
https://t.co/5QvzONbqmN


In Norway's case, it looks like the apparent consumption equation (production+imports-exports) for non-metal minerals is dominated by production: extraction of material in Norway.
https://t.co/5QvzONbqmN


And here we see that this production of non-metallic minerals is sand, gravel and crushed rock for construction. So it's about Norway's geology.
https://t.co/y6rqWmFVWc


Norway drops 15 places on the PHDI list not because of its CO₂ emissions (fairly high at 41st highest in the world per capita), but because of its geology, because it shifts a lot of rock whenever it builds anything.
A very interesting perspective from @jbralston. While I understand and respect Dr Ralston’s experience, I feel that it requires redress. I’m usually loath to making these kinds of interventions, but this is a subject close to me both personally & intellectually. 1/


I hope this thread is taken in the spirit decorum, respect, & admiration with which it is intended. Disclosure: My forthcoming monograph is an intellectual-historical study of the Syriac & Christian Arabic apologetic tradition, focusing on the Trinity, Incarnation, and cult. 2/

Now, Dr Ralston has said that although he is a Christian, the arguments of classical Muslim theologians against the Trinity & Incarnation win every time (though he allows that some medieval Christian Arabic thinkers had their moments). 3/

A solution, he proposes, is to write more theology in dialogue with Islam. I wholeheartedly agree. 4/

But I also think that this assessment (no doubt limited by this platform) rather diminishes the contributions of Middle Eastern Christians who have been theologising in the context of Islam for centuries (though I'm certain that was not Dr Ralston's intention). 5/
The ECB's long-standing negative rates policy remains unpopular in a union of chronic high savings (demand deficits) & yield-hungry investors. Here I argue that the ECB must do everything it can to escape its liquidity trap of “negative rates forever” CC @elerianm @VMRConstancio


First, negative rates are a reflection of a problem. Sub-zero arrived in Europe in 2014 in response to a critical problem of policy credibility – the arrival of the zero lower bound for the ECB’s main policy rate in the face of persistently low inflation expectations /thread/ 2/n

Europe, like much of the developed world, had seen a secular decline in the trend real rate even before the Covid19 shock, reflecting ageing populations and slower trend productivity growth - higher hhlds savings demand, lower business demand for capital #ECB #negativerates 3/n

The structural shock of the pandemic only accelerated the processes that began a decade ago with the Global Financial Crisis and the Euro government debt crises, pushing the eurozone trend rate even lower. #ECB #negativerates 4/n

This leaves the ECB facing a symmetric credibility challenge. In normal times, the ECB policy rate will follow the trend rate lower. If expected inflation adjusts to the demand-determined output gap, then the policy rate must fall below the equilibrium rate to bridge the gap. 5/n