BC BREXIT
Saved by @Alex1Powell

There are just 16 days to go until the end of the transition period

But how ready is the UK? (Tl,dr – it’s not and realistically can't be fully prepared)

(Long) thread, building on our @instituteforgov paper from November (most of which still stands…)

 First. What does being ready look like?

Deal or no deal – huge changes are coming in Jan. With new customs and regulatory checks at the border, new red tape and rules for businesses, the end of free movement of people +less effective security cooperation
https://t.co/auC1u8gK7h
In practice, the scale of these changes – and the limited time to prepare alongside covid- mean that the UK will never be fully ‘ready’. Inevitably there will be some disruption at the border, non-compliance with new rules and interrupted trade. Cannot foresee all eventualities.
What are the main stumbling blocks in preparations?
❌The GB-EU border
❌Business readiness
❓NI protocol - last week's agreement has resolved some issues – but there is still a lot to do
GB-EU border
The gov is just about on track to deliver IT systems infrastructure and people needed to make the GB-EU border work from Jan.
But a lot of this has come late in the day-leaving little time for full end-to-end testing and for businesses to make their own preparations
Much also rests on the private sector being ready. Most traders will rely on customs agents to complete paperwork on their behalf, and private sector vets to sign export health certificates. But capacity has been slow to rise to meet demand.
And all of this is after the UK government delayed introducing full import checks for 6 months.

Much more work is needed before these take effect in July.
Some government preparations have also been thrown off course. Flooding has delayed construction of one of the key ‘lorry parks’ in Kent, needed help manage new border processes – forcing the gov to rely on contingency plans https://t.co/dRuh3pNNV8
In contrast, EU member states are far more confident in their border infrastructure and processes – having been ready longer and subject to more testing. But risks remain on day one. https://t.co/FvfqWNX48H
It seems inevitable that there will be disruption at the border in Jan (even if it doesn’t all hit on 1 Jan).

A lot of the gov’s prep is about handling this – through lorry parks, contraflow systems and a new app to try and keep unprepared lorries away from the border.
Businesses have been preparing for the risk of delays too, by stockpiling and seeking alternative routes. But there are concerns that EU hauliers (~85% of the haulage market) could choose to avoid GB if there are delays – which could exacerbate problems.
Business readiness remains the biggest concern for January.

A punishing mix of covid, uncertainty over the outcome of negotiations and a lack of detailed guidance has hindered preparations and means many firms will not be ready for new rules.
But biz readiness is not uniform. High regulated services tends to be better prepared. Small biz tend to be less prepared. But readiness can vary between firms.

Nearly 2/3 of @The_IoD members say they are not fully prepared + @EY_UKI say 80% global biz not aware of all risks
Many are calling for a generous approach to enforcement on day one. Businesses do not want to break the rules–but may struggle to prepare and may find themselves acting unlawfully in Jan...
As @SamuelMarcLowe explores https://t.co/MiASdgBrFs
Delays in reaching a Brexit agreement mean that time may now have run out for businesses to enjoy all the benefits on 1 Jan, even if one is agreed.
For example, to benefit from zero tariffs, firms would have to comply with complex rules of origin requirements showing where their goods come from. But firms now say they won’t have time to do this without a grace period. https://t.co/kFNgasDIAo
Plus many regulatory changes don’t bite on 1 Jan. The UK government is phasing in many new rules and registration requirements over time. So businesses will have to keep preparing for Brexit changes well into 2021 and beyond.
https://t.co/qnzprl9KkU
Take a look at our @instituteforgov (and @sageuk) event from last week on business readiness for more detail on how businesses are preparing https://t.co/wKPR51T39U
NI protocol

Last week’s agreement on NI resolves many of the issues that risked most disruption at the GB-NI border on 1 Jan. But more detail is needed to understand how the various mitigations will work in practice.

See @Jess_Sargeant's piece for more https://t.co/C5QpdIdSGn
Many of these rely on the gov setting up new services or schemes for businesses- the trader support service for customs, movement support service for EHCs and the trusted trader scheme to avoid tariffs and rules of origin. With just days to go – the pressure is on gov IT teams
Many measures are also temporary – meaning firms, gov and NI executive must continue preparing for big changes next year.

And the gov seems to accept that January could still be bumpy – calling for pragmatism and sympathy next year…
Dealing with huge Brexit changes plus Covid and winter pressures will be a huge task for gov. It’s good to see ‘Operation Capstone’ contingency plans being tested this week. But as @FT reports, some parts of gov are stretched. Civil servants are fatigued https://t.co/W6SHQHv56x
The gov still needs to outline what Brexit economic support – if any - it will provide to biz. Reports suggest £8-10 billion to support hard hit sectors in a no deal. https://t.co/a1lZ83mNVv
But even with a deal, some could struggle with short term disruption to supply chains or adapt to new rules...

And targeting economic support will be incredibly difficult, given the ongoing impact of the Covid crisis complicating the task...
Ultimately, the UK is not ready for Brexit. To some extent, it can never be fully prepared. But more can be done in the weeks ahead.

But short timelines, Covid and deal uncertainty have not helped matters.

🎄🎄🎄🎄

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Two excellent questions at the end of a very sensible thread summarising the post-Brexit UK FP debate. My own take at attempting to offer an answer - ahead of the IR is as follow:


1. The two versions have a converging point: a tilt to the Indo-pacific doesn’t preclude a role as a convening power on global issues;
2. On the contrary, it underwrites the credibility for leadership on global issues, by seeking to strike two points:

A. Engaging with a part of the world in which world order and global issues are central to security, prosperity, and - not least - values;
B. Propelling the UK towards a more diversified set of economic, political, and security ties;

3. The tilt towards the Indo-Pacific whilst structurally based on a realist perception of the world, it is also deeply multilateral. Central to it is the notion of a Britain that is a convening power.
4. It is as a result a notion that stands on the ability to renew diplomacy;

5. It puts in relation to this a premium on under-utilised formats such as FPDA, 5Eyes, and indeed the Commonwealth - especially South Pacific islands;
6. It equally puts a premium on exploring new bilateral and multilateral formats. On former, Japan, Australia. On latter, Quad;
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Many bearish sentiments across the mortgage sector because they believe companies won't succeed as much when rate finally go back up (3 maybe 4 years from now). Which makes sense except for $GHIV and here's why. In 2016 Brexit came & rates went down which lead to huge success...

in mortgages. Business was great for many companies but then in ‘17 and ‘18, rates went up. What happened you might ask? A lot of people got compressed, margins got compressed, rates went down, & people struggled in the mortgage market...

Well UWM ( $GHIV ) compound annual growth rate, from ‘16 to ’18, was 28%. Companies that focused on refi struggled, so obviously a very successful company like Rocket or Quicken, they went down 14% in compound annual growth rate in those years...

$GHIV actually grew, and so did their profits, so the opportunity to continue to grow in all cycles is a big differentiator for UWM, and the broker channel versus a lot of our competitors. When rates rise, it's actually even better for $GHIV (UWM)..

If rates stay low, great UWM will continue to crush but when the rates rise, they will continue to steal even more market share because of how they operate in the mortgage sector. People also talk about the speed in closing a loan & that other competitors are faster...
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1/ Brexit politics is built on fear. Frightened people tend to seek security in the tribe. Once that tribe might have been the Labour movement, but now in a fragmented post-industrial society it is the nation. Tribal identification is emotional, not rational.


2/ A tribe that feels under threat wants to control its borders, and who enters into its territory. It demands loyalty and solidarity, and its prime virtue is self-sacrifice - economic arguments won't persuade tribalists. Its members want to feel it is strong and powerful.

3/ Tribalism at a time of crisis is intolerant of dissent. The tribe must pull together against its enemies. Dissent and questioning cause division and disrupt the collective effort. Criticism is seen as treason. The Brexit right have ruthlessly exploited tribal psychology.


4/ To understand Brexit politics it is necessary to understand that the working and middle classes are dead as coherent political forces and that frightened and insecure people are now clinging to the only available powerful tribe, the nation-tribe.

5/ The Brexit right understands and ruthlessly exploits basic social emotions. In contrast the centre and centre-left mostly can see no further than the blinkered logic of rational individualism, from which perspective everything else is irrational and incomprehensible.
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A further thread on the EU/UK musicians/visa for paid work issue (the issue is paid work: travelling to sing or play at eg a charity event for free can be done without a visa).


The position that we now have now (no relevant provisions under the TCA) is complicated. For EU musicians visiting the UK see


In essence the UK permits foreign (including EU) nationals to stay up to 30 days to carry out paid engagements, but they must (a) prove they are a professional musician and (b) be invited by an established UK business.

Either condition could be tricky for a young musician starting out and wanting to play gigs. And 30 days isn’t long enough for a part in a show with a run.

Longer stays require a T5 visa - which generally requires you to be in a shortage occupation (play an instrument not played in the UK?) or to have an established international reputation.
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