BC BREXIT
Saved by @Alex1Powell

There are just 16 days to go until the end of the transition period

But how ready is the UK? (Tl,dr – it’s not and realistically can't be fully prepared)

(Long) thread, building on our @instituteforgov paper from November (most of which still stands…)

 First. What does being ready look like?

Deal or no deal – huge changes are coming in Jan. With new customs and regulatory checks at the border, new red tape and rules for businesses, the end of free movement of people +less effective security cooperation
https://t.co/auC1u8gK7h
In practice, the scale of these changes – and the limited time to prepare alongside covid- mean that the UK will never be fully ‘ready’. Inevitably there will be some disruption at the border, non-compliance with new rules and interrupted trade. Cannot foresee all eventualities.
What are the main stumbling blocks in preparations?
❌The GB-EU border
❌Business readiness
❓NI protocol - last week's agreement has resolved some issues – but there is still a lot to do
GB-EU border
The gov is just about on track to deliver IT systems infrastructure and people needed to make the GB-EU border work from Jan.
But a lot of this has come late in the day-leaving little time for full end-to-end testing and for businesses to make their own preparations
Much also rests on the private sector being ready. Most traders will rely on customs agents to complete paperwork on their behalf, and private sector vets to sign export health certificates. But capacity has been slow to rise to meet demand.
And all of this is after the UK government delayed introducing full import checks for 6 months.

Much more work is needed before these take effect in July.
Some government preparations have also been thrown off course. Flooding has delayed construction of one of the key ‘lorry parks’ in Kent, needed help manage new border processes – forcing the gov to rely on contingency plans https://t.co/dRuh3pNNV8
In contrast, EU member states are far more confident in their border infrastructure and processes – having been ready longer and subject to more testing. But risks remain on day one. https://t.co/FvfqWNX48H
It seems inevitable that there will be disruption at the border in Jan (even if it doesn’t all hit on 1 Jan).

A lot of the gov’s prep is about handling this – through lorry parks, contraflow systems and a new app to try and keep unprepared lorries away from the border.
Businesses have been preparing for the risk of delays too, by stockpiling and seeking alternative routes. But there are concerns that EU hauliers (~85% of the haulage market) could choose to avoid GB if there are delays – which could exacerbate problems.
Business readiness remains the biggest concern for January.

A punishing mix of covid, uncertainty over the outcome of negotiations and a lack of detailed guidance has hindered preparations and means many firms will not be ready for new rules.
But biz readiness is not uniform. High regulated services tends to be better prepared. Small biz tend to be less prepared. But readiness can vary between firms.

Nearly 2/3 of @The_IoD members say they are not fully prepared + @EY_UKI say 80% global biz not aware of all risks
Many are calling for a generous approach to enforcement on day one. Businesses do not want to break the rules–but may struggle to prepare and may find themselves acting unlawfully in Jan...
As @SamuelMarcLowe explores https://t.co/MiASdgBrFs
Delays in reaching a Brexit agreement mean that time may now have run out for businesses to enjoy all the benefits on 1 Jan, even if one is agreed.
For example, to benefit from zero tariffs, firms would have to comply with complex rules of origin requirements showing where their goods come from. But firms now say they won’t have time to do this without a grace period. https://t.co/kFNgasDIAo
Plus many regulatory changes don’t bite on 1 Jan. The UK government is phasing in many new rules and registration requirements over time. So businesses will have to keep preparing for Brexit changes well into 2021 and beyond.
https://t.co/qnzprl9KkU
Take a look at our @instituteforgov (and @sageuk) event from last week on business readiness for more detail on how businesses are preparing https://t.co/wKPR51T39U
NI protocol

Last week’s agreement on NI resolves many of the issues that risked most disruption at the GB-NI border on 1 Jan. But more detail is needed to understand how the various mitigations will work in practice.

See @Jess_Sargeant's piece for more https://t.co/C5QpdIdSGn
Many of these rely on the gov setting up new services or schemes for businesses- the trader support service for customs, movement support service for EHCs and the trusted trader scheme to avoid tariffs and rules of origin. With just days to go – the pressure is on gov IT teams
Many measures are also temporary – meaning firms, gov and NI executive must continue preparing for big changes next year.

And the gov seems to accept that January could still be bumpy – calling for pragmatism and sympathy next year…
Dealing with huge Brexit changes plus Covid and winter pressures will be a huge task for gov. It’s good to see ‘Operation Capstone’ contingency plans being tested this week. But as @FT reports, some parts of gov are stretched. Civil servants are fatigued https://t.co/W6SHQHv56x
The gov still needs to outline what Brexit economic support – if any - it will provide to biz. Reports suggest £8-10 billion to support hard hit sectors in a no deal. https://t.co/a1lZ83mNVv
But even with a deal, some could struggle with short term disruption to supply chains or adapt to new rules...

And targeting economic support will be incredibly difficult, given the ongoing impact of the Covid crisis complicating the task...
Ultimately, the UK is not ready for Brexit. To some extent, it can never be fully prepared. But more can be done in the weeks ahead.

But short timelines, Covid and deal uncertainty have not helped matters.

🎄🎄🎄🎄

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Amid all the announcements today, it's easy to overlook that the OBR has updated its scenario on a no-deal Brexit. It exposes an undeniably hard reality for the Govt that claims that the UK would "prosper mightily" under no-deal next year.

(Short thread)

1. Key chart: a no-deal/WTO/Australia-style Brexit would delay the point at which econ output regains its pre-virus peak by "almost a year to the third quarter of 2023."

In the upside scenario, this cross-over point could be at the start of 2022; in the downside, in 2025. Grim.


2. Next year, a no deal Brexit would reduce real GDP by around a further 2% - as a result of immediate disruption to the border and uncertainty facing businesses. That's on top of the Covid-related contraction.


3. While there's some short-term border disruption, most of the costs come in the medium term: from lost employment; productivity losses; lower business investment.

Exactly the opposite of what the Chancellor said to @AndrewMarr9 on Sunday.

4. Underneath these numbers, output would fall *below* the Covid levels for several key sectors: Manufacturing, professional services, financial services, retail, energy.

All trade intensive sectors that have been spared the same drop in output as the non-tradables this year.
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As the transition period ends, the #BrexitDeal applies from tomorrow. But there's also a parallel significant legal change - most of the rest of the withdrawal agreement starts to apply. A thread on the legal issues in the rest of that agreement.


The citizens' rights provisions of the withdrawal agreement (on EU citizens who moved to the UK, and UK citizens who moved to the EU, before the end of the transition period) start to apply.

Annotation and detailed analysis of those provisions here:

After today, UK citizens newly moving to the EU, or EU citizens newly moving to the UK, are in principle governed by national law (partly harmonised by the EU, on the EU side).

However, the #BrexitDeal contains some provisions on visas for service providers.

The #BrexitDeal also refers to the matching unilateral decisions of the EU and UK to waive a visa requirement for short tourist visits. Analysis of the EU law on that issue here:

UK citizens resident in the EU on the basis of the withdrawal agreement (or who move to EU in future) should be covered by the EU law on long-term resident non-EU citizens, which provides for a limited form of mobility between Member States. Analysis here:
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On this, I think it’s highly unlikely to occur in the timeframe given. For several reasons, I don’t think it’s realistic for Scotland to secede, and then join the EU, in 9 years.

For that, thanks goes to Brexit.

A thread because why not...


Two important dates: March 2016 and January 1st 2021.

Firstly, prior to the 2014 referendum, the Nationalists proposed a date of March 2016 to secede.

Secondly, today - the end completion of Brexit five-and-a-half years after Cameron’s majority in 2015.

Brexit has demonstrated many things, primarily that splitting unions is not easy. The UKs membership of the EU was 47 years and by the end it was not at the heart of the EU. The Union has existed for over 300 as a unitary state.

Dividing a unitary state, like the UK, will not be easy. Frankly, it will make Brexit look simple. Questions of debt, currency, defence, and more will need to be resolved ... something not addressed with Brexit.

Starting with debt. Scotland will end up with its proportionate share of the UKs national debt. It’s not credible to suggest otherwise. Negotiating what is proportionate won’t be easy when both sides disagree.

It’s importance will be seen shortly.
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john milbank
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This very short article by Jeremy Cliffe is the best thing I have ever read on Brexit and the EU. It pivots on the contrast between Delors’ and Thatcher’s authentically provincial Christian visions and suggests the battle in Britain between the two is not over.


Thatcher: Protestant believer in the totally free market and absolutely sovereign centralised nation state. Delors: Catholic believer in third way personalism, corporatism and federalism. Individualism versus relational love. Heterodoxy versus Orthodoxy.

The article useful gives the lie to the idea that the Catholic vision of the EU has altogether vanished even though it is weakened. Delors wanted a social dimension to the free market and single currency and yet lexiteers laughably insist the EU is more neoliberal than the U.K.!

Subsidiary federalism is a doctrine of democracy and human fraternity. State sovereignty is a doctrine of naked power. It is a face of Antichrist. Leviathan.

Those combined that democracy can only be inside a single state fail to power just how much of private law and evermore so is necessarily international. Thus if political institutions don’t extend over borders there can be no democracy.
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Michael M. \U0001f1e8\U0001f1ed\U0001f1f3\U0001f1f4\U0001f1ee\U0001f1f8\U0001f1f1\U0001f1ee\U0001f1ec\U0001f1e7
Michael M. 🇨🇭🇳🇴🇮🇸🇱🇮🇬🇧...
@vivamjm
When we had a [Brexit] deal, I thought, we're saved all the rigmarole and hassle, it'll work sweet as a nut, but it hasn't happened," says Mr Flannigan. Instead, he says, it feels like the clock's been turned back 30 years
People really don't have a "sweet as a nut" clue do they?

Yes "30 years" and worse ..because you are now outside the Single Market & "worse" outside the Customs Union too . You're now trading under conditions more like Belarussia into EU without the customs & logistical capacity to handle the volumes. Your business will most likely fail

This was always so ..regardless of the "deal" esp with "87% of Berwick Shellfish's £1.7m sales go to France, Spain and Germany"
Next....
"The real test for me is the next two to three weeks, as inventory is depleted and orders increase," says Mr Munro.

"He thinks there's a window of opportunity now, for the authorities to fine tune the system before volumes are ramped up" .. "fine tune" Oh FFS...!! wake up.

The BBC report a litany of businesses not understanding the "deal" was always going to mean being outside the SM/CU

"Mr Dormer fears the "massive amount of aggravation" could mean business partners on the continent start to look elsewhere.".....errrr ...yes.

Note how though the report leads with a suggestion of EU "pettiness"
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