BC WORLD
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

Let's talk about that "Longer Telegram" making the rounds...and why it's a

 First, to be clear, it IS NOT a telegram. It's a report. I mean, it has a flipping 11.5 page executive "summary"...
...a two page table of contents...
...and clocks in at 62 pages (minus the forward and executive summary) or 73 pages (if you include the executive summary).
Of course, the author of "The Longer Telegram" calls it a "telegram" because they want it to be directly and explicitly compared to George Kennan's 1946 "Long Telegram" about US policy towards the Soviet Union.

https://t.co/rHikkOYuoT
But Kennan's "Long Telegram" is called "The Long Telegram" because it was, in fact, a telegram.

Kennan is even apologetic about that fact, as he writes at the beginning, "I apologize in advance for this burdening of telegraphic channel"
Also, Kennan's "Long Telegram" was long for a telegram, but not as a report. It clocks in at 18.5 pages.
Second, the Kennan-obsession of "The Longer Telegram"'s author is also evident by the author choosing to be anonymous.
But here is a fun fact: Kennan put his NAME on the Long Telegram
The ANONYMOUS writing came a year later (July 1947), when Kennan expanded the telegram into a report that was then published in @ForeignAffairs under the title "The Sources of Soviet Conduct"

Oh, and it wasn't "Anonymous", it was "X"
For those keeping track, the FA article was 17 pages.
Third, I love bullet points & numbered lists. I really do (ask anyone who has served on a committee with me). But "The Longer Telegram" is just TOO much.

Nearly every page of the "Executive Summary" is a list.
It doesn't get much better in the report itself.

I mean, here's a page that makes the bold move of transitioning from a bullet point list to a number list....
...where the number list then goes on for several pages!
Now, it's true that Kennan used numbered/lettered lists in his telegram. But that's because it was...again...a TELEGRAM (it also had missing words in spots as is common with telegrams)

Even then, none of the lists had 17 (SEVENTEEN!) points!
Moreover, the FA article version (again, the one that was actually anonymous) had NO bullet points or numbered lists. Just prose and paragraphs (and section headings)
Fourth, let's move to substance. After all, all of the above is cosmetic and what really matters is the substance, right? Sure, but the substance doesn't make things better in this case.
Let's start by considering the substance of Kennan's telegram.

MOST of it is about the Soviet Union itself. Indeed, 4 of the telegram's 5 parts focus on the USSR.
The final part addresses how the US should respond given the telegram's description of the USSR and its policy.

The key point is that USSR typically backs down when confronted. Therefore, a show of strength & resolve should result in the US never having to actually use force
In the FA piece, Kennan called this approach "containment"
As for "The Longer Telegram"?

If you're playing buzz-phrase bingo, mark "Liberal International Order"
Oh, and OF COURSE the report has a reference to Sun Tzu. I'll admit this got a hard 🙄 from me
I will acknowledge that the Longer Telegram's goal of "keep China in the US order" is distinct from the Long Telegram's recommendation of "keep the Soviets outside the US order".
But this recommendation for US policy towards China is not new.

It's been said better (& more economically) elsewhere.

For example, see this @CarnegieEndow report by @MiraRappHooper, @Michael_S_Chase, Matake Kamiya, Shin Kawashima, & @Yuichi_Hosoya.

https://t.co/CqOnaq2Gp1
I'll admit that my assessment of this telegram/report/memo/doorstop is influenced by my own views on the future of US-China relations, which tend toward the "hawkish" side (as I wrote recently in @WarOnTheRocks)

https://t.co/zvonnh78IS
And I would of course defer to experts on China and Chinese foreign policy (though from what I've seen, they are also NOT IMPRESSED)

https://t.co/bdfGhpBFjL
But, overall, this report/telegram/whatever falls WAY short of it's aspiration of mimicking Kennan.

[END]

More from Paul Poast

Paul Poast
Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
Why are civil-mil scholars upset about Austin Lloyd's nomination as the 28th Secretary of Defense?

Consider the nomination of the 3rd Secretary of Defense: George Marshall

[THREAD]


In 1950, Truman wanted to fire the second SecDef, Louis Johnson, and install George Marshall as Secretary of Defense.


There was a problem: when the Department of Defense was created in 1947, section 202 of the 1947 National Security Act (which created the DoD, then called "The National Military Establishment") would not allow recently retired officers to serve as SecDef

https://t.co/bWx4h1OFah


Marshall had only retired as a 5-star General in 1947


Of course, by 1950 Marshall had already served as Secretary of State and had proposed the "Marshall Plan" for the recovery of Europe
HISTORY
Paul Poast
Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
What's the "value" offered by international relations scholarship?

What does it mean to think about world events "like an international relations scholar"?

Trump's order to withdrawal 🇺🇸 troops from 🇸🇴 offers a useful

This event could be viewed from a variety of angles, from the "micro-level" on up.

International Relations scholars/analysts can and do use each of the following angles, though not all are strictly speaking taking an "International Relations angle".

Let's explore the angles.

The "country-expert" angle entails discussing the event by laying out the situation within Somalia, providing details on key figures involved and perhaps how the conflict has disrupted Somalia's internal governance and

The "Military/Security analyst" angle involves outlining the details of what US troops presently do in Somalia and how they carry out their mission (including equipment, mission, and tactics).

See this @ChathamHouse report by

The "Area Studies/Regional Expert" angle involves discussing the decision as an event that will impact the Horn of Africa or East Africa more
TRUMP
Advertisement
Paul Poast
Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
Is it true that democracies don't go to war with each other?

Sort of. But I wouldn't base public policy on the finding.

Why? Let's turn to the data.

[THREAD]


The idea of a "Democratic Peace" is a widely held view that's been around for a long time.

By 1988, there already existed enough studies on the topic for Jack Levy to famously label Democratic Peace "an empirical law"


The earliest empirical work on the topic was the 1964 report by Dean Babst published in the "Wisconsin Sociologist"


Using the war participation data from Quincy Wright's "A Study of War", Babst produced the following two tables


The tables show that democracies were NOT on both sides (of course, Finland is awkward given that it fought WITH Nazi Germany against the Soviet Union).

Babst expanded his study beyond the World Wars in a 1972 paper in Industrial Research. He confirmed his finding.
GOVERNMENT
Paul Poast
Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
Was the attack on the US Capitol an attempted coup?

Rather than debate that question here (or in another forum), I'm making it an assignment. Specifically, I'm asking my Quantitative Security students to determine if it belongs in our coup/attempted coup datasets.

[THREAD]

A core goal of this course is to introduce students to how Large-N data on violence and security are created.

We put WAY TOO much emphasis on estimators & software (Stata v R 🙄); not enough on the quality of the data going into the analysis.

First, what happened? @johncarey03755 offers a succinct

Second, I'll ask the students to read some of the recent pieces that say the event was NOT a coup attempt.

These include...

...detailed twitter threads by
GOVERNMENT
Paul Poast
Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
After 4 years of Donald Trump, the US must "reassure" its allies.

That's what I'm reading/hearing lately, such as in this @nytimes piece. What do international relations scholars know about reassuring allies? Can it be done? Is it even

This passage from the article captures well the call for "reassurance": the US must convince its allies in Asia and Europe that the US would indeed use its nukes to protect them.


That's a tall order!

Indeed, such a tall order that it's been a major question explored by international relations scholars for a long time. A LONG TIME.

The topic was of keen debate in the 1950s, with Henry Kissinger writing a series of pieces on the topic, such as this 1956 @ForeignAffairs

The academic discussion picked up in the late 1950s and early 1960s.

This included Robert Schelling's paper in the first issue of the Journal of Conflict
BIDEN

More from World

Xy5Z89\U0001f1e9\U0001f1ea\U0001f1ea\U0001f1fa
Xy5Z89🇩🇪🇪🇺...
@Xy5Z89
-THREADE-
#Germany #China #5G #Huawei

In contrast to countries like Great Britain, Germany does not exclude the Chinese with 5G across the board. But now the cabinet has agreed on stricter rules for foreign network equipment suppliers.

The federal government has been arguing for two years, now there is a draft law, the cabinet is supposed to get it underway on Wednesday. In contrast to countries like Great Britain and Sweden, Germany does not exclude Chinese companies across the board.

But Berlin, too, subjects the use of companies to strict rules. This is a problem for the German network operators: they have made themselves heavily dependent on #Huawei over the past few years. In the radio network of Deutsche Telekom, Vodafone and Telefónica,

around half of all components usually come from Huawei. With the new 5G cellular standard, data can be transmitted in real time. This opens up new opportunities for industry, but also increases the risk of cyber attacks. The focus on security is correspondingly large.

The draft of a “Second Law to Increase the Security of Information Technology Systems” therefore now uses a two-stage test procedure. In addition to an examination of the technology, there should also be a political assessment of the trustworthiness of manufacturers.
WORLD
\ud050\ud2f0/100
큐티/100
@qtpiebyunbaek
210126 KYUNGSOO V-LIVE

Kyungsoo: Hi, I've been discharged from the military. To thank EXO-Ls, I started a V-Live~ I was discharged safely! I think y'all would have a lot of things you're curious about in my 1.5 years in army, it's a little awkward (doing this) but I'll try!

Kyungsoo: There's really a lot of things that I want to eat, as there are fixed menus in the military. I had lots of food made by Mum, I ate lots! Although things are tough now, I don't know how to say this but let's gain strength together and defeat this difficult time!

Kyungsoo: As for activities, there is a production called 'The Moon', it would be good if you could anticipate! There's a lot of things I wanted to try while in the military, like Guitar, I'm in the midst of taking lessons too.

Kyungsoo: There is music that I wish to try, so I'm planning hard to bring them to everyone! I read all the letters while in the military and I spent a lot of time reading them all- thank you so much! I'm really proud, and while reading them I felt really happy <3
WORLD
Advertisement
Paul Furber
Paul Furber
@paul_furber
Good question: what proofs has BDA provided of his authenticity?

Let's go through some of them.


- BDA predicted the Saudis would assassinate Suleimani. They did.
- He said the dog that got Badghadi's arm deserved a Medal Of Honor. The next day the President posted a joke image showing him giving the dog a MoH.

- He said one of his ops in Syria would severely disrupt a CIA drug trafficking operation. This was proved true within a few days:
https://t.co/Hranupwcxj
- He sent gold to Brazil to help pay for an anti-trafficking operation there. That op became public soon afterwards.

- On May 31 this year, he predicted the President would be giving a speech the next day. June 1, the President gives a surprise address at the Rose Garden.
- He predicted the US would be making diplomatic moves on Greenland. True.

- He said the US would be pulling all troops out of Afghanistan. This was confirmed within the month.
- He claimed earthquakes would be hitting Iran's nuclear facilities in December. Yep.
- There were FOUR facilities hit, not the three made public. Also true.
WORLD
Arash Azizi
Arash Azizi
@arash_tehran
Iranian Reformist Front (Jebheye Eslathalabane Iran) was officially founded yesterday in Jamaran, Khomeini's historic house near Tehran.

The founding meeting elected Behzad Nabavi as an interim head since he is oldest.

And also 5 people as a committee to draft the IRF's by-laws


The five are:

1- Outspoken Tehran MP @mah_sadeghi
2- Faraj Komijani, politician with a base in an official teachers union
3- Ali Bagheri (low-key politician)
4- @MansooriAzar , noted reformist politician
5- Rouhani's ex-VP @mowlaverdi

Some more pictures of the meeting.

The next meeting of the group is on Wednesday and will be held virtually.

The top question remains whether and who (and how many candidates) to run for the coming #IranElections2021


The founding statement says the reformists will run a single candidate agreed by all reformist parties but only if elections are to be "free, legal, competitive, just and constitutional"... which is obviously not what's going to happen!

The founding statement also includes big demands like call for a referendum to revise the constitution. But as usual these big words aren't followed by any actions.
WORLD
MIT Technology Review
MIT Technology Review
@techreview
This is a thread about how Australia has become the battleground for a power struggle between governments and Big Tech, as explained in today’s Download newsletter. https://t.co/BJ7uxYhoIl


Australians woke up on Thursday to Facebook timelines devoid of any news.

Faced with the option of either paying to link back to publishers to comply with an incoming Australian law, or entirely pulling the plug on hosting news, it chose the latter.

As it stands, Facebook users in Australia can't use the platform to see or share content from any news outlets anywhere in the world, and no one can post links to Australian publishers, wherever they are.

Users say government websites like fire services and meteorology departments have been caught up in the ban too, most likely due to issues with the machine learning
system Facebook uses to enforce it.
WORLD

You May Also Like

John Myles White
John Myles White
@johnmyleswhite
This post is pretty bizarre, but it manages to hit on so many false beliefs that I've seen hurt junior data scientists that it deserves some explicit

(1) The notion that R is well-suited to "building web applications" seems totally out of left field. I don't feel like most R loyalists think this is a good idea, but it's worth calling out that no normal company will be glad you wrote your entire web app in R.

(2) It is true that Python had some issues historically with the 2-to-3 transition, but it's not such a big deal these days. On the flip side, I have found interesting R code that doesn't run in modern R interpreters because of changes in core operations (e.g. assignment syntax).

(3) "Most of the time we only need a latest, working interpreter with the latest packages to run the code" -- this is where things get real and reveal some things that hurt data scientists. If this sentence is true, it's likely because you don't share code with coworkers.

(3) Really is a broader issue in data science: people only think of what they need to do their work if no one else existed and code was never maintained. Junior data scientists almost always operate on projects they start from scratch and don't have to maintain for long.
DATA SCIENCE
\u0936\u094d\u0930\u0940\u092e\u093e\u0932\u0940 \u0939\u093f\u0924\u0947\u0936 \u0905\u0935\u0938\u094d\u0925\u0940
श्रीमाली हितेश अवस्थी...
@HiteshAwasthi89
Sri Parasurameswara Swamy Mandir, Gudimallam, Andhrapradesh

Gudimallam is a small village located in Chittoor district. It is seven miles away from Tirupati. This small village came to significance,due to it's very beautiful Shiva Mandir with history of thousands of years. 1/n


The main importance of the mandir lies in the Linga which is housed in the Garbhagriha of the temple & considered as the only one of such type. It is the earliest Linga discovered so far and it has been assigned to the 3rd century BCE.(Satavahana period) 2/n
ALL
Advertisement
\uff2c\uff41\uff44\uff59 \uff22\uff4c\uff41\uff5a\uff45\uff53
Ｌａｄｙ Ｂｌａｚｅｓ...
@Lady_Blazes
Oh my Goodness!!!

I might have a panic attack due to excitement!!

Read this thread to the end...I just had an epiphany and my mind is blown. Actually, more than blown. More like OBLITERATED! This is the thing! This is the thing that will blow the entire thing out of the water!


Has this man been concealing his true identity?

Is this man a supposed 'dead' Seal Team Six soldier?

Witness protection to be kept safe until the right moment when all will be revealed?!

Who ELSE is alive that may have faked their death/gone into witness protection?


Were "golden tickets" inside the envelopes??


Are these "golden tickets" going to lead to their ultimate undoing?

Review crumbs on the board re: 'gold'.


#SEALTeam6 Trump re-tweeted this.
GOVERNMENT
Ferruccio Balestreri \U0001f308
Ferruccio Balestreri 🌈...
@0xferruccio
🕵️‍♂️ How Google's PageRank algorithm works

The PageRank algorithm gives each page a rating of its
importance, which is a recursively defined measure of importance, based on if important pages link to it.
It's recursive because the importance of a page refers back to the importance of other pages that link to it

Here's how it works in practice:
1⃣ We start with some pages and crawl them for links


2⃣ Each page has 1/N points (where N as the total number of pages)


3⃣ Add points to each page for the amount of links to it, divided by the number
of links emanating from the sources of these links
TECH
Vikrant
Vikrant
@Trading0secrets
Trading view scanner process -

1 - open trading view in your browser and select stock scanner in left corner down side .

2 - touch the percentage% gain change ( and u can see higest gainer of today)


3. Then, start with 6% gainer to 20% gainer and look charts of everyone in daily Timeframe . (For fno selection u can choose 1% to 4% )

4. Then manually select the stocks which are going to give all time high BO or 52 high BO or already given.

5. U can also select those stocks which are going to give range breakout or already given range BO

6 . If in 15 min chart📊 any stock sustaing near BO zone or after BO then select it on your watchlist

7 . Now next day if any stock show momentum u can take trade in it with RM

This looks very easy & simple but,

U will amazed to see it's result if you follow proper risk management.

I did 4x my capital by trading in only momentum stocks.

I will keep sharing such learning thread 🧵 for you 🙏💞🙏

Keep learning / keep sharing 🙏
@AdityaTodmal
EQUITY , TRADINGTHREAD , TRADINGVIEW