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around 2:30pm today. Basically the same time or a whisker before the Commonwealth CMO fronted the microphone. After VIC and SA (and earlier, QLD and WA) made their announcements. He misleads at best, conflating Northern Beaches restrictions with the rest of Sydney. Also tROoPs.


wow now Palasczuzk is up. Btw Morrison took a few seconds of his 3-minute piece to camera, posted to the gram, to say that “everybody is doing their job” lol a deadset giveaway.

the QLD Premier is also putting restrictions in place on greater Sydney. Now is not the time to visit the Sunshine State thanks Sydneysiders, she says. Not dissimilar to VIC, she says.

Dr Young (Queensland CHO) says greater Sydney is a declared hot spot, which includes the extended south coast to central coast areas, from 1am tomorrow. Queenslanders returning home will have to quarantine.

Qld CHO says tougher border restrictions necessary because so many other restrictions around Qld have been lifted. Few exemptions will be granted, she predicts. Anyone who has come to Qld from greater Sydney asked to test and notify Qld health authorities.
Most 🌍 comparisons for C19 go wrong as they don't considering demographics.

For countries I've managed to src detailed death data for, here's total d/1m numbers.

Sure,🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 look similar to 🇧🇷🇵🇪, but just look at the differences <60, 🇵🇪 4x larger.

So what does this mean?

1/9


Basically, fewer >80, means they've had⏫spread, and ⏫younger deaths, but👀equal.

Here ranking⏫2⏬by age are:
▶️20 countries
▶️NY city
▶️The World
That I've 👀at so far.

50% marks the median age, e.g.
🇮🇹 47
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿41
🌍30
🇳🇬18

So expecting similar deaths overall is silly.

2/9


So how have deaths actually played out?

Here are the props. by age to late Dec for places with detailed data.

Looks like NYC, 🇧🇷 & 🇵🇪 have seen far more in the young.

Now these all have younger pops. so is spread the same? Are diff just down to demographics?

3/9


No, many factors, the biggest age, and the likelihood of death in each age band.

🌍serology studies have sampled a similar risk in each 10yr band, with this going up 3 fold with each band.

Here is a plot of what🌍avgs are.

So what else do we need to worry about?

4/9


Factors like:
▶️healthcare: beds nos, better care, etc
▶️comorbidity rates: e.g. obesity, OECD 4x India, but only effects 15%
▶️lifestyle impacts: carehomes VS elderly@home
etc

But, many cancel out.
e.g. 1st🌍better healthcare, but fatter.

What about a lack of treatment?

5/9
A few half-baked thoughts on Laschet and Syria and some such.

First off, it's revolting to see any mainstream politician spread what appear to be conspiracy theories about atrocities committed by the Assad regime in the Syrian war. In fact, to *volunteer* them. Unprompted. /1


I stopped counting the dozens of friends, colleagues, officials from around the world, but in particular, the Middle East, who have sent me his tweets over the past week. The common response from Berlin appears to be an uncomfortable "well, he's not a foreign policy guy..." /2

But he is! I think it's easy to underestimate the man and his jovial, slightly pudgy and self-deprecating persona. There's also a tendency in Berlin and outside to confuse regional politics (and accents!) for provincialism. But Laschet is from Aachen - in the heart of Europe. /3

His first job in politics was with Hans Stercken, then-chairman of the Bundestag's foreign affairs committee, in the tumultuous mid-late 80s. As a new member of Bundestag in 1994, he joined the committees for int development, EU affairs, and foreign affairs (as an alternate). /4

Some headlines refer to him as a "Merkel-loyalist". At least when I flipped thru his record from the 90s, I got a sense of a man with profound convictions: A passionate European. But also an early proponent of CDU-Greens rapprochement based on a shared moralistic worldview. /5
It has been 60 days since @AbiyAhmedAli declared #WarOnTigray. 60 days on, the war still rages across Tigray & the region is still under almost full communication, banking and transport block out. From the limited info that comes out, millions of people are starving 1


due to lack of access to power, cash to buy supplies as banks are still closed and bank accounts every Tigrayan suspended, & absence of trade activities. UNICEF reports that more than 2m children in Tigray are completely cut off from humanitarian assist https://t.co/ylWJQ0u0NF 2

Civilians killed and displaced: According to UN-OCHA, there are reportedly over a million internally displaced people with no humanitarian assistance. Families in their hundreds of 1000s are separated. We also hear that supplies of humanitarian assistance are deliberately

curtailed by the regime. Despite Eth-UN agreements to allow unfettered humanitarian access, areas outside Mekelle are inaccessible for humanitarian actors.

Ethnic profiling: travel restrictions have been placed on #Tigrayans across #Ethiopia.

Tigrayans across Ethiopia face #ethnicprofiling in their workplaces (many have been laid off or told to stay at home, mostly without pay), their homes are arbitrarily searched, are constantly harassed & arrested by security forces.

Impoverishing Tigray: