sure, only request. Plz do not take it negative. Get over metric like PE, even if use it , at least take cash flow based PE. Many times, it would make worst investments attractive n decent one unattractive. It has lot of bias, limitation n constraint. 1 must know before using it

So, above Rs 250 Cr market cap (thats where I like to play mostly), out of 1168 companies:

> 40% correction : 6% companies
> 30% correction : 18% companies
> 20% correction : 45% companies

Not bad. So, almost evey second company is down by 20% from life time high

#Maithanalloys part 2 on valuation n other details will be out this weekend. In case you have not watches part 1, it's here. This is for fundamental investors.

Prediction is an addition in financial world many suffer from

Sorry, addiction

@soicfinance @suru27 Indeed. For later, industry/sector has to be within your circle of competence to judge the turnaround correctly.

Because according to Warren Buffett
"Both our operating and investment experience cause us to conclude that turnarounds seldom turn"

@Namajapa In my experience value stocks are the ones with undervalued optionality - the possibility things get unexpectedly better. Expensive story stocks by contrast anticipate and price in all manner of good future outcomes long before they are actually delivered/deliverable.

@datta_arvind @alphaideas If you buy a stock growing at 30%+ trading at PE 70 and continue to trade at PE 70 over 5 years!

1/ @mjmauboussin's book Expectations Investing is a masterclass in valuation & strategy

His framework uses price-implied expectations to assess companies, an elegant way to invert valuation

https://t.co/kESplMN3nW

To practice these concepts, I wrote a case study on Chipotle⤵️

2/ Chipotle is the leading fast casual restaurant chain across the US, with almost 3,000 owned & operated locations

They benefit from strong unit economics and a trusted brand

We'll discuss consensus estimates, competitive landscape, and expected

3/ We must first identify the price-implied expectations based on key value drivers

After finding the consensus estimates, investors can seek opportunities in the expectations - looking for a divergence from the market's assumptions

Let's start with Chipotle's sales growth

4/ Chipotle has grown revenues from $3.9B to $7.55B over the past 5 years, at a 5 year CAGR of 14.1%

Analysts estimate a 13.7% consensus growth rate based on 5-7% same store sales growth, 8% additional store openings per year, and steady digital sales contribution

5/ Next is operating profit margin, which measures profitability from core operations

Chipotle has slowly been growing its margin, now at 10.67%

Analysts expect high margins of 15.75%, with incremental profits from digital orders and unit-level margin growth contributing

Never make the mistake of selling a great business just because it's overvalued.