Analyzed last 12 years of historical data to check if there are any patterns we can observe to find the best time to invest in stocks for long term. #Nifty50 #investing #stocks 1/10

This is how Nifty moved in last 15 years with three major corrections, in the year 2008,then around 2016 and then year 2020 due to Coronavirus. Only when we look back with hindsight bias we could say those were the best time to invest. But is there really any quantitative method?
200 day moving average is something that is widely used by many investors to check for long term trend. Where investors consider if stocks trades above 200 DMA, its in bullish phase and if it trades below 200 DMA its in bearish phase.
We shall run an analysis to find out of Nifty 50 stocks, how many number of stocks trades above 200 day moving average, higher the number, stronger the market. we need correct data, we cannot test it with current Nifty 50 stocks,
we need list of Nifty 50 stocks that are part of index historically, so when we run for Jan 2008, stocks like RPL, RNRL, UNITECH were part of Nifty 50, so it is essential to test it with correct datasets.
Once we get all the list from 2008 to 2020, we need to find the count for each month, i.e. list of stocks trading above 200 day moving average for each month and plot the graph.
Year 2008 Oct-Dec period, no of stocks trading above 200 DMA was very less, which denotes the extreme fear period, again in 2011, no of stocks that trades above 200 DMA in Nifty 50 were less than 15,
in 2016 no of stocks that trades above 200 DMA in Nifty 50 stocks were less than 20,
and in the year 2020, its less than 10 stocks, if you compare the above data with below Nifty chart, you can easily conclude that those extreme panic period were the times market bottomed out.
Earlier in April when Corona pandemic was extremely high, I wrote an article stating market has bottomed out (https://t.co/fPKJhzvHJl )and exactly within 6 months we are now trading at all time high.
Instead of applying 200 dma on index , no of stocks trading above 200 day moving average can be used as a good quantitative measure to make long term investing decision. Because 80% of Index movement comes from less than 20% of Nifty stocks. Blog details https://t.co/eZz5HznXva

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Most beginners when building a trading strategy simply use current info and test with it, they don't know How to Get Historical Stock Futures lot size, list of stocks that are part of index like Nifty 50, Nifty 500 historically, I will share all such info in this thread

Please note that there is no way to get the historical lot size of stocks futures, NSE don't publish it directly, so we need to do some calculated steps to get that data. Download Market Activity report
https://t.co/HKLkSVtXEI


The zip file contains multiple files, open the second file.


The file will contain stock symbol, expiry date, OHLC data, along with that you get traded quantity and No of contracts traded, using this data we can calculate the lot size of every stock symbol. Simply divide Traded QTY / NO of contracts gives you the lot size.


So to get the historical stock futures data, all you need to do is change the date in the below link

https://t.co/xIBXsPpIVt For an example, to get the historical stock futures lot size data for Sep 2016, use https://t.co/Criu7S3Fi5
If you are someone who spends more time on analyzing markets during trading, then this for you. Certain traders will create their own bullish or bearish view in their mind but seek confirmation for their trades which is called as confirmation bias. #tradingpsychology 1/15


We do not like people or information that contradicts our thoughts. We like them when they confirm what we think. Hence, we tend to place more weight on information that confirms our trade position. Example- You think market is bullish & wanted to go on a long position,

Next a new bullish bar prints on the chart. You would think "Yes, my bullish proposition is still valid" (even though this bullish bar is smaller range)

A bearish bar prints. But you think "this bar lacks momentum" (because you already have firm belief that market is bullish)

One more bearish bar follows, pushing against a support level. But you would think "the support level is holding" Bullishness confirmed. Buy more! (even though this bar closed below the support level with clear momentum.)

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These past few days I've been experimenting with something new that I want to use by myself.

Interestingly, this thread below has been written by that.

Let me show you how it looks like. 👇🏻


When you see localhost up there, you should know that it's truly an experiment! 😀


It's a dead-simple thread writer that will post a series of tweets a.k.a tweetstorm. ⚡️

I've been personally wanting it myself since few months ago, but neglected it intentionally to make sure it's something that I genuinely need.

So why is that important for me? 🙂

I've been a believer of a story. I tell stories all the time, whether it's in the real world or online like this. Our society has moved by that.

If you're interested by stories that move us, read Sapiens!

One of the stories that I've told was from the launch of Poster.

It's been launched multiple times this year, and Twitter has been my go-to place to tell the world about that.

Here comes my frustration.. 😤