BC TRADING
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

The Baltimore Stockbroker Parable

How one stockbroker managed to achieve a 100% success rate in predicting stock movements

/THREAD/

 1/ One day you receive an unsolicited newsletter from a stockbroker in Baltimore.

It contains a tip that a certain stock will soon rise sharply.

A week passes, and as he predicted, the stock goes up.
2/ The next week, you get another newsletter from the stockbroker, this time with a tip about a stock that will fall.

And next week, the stock craters.
3/ Ten weeks go by, and each week you receive a tip about a stock that will go up or down.

Every time the prediction comes true.
4/ On the 11th week, you get a solicitation to invest your money with the Baltimore stockbroker for a hefty commission, justified by his successful predictions.

That sounds like a great deal, right?
5/ This stockbroker seems to know what he is doing.

It is incredibly unlikely that a complete buffoon with no special knowledge would have gotten 10 correct stock predictions in a row.
6/ In fact, you grab a pen and paper and compute the probability of him getting 10 correct predictions in a row.

For a 50-50 chance of being right or wrong, and 10 picks, the calculation is (1/2) in the power of 10.

This comes down to 1/1024, less than 0.1%.
7/ This is so minuscule, that you think that this guy can't be so lucky and he must be the real deal.

But things look different from the stockbroker's side.
8/ In the 1st week, you weren't the only one who received the newsletter.

He sent out 10,240, half with the prediction the stock will rise and half with the opposite prediction.

The 5,120 who received the incorrect prediction never heard from him again.
9/ This continues every week.

The recipients that got the correct prediction, receive another newsletter.

Half the recipients get the "correct" prediction and half of them the "incorrect".
10/ After 10 weeks, there are 10 "lucky" people who received 10 correct predictions in a row.

Ten people who think the stockbroker from Baltimore is an investing genius.

Ten people from whom he expects to collect hefty fees.
11/ The closest this parable came to reality, was in a 2008 reality TV show.

A British magician, Derren Brown, pulled off a similar stunt, mailing various horse-racing picks to thousands of people, eventually convincing one that he had created a foolproof prediction system.
12/ However, this parable is alive and well in the financial industry.

When an investment firm launches a mutual fund, they often maintain it in-house before they open it to the public.
13/ This practice is called incubation.

Typically, these firms incubate dozens of funds at the same time, experimenting with different strategies and allocations.
14/ The funds that show great returns are quickly made available to the public, with detailed documentation of their performance.

The ones that fail, are thrown into the trash can, and the public never notices they even existed.
15/ However, once the public starts investing in these successful mutual funds, they do not maintain their excellent performance.

Instead, they offer the same mediocre returns as all the other mutual funds in the market.
16/ So how do all these affect your investment decisions?

It means you would be better off resisting the temptation of the hot new funds with the excellent track record and incredible returns over the past couple of years.
17/ Instead, follow the unsexy financial planning advice.

Stop looking for the stock magician with the golden touch and put your money in a low-cost index fund and forget about it.

https://t.co/l9sb5X2z2F
18/ When you put your life savings into the new hot fund with the eye-popping returns, you are like the person who received the newsletter from the Baltimore stockbroker.

You have been lured by the impressive results, but you don't know how many chances they had to get them.
19/ The same applies to all the internet gurus, who tell you how good they are because they suggested buying $AMZN 15 years ago.

But they never tell you how many predictions they have made.

/END/
If you liked this thread click below and retweet the first tweet, and follow to stay updated.

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For more educational threads on financial independence and investing for beginners see below for a collection of threads 👇👇👇

https://t.co/6o3A2IQCMs

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The Mother of All Squeezes

How Volkswagen went from being on the brink of bankruptcy to the most valuable company in the world in two days

/THREAD/


1/ At the peak of the 2008 financial crisis, Volkswagen was considered a very likely candidate for bankruptcy.

Heavily indebted and already financially struggling before 2008, with car sales expected to plummet due to the ongoing global crisis.


2/ With GM and Chrysler filing for bankruptcy in 2009, shorting the VW stock would seem a safe bet.

If you are not familiar with stock shorts and short squeezes check my thread


3/ On October 26, 2008, Porsche announced it had increased its stake at VW from 30% to 74%.

This was a surprise to many who were led to believe that Porsche wasn't planning a takeover of VW, based on the company's announcements.


4/ Before the announcement, the short interest was approximately 13% of the outstanding shares, a number considered relatively low.

Porsche had a 30% stake, the Lower Saxony government fund held 20% of the shares, and another 5% was held by index funds.
BUSINESS
Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8
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Companies to AVOID

/THREAD/

Some tips by Peter Lynch, one of the most successful investors of all time, on which companies to avoid investing in


1. Hottest stock in the hottest industry, with nothing but hope and thin air to support them (MJ stocks in 2017, internet stocks in 2000, electric vehicles in 2020)

Deteriorating balance sheet.

When analysts predict double-digit growth forever, the industry goes into decline.

2. Product/service, not protected by patent or niche, easy to be replicated by competitors, especially in a high-growth industry.

3. The "Next Something"

Everyone wants the next $TSLA, $AMZN, $GOOG

Most likely you won't find a company to replicate their business with that success.

4. Diversification = companies wasting capital on foolish acquisitions, in new sectors they do not understand, and in companies that are overvalued.
TRADING , INVEST
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Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8
Kostas 👨‍💼 📈 💸...
@itsKostasWithK
This year I started writing daily on Twitter about finance and investing and gained more than 500 followers in 2 weeks

Here are the main things I learned on Twitter growth

1. Brand
2. Content
3. Engagement
4. Networking
5. Tools

/THREAD/

1. Brand
You need to find a niche you are interested in and focus on it
E.g. finance, fashion, travel, etc.

Adjust your profile by adding a profile picture and banner that will show someone what your profile is about and why they should follow you.

Add a linktree that will have all the links for your blog, website, newsletter, etc.

2. Content
Don't wait to gain followers before posting. Nobody will follow you if they see an empty feed.

Start posting daily focusing more on single tweets or threads that provide insights on a topic people in your niche might be interested in.

At first, it will feel like talking to a mirror.

Have a pinned tweet, which will be your best one that will catch the attention of someone visiting your profile.
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The British Railway Mania

How a disruptive technology created the biggest speculative bubble in the history of England

/THREAD/


1/ Railways were the most disruptive technology of the 19th century, known as the "railway age", transforming England from an agricultural to an industrialized nation.

2/ The development of railway infrastructure and locomotives started at the end of the 18th century but experienced immense growth after 1830.


3/ Hundreds of railway related bills were passed every year with proposed rails totaling 10,000 miles, a third of which was never built due to poor financial planning, competition, or fraud.

4/ In the mid-1840s, the Bank of England cut interest rates rendering government bonds unattractive, and investors more willing to rush in the railway investments.
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Tulips, the #Bitcoin of the 17th century

How a pandemic, FOMO, and speculation made a flower worth the same as a mansion

/THREAD/


1/ During the beginning of the 1630s in the Netherlands, tulips were difficult to cultivate and preserve.

This made them a luxury good reserved for the rich and affluent of the upper class living in mansions with big gardens.


2/ The tulip market was not organized nor regulated, as other trades, which made it easy for professional growers to enter it.
Due to the international trade expansion, the growers starting cultivating rare varieties, to achieve higher prices.

3/ The biggest change occurred when florists used tulip bulbs as speculative assets.

The market expansion led to forward bulb-purchase contracts, thus enabling trading during the entire year, and not just during the summer months when tulips bloom.


4/ Easy loans and credit for forward contract purchases led many to enter the market since not much capital was required.

People from the lower economic class (maids, servants, craftsmen) could not resist the temptation for some quick profits and entered the speculative market.
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1/

Get a cup of coffee.

In this thread, I'll help you understand Geometric Expectations.


2/

Imagine we have an investment opportunity.

If the investment goes well, we get to double our money.

But if it goes badly, we'll end up losing three fourths of it.

There's a 50/50 chance of either outcome.

The question: is this a good bet or not?

3/

A simple way to approach this question is to calculate the bet's "expectation".

For every $1 we bet, there are 2 possibilities:

1. The lucky case, where we double our money and end up with $2, and

2. The unlucky case, where we lose (3/4)'th to end up with just $0.25.

4/

Each of these outcomes is equally likely.

So, on *average*, every $1 we put in turns into ($2 + $0.25)/2 = $1.125.

This is a *positive* 12.5% return.

Such bets are called *positive expectation* bets. On average, we expect to *make* (rather than *lose*) money on them.

5/

Suppose we could take many turns betting at these odds.

In any one turn, we could of course lose money.

But because our bet has positive expectation, *over time* we expect to make money.
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A thread on SCALING IN - OUT METHOD -


What is scaling in - out?

1. Scaling in is adding on to the positions when they move in our favor (Pyramiding).

2. Scaling - out is exiting the portion of the position when the trade moves in our favor.

I have explained about pyramiding in previous tweets.

// Why use scaling out instead of exiting all position at once ?

When you are using ALL - out method where you exit positions at once, mostly you use wider Trail SL as you want to capture big moves and exit all when trail sl hits.

The problem with this method is that either you make too big or many times your medium size winners turns out to become Scratch trades.

So, when we use the scaling out method, we are trying to capture most of our medium size trades , so that they do not turn into scratch trades.

// How to use scaling out method -

Say we have to got a signal to enter in a trade, and we have to buy 1200 qty according to our Position sizing.

So, we have to divide this 1200 qty into parts, how much? It depends on you.

We can divide into 3 parts, each part 400 qty.
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Emperor\U0001f451
Emperor👑
@EmperorBTC
Crypto Day-Trading Secret Strategy.

SIMPLE. HIGH PROFIT. NO NONSENSE.

One of the best strategies for Scalping crypto.

Share it to help all beginners.

(A THREAD)🚀🚀


We will use three basic indicators.

1. Pivot Points
2. Stoch RSI
3. VWAP

Note- This strategy will have a MUCH higher probability of success if basic Price action, volume and Candlestick pattern is kept in mind.

USE THE STRATEGY:

I will introduce the tools and then explain the strategy.

I Will talk about the calculations to arrive at the indicators separately.

IMPORTANT- Don't use the indicators alone.
Eg. Stoch RSI has less than 26% hit rate so you can't use it alone to trade.

Tool 1- Pivot Points:

They are reversal points based the historical prices.
Go to the indicators tab and type 'Pivot point standard'

The settings to be used have been disclosed in the pic below.

Note- You can choose your own settings but I have disclosed the ones I use.


This is what they will Look like.

Ignore All notations and just remember.
ALL the lines are Support or Resistance lines
(Lines of Interest)

It doesn't matter if it's been denoted as P,R or S.

We will learn how to use them below, practically.
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How to save tax when income is above 50 lakhs?

Here are 9 benefits of trading in a corporate account: 🧵

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

1. Make a Pvt Ltd Company.

Form a company with family members and trade under it. The family members should be directors of the company. Will explain why later.

Why form a company?
You will only need to pay 25% flat tax. Individuals have to pay 30% tax above 10 lakh profits.

2. Surcharge Benefits:

You will be charged a lower surcharge in a corporate account.

Check the picture below:


Total Tax Outlay:

The total tax outlay for individuals is 30% plus surcharge. If you really earn a lot (10 cr +) then you will be paying 42% tax.

Whereas in a company you'll be paying a maximum of 28% tax.

This is how rich people save a lot of their money by paying low taxes.

3. Expenses can be deducted.

All expenses can be deducted from a company account.

Companies:
1. First make a profit.
2. then deduct the expenses
3. & Pay tax on the remaining income

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Option Trading is very difficult to master as there are so many things to understand.

Here is a master thread related that will help a beginner to understand about Options Trading.

A complete course worth Rs 50K for free.

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In this thread, all the basic option trading strategies are being


3/ What are the things that you should look at before taking any Option


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Even a beginner can start trading in option selling with capital as low as Rs 1 Lakh.

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After the collapse of the Ajuuran Abgaal nomads from the interior had started moving to take over the strategic port town of Mogadishu which was then under the muzzafar dynasty. By the 1600s Abgaal warriors had captured the city and set up their base in shingaani.


Mogadishu at the time was a large and well known port town. The Abgaal clan taking over control allowed them to obtain political power and world wide recognition.


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One thing that makes this #Khashoggi story difficult to assess when it comes to who's responsible is that there are different factions within Saudi Arabia constantly jockeying for power. It's not one monolithic thing.

Bin Salman heads only one faction.

Mohammad Bin Salman [MbS] not only has to deal with states in the region that want to thwart his plans for Saudi Arabia [SA} & the Middle East [ME] such as Iran, Turkey, Syria, Russia, Quatar...he also has people inside SA itself that don't like his reforms or agenda.

So when the narrative gets presented that "The only way Khashoggi could end up dead is on the direct orders of MbS" you might want to keep this in mind.

There are SEVERAL ways Khashoggi could end up meeting his demise at the hands of Saudis not working on the orders of MbS.

Powerful factions within SA, several of whom do not like the Crown Prince's reforms or the fact he was promoted to his current position ahead of others in the royal family, could have done this in the hopes of pinning it on MbS.

Too many false/fake news stories came out of Turkey in the past week to say anything further. This latest news comes just after it was reported Pompeo heard an audio of the killing that was quickly walked back in less than a day.

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1/ So here is a thread on how I turned $32,000 into $1.2m and back to pretty much zero (once taxes are paid).

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3/ By March I think I had around $300k and $500k by the summer. I used to take 25% out but towards the end of the summer I got greedy and put it all back in and by December it was $1.2m.

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Few Important Chart ink Scanners which can help you to find Setups and boost up your Trading Account : 🧵

Do Retweet If you If it Useful

1. Momentum Stocks

This Scanner can be helpful for Short term Swing Trades . you can easily find Stocks which are in Momentum.

Stocks which are up by 20 % in 5 Days
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2. Volume Spike

We always Look for Price and Volume Confirmation for Breakout Trading. This scanner will help you to find the Stocks Which has given a move with Good Volume . You can keep this Stock in Radar and catch the Next move in them :

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I am reading through reams of late-1920s communist poetry and easily my favourite title so far is: "To a Lady who Rejected a Poem about Spring as a Petit-Bourgeois Deviation"

The last lines:
"So here's my hat into the air,
Three cheers for your amazing hair,
For coal mines, and for turbines, too,
For steel, the Comintern and you!"

A not exactly graceful (though possibly satirical) title: "Lines Disassociating Myself from Yessenin and Supporting the Otherwise Unfounded Legend that I am a Foremost Proletarian Writer"

An excerpt:
"Goodbye verses of Yessenin
Goodbye literary slop-
You are not the line of Lenin
You are not the line of WAPP

Never shall I moan a
simple lyric from the heart
I'll devote my new corona
to the proletarian art"

The poet was Joseph Freeman, who published much of his revolutionary verse in the New Masses, a stylish journal of the interwar American literary Left.
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