It contains a tip that a certain stock will soon rise sharply.
A week passes, and as he predicted, the stock goes up.
The Baltimore Stockbroker Parable
How one stockbroker managed to achieve a 100% success rate in predicting stock movements
/THREAD/
It contains a tip that a certain stock will soon rise sharply.
A week passes, and as he predicted, the stock goes up.
And next week, the stock craters.
Every time the prediction comes true.
That sounds like a great deal, right?
It is incredibly unlikely that a complete buffoon with no special knowledge would have gotten 10 correct stock predictions in a row.
For a 50-50 chance of being right or wrong, and 10 picks, the calculation is (1/2) in the power of 10.
This comes down to 1/1024, less than 0.1%.
But things look different from the stockbroker's side.
He sent out 10,240, half with the prediction the stock will rise and half with the opposite prediction.
The 5,120 who received the incorrect prediction never heard from him again.
The recipients that got the correct prediction, receive another newsletter.
Half the recipients get the "correct" prediction and half of them the "incorrect".
Ten people who think the stockbroker from Baltimore is an investing genius.
Ten people from whom he expects to collect hefty fees.
A British magician, Derren Brown, pulled off a similar stunt, mailing various horse-racing picks to thousands of people, eventually convincing one that he had created a foolproof prediction system.
When an investment firm launches a mutual fund, they often maintain it in-house before they open it to the public.
Typically, these firms incubate dozens of funds at the same time, experimenting with different strategies and allocations.
The ones that fail, are thrown into the trash can, and the public never notices they even existed.
Instead, they offer the same mediocre returns as all the other mutual funds in the market.
It means you would be better off resisting the temptation of the hot new funds with the excellent track record and incredible returns over the past couple of years.
Stop looking for the stock magician with the golden touch and put your money in a low-cost index fund and forget about it.
https://t.co/l9sb5X2z2F
Jack Bogle, the Father of Indexing
— Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8 (@itsKostasWithK) January 8, 2021
How John "Jack" Bogle's creation impacted investors more than Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, and Warren Buffett combined
/THREAD/ pic.twitter.com/4wPi8x3cXn
You have been lured by the impressive results, but you don't know how many chances they had to get them.
But they never tell you how many predictions they have made.
/END/
https://t.co/a0k6jzZ6wg
The Baltimore Stockbroker Parable
— Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8 (@itsKostasWithK) January 23, 2021
How one stockbroker managed to achieve a 100% success rate in predicting stock movements
/THREAD/ pic.twitter.com/xCRL6CfxBu
https://t.co/6o3A2IQCMs
List of Educational Threads on Financial Independence and Investing for Beginners#FinancialIndependence #financialeducation #financialfreedom #investing
— Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8 (@itsKostasWithK) January 3, 2021
1/ Financial Freedomhttps://t.co/8j5KG5ioFK
More from Kostas ๐จโ๐ผ ๐ ๐ธ
If you want to become financially independent and don't know where to start, here is a thread that will help you get started
/THREAD/
1. Review your expenses and make a budget
It will help you see where you overspend, make a plan to save, pay down debt and start
2. Set your investing and retirement goals
How much do you need to support yourself in retirement and when do you want to
3. The earlier you start investing, the better.
Here's why and how time and compounding can become your
4. Invest in an index fund
It's easy, safe, cheap, and the best choice for a beginner in investing, with not much time for
/THREAD/
1. Review your expenses and make a budget
It will help you see where you overspend, make a plan to save, pay down debt and start
Budgeting, the 50-30-20 rule, and the envelope method
— Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8 (@itsKostasWithK) January 6, 2021
Your first step towards financial independence
/THREAD/ pic.twitter.com/Tmuc3Itca5
2. Set your investing and retirement goals
How much do you need to support yourself in retirement and when do you want to
The most important number for your retirement: The 4% rule
— Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8 (@itsKostasWithK) January 7, 2021
What Is the Four Percent Rule?
/THREAD/ pic.twitter.com/8n1R1UZI5c
3. The earlier you start investing, the better.
Here's why and how time and compounding can become your
The Miracle of Compound Interest and the Rule of 72
— Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8 (@itsKostasWithK) January 2, 2021
//THREAD// pic.twitter.com/AOqd3kL6cn
4. Invest in an index fund
It's easy, safe, cheap, and the best choice for a beginner in investing, with not much time for
Jack Bogle, the Father of Indexing
— Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8 (@itsKostasWithK) January 8, 2021
How John "Jack" Bogle's creation impacted investors more than Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, and Warren Buffett combined
/THREAD/ pic.twitter.com/4wPi8x3cXn
More from Trading
๐ก๐ถ๐ณ๐๐-๐๐ฎ๐ป๐ธ๐ป๐ถ๐ณ๐๐ ๐ข๐ฝ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ด๐
Complete Backtest and Indicator link
๐งต A Thread ๐งต
๐ฆ๐ฒ๐๐๐ฝ:
๐ธ Monthly Option Buying
๐ธ 50 ema on 3 min timeframe
๐ธ Supertrend 10 , 3
๐ธ Chart : Banknifty , Nifty Futures as we backtested on futures
๐ธ Entry 9:20 to 3:00
๐ธ Max 3 Entries per day
๐ธ Premium nearest to 200 Rs only
[2/18]
Why Monthly Option buying ?
๐ธ Less theta decay compared to weekly options
๐ธ Less Volatility
๐ธ Supertrend and MA Settings
[3/18]
๐ธ Indicator Link
๐ธ Click on the below ๐ญ๐ช๐ฏ๐ฌ -> ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ต๐ฐ ๐๐ข๐ท๐ฐ๐ถ๐ณ๐ช๐ต๐ฆ๐ด -> ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ณ๐ต from favourites and start using it !
๐ธ https://t.co/zVXavqLBto
[4/18]
๐๐ป๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ฆ๐ฒ๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด๐ :
๐ธ Max 6 Trades per day ( Both CE and PE buy)
๐ธ Timings 9:20 am to 3:00 pm
๐ธ Supertrend : 10,3
๐ธ Moving Average 50 ema
[5/18]
Complete Backtest and Indicator link
๐งต A Thread ๐งต
๐ฆ๐ฒ๐๐๐ฝ:
๐ธ Monthly Option Buying
๐ธ 50 ema on 3 min timeframe
๐ธ Supertrend 10 , 3
๐ธ Chart : Banknifty , Nifty Futures as we backtested on futures
๐ธ Entry 9:20 to 3:00
๐ธ Max 3 Entries per day
๐ธ Premium nearest to 200 Rs only
[2/18]
Why Monthly Option buying ?
๐ธ Less theta decay compared to weekly options
๐ธ Less Volatility
๐ธ Supertrend and MA Settings
[3/18]
๐ธ Indicator Link
๐ธ Click on the below ๐ญ๐ช๐ฏ๐ฌ -> ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ต๐ฐ ๐๐ข๐ท๐ฐ๐ถ๐ณ๐ช๐ต๐ฆ๐ด -> ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ณ๐ต from favourites and start using it !
๐ธ https://t.co/zVXavqLBto
[4/18]
๐๐ป๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ฆ๐ฒ๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด๐ :
๐ธ Max 6 Trades per day ( Both CE and PE buy)
๐ธ Timings 9:20 am to 3:00 pm
๐ธ Supertrend : 10,3
๐ธ Moving Average 50 ema
[5/18]
TradingView isn't just charts
It's much more powerful than you think
9 things TradingView can do, you'll wish you knew yesterday: ๐งต
Collaborated with @niki_poojary
1/ Free Multi Timeframe Analysis
Step 1. Download Vivaldi Browser
Step 2. Login to trading view
Step 3. Open bank nifty chart in 4 separate windows
Step 4. Click on the first tab and shift + click by mouse on the last tab.
Step 5. Select "Tile all 4 tabs"
What happens is you get 4 charts joint on one screen.
Refer to the attached picture.
The best part about this is this is absolutely free to do.
Also, do note:
I do not have the paid version of trading view.
2/ Free Multiple Watchlists
Go through this informative thread where @sarosijghosh teaches you how to create multiple free watchlists in the free
3/ Free Segregation into different headers/sectors
You can create multiple sections sector-wise for free.
1. Long tap on any index/stock and click on "Add section above."
2. Secgregate the stocks/indices based on where they belong.
Kinda like how I did in the picture below.
It's much more powerful than you think
9 things TradingView can do, you'll wish you knew yesterday: ๐งต
Collaborated with @niki_poojary
1/ Free Multi Timeframe Analysis
Step 1. Download Vivaldi Browser
Step 2. Login to trading view
Step 3. Open bank nifty chart in 4 separate windows
Step 4. Click on the first tab and shift + click by mouse on the last tab.
Step 5. Select "Tile all 4 tabs"
What happens is you get 4 charts joint on one screen.
Refer to the attached picture.
The best part about this is this is absolutely free to do.
Also, do note:
I do not have the paid version of trading view.
2/ Free Multiple Watchlists
Go through this informative thread where @sarosijghosh teaches you how to create multiple free watchlists in the free
\U0001d5e0\U0001d602\U0001d5f9\U0001d601\U0001d5f6\U0001d5fd\U0001d5f9\U0001d5f2 \U0001d600\U0001d5f2\U0001d5f0\U0001d601\U0001d5fc\U0001d5ff \U0001d604\U0001d5ee\U0001d601\U0001d5f0\U0001d5f5\U0001d5f9\U0001d5f6\U0001d600\U0001d601 \U0001d5fc\U0001d5fb \U0001d5e7\U0001d5ff\U0001d5ee\U0001d5f1\U0001d5f6\U0001d5fb\U0001d5f4\U0001d603\U0001d5f6\U0001d5f2\U0001d604 \U0001d602\U0001d600\U0001d5f6\U0001d5fb\U0001d5f4 \U0001d601\U0001d5f5\U0001d5f2 \U0001d5d9\U0001d5e5\U0001d5d8\U0001d5d8 \U0001d603\U0001d5f2\U0001d5ff\U0001d600\U0001d5f6\U0001d5fc\U0001d5fb!
— Sarosij Ghosh (@sarosijghosh) September 18, 2021
A THREAD \U0001f9f5
Please Like and Re-Tweet. It took a lot of effort to put this together. #StockMarket #TradingView #trading #watchlist #Nifty500 #stockstowatch
3/ Free Segregation into different headers/sectors
You can create multiple sections sector-wise for free.
1. Long tap on any index/stock and click on "Add section above."
2. Secgregate the stocks/indices based on where they belong.
Kinda like how I did in the picture below.
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So the cryptocurrency industry has basically two products, one which is relatively benign and doesn't have product market fit, and one which is malignant and does. The industry has a weird superposition of understanding this fact and (strategically?) not understanding it.
The benign product is sovereign programmable money, which is historically a niche interest of folks with a relatively clustered set of beliefs about the state, the literary merit of Snow Crash, and the utility of gold to the modern economy.
This product has narrow appeal and, accordingly, is worth about as much as everything else on a 486 sitting in someone's basement is worth.
The other product is investment scams, which have approximately the best product market fit of anything produced by humans. In no age, in no country, in no city, at no level of sophistication do people consistently say "Actually I would prefer not to get money for nothing."
This product needs the exchanges like they need oxygen, because the value of it is directly tied to having payment rails to move real currency into the ecosystem and some jurisdictional and regulatory legerdemain to stay one step ahead of the banhammer.
If everyone was holding bitcoin on the old x86 in their parents basement, we would be finding a price bottom. The problem is the risk is all pooled at a few brokerages and a network of rotten exchanges with counter party risk that makes AIG circa 2008 look like a good credit.
— Greg Wester (@gwestr) November 25, 2018
The benign product is sovereign programmable money, which is historically a niche interest of folks with a relatively clustered set of beliefs about the state, the literary merit of Snow Crash, and the utility of gold to the modern economy.
This product has narrow appeal and, accordingly, is worth about as much as everything else on a 486 sitting in someone's basement is worth.
The other product is investment scams, which have approximately the best product market fit of anything produced by humans. In no age, in no country, in no city, at no level of sophistication do people consistently say "Actually I would prefer not to get money for nothing."
This product needs the exchanges like they need oxygen, because the value of it is directly tied to having payment rails to move real currency into the ecosystem and some jurisdictional and regulatory legerdemain to stay one step ahead of the banhammer.