BC FINANCE
Saved by @SteveeRogerr

The British Railway Mania

How a disruptive technology created the biggest speculative bubble in the history of England

/THREAD/

 1/ Railways were the most disruptive technology of the 19th century, known as the "railway age", transforming England from an agricultural to an industrialized nation.
2/ The development of railway infrastructure and locomotives started at the end of the 18th century but experienced immense growth after 1830.
3/ Hundreds of railway related bills were passed every year with proposed rails totaling 10,000 miles, a third of which was never built due to poor financial planning, competition, or fraud.
4/ In the mid-1840s, the Bank of England cut interest rates rendering government bonds unattractive, and investors more willing to rush in the railway investments.
5/ In 1825 the Bubble Act, passed after the South Sea Bubble in 1720, was repealed enabling easier formations of companies and ventures.

*For more on the South Sea Bubble see below
👇👇👇
https://t.co/ggB2vFv9Ha
6/ The lack of regulation, and the media promotion attracted many investors who could purchase shares of railway companies with just a 10% deposit, with many middle-class families investing their entire savings.
7/ The railway network expanded from less than 100 miles in 1830 to 6,000 miles in the late 1840s connecting all the major cities in the country.
8/ The disruptive potential of the railway technology made investors to rush in for investing, with the invested capital exceeding 1/3 of the country's GDP by 1850.
9/ Many entrepreneurs got into financing, constructing, and operating the railway lines gaining immense wealth.

Most notable among them was George Hudson who operated 1/3 of the railway lines.
10/ Shares became extremely volatile due to the mania, peaking in 1845 with the dividend rates exceeding 8%.

In 1845, investors started realizing the financial viability of many projects was not guaranteed and the investments were not as lucrative as they had initially thought.
11/ Along with the rise of interest rates by the Bank of England and the Irish Potato Famine, money started flowing from railway investments back to government bonds.
12/ The sudden lack of interest and outflux of capital led to the bubble bursting in 1845 and the market crashing.

The shares of the railway companies dropped below half of their peak price, with dividend rates slashed to 2%.
13/ Many companies were on the brink of bankruptcy, being eventually bought out by their big competitors at a fraction of their value.
14/ After the bubble burst and mania fizzled, the improper business practices of George Hudson were revealed.

Hudson, also a member of the British parliament, had engaged in bribery, embezzlement, and insider trading.
15/ Hudson's operations were basically a Ponzi scheme using the invested capital by new investors to pay the dividend to the old investors.
16/ The industry rebounded after 1850 but never reached the levels of the 1845 mania, due to the maturity of the industry and the government regulation.

/END/
If you liked this thread click below and retweet the first tweet

https://t.co/oBjT1zycin
For more educational threads on financial independence and investing for beginners see below for a collection of threads and follow me to stay updated 👇👇👇

https://t.co/6o3A2IQCMs

More from Kostas 👨‍💼 📈 💸

Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8
Kostas 👨‍💼 📈 💸...
@itsKostasWithK
This year I started writing daily on Twitter about finance and investing and gained more than 500 followers in 2 weeks

Here are the main things I learned on Twitter growth

1. Brand
2. Content
3. Engagement
4. Networking
5. Tools

/THREAD/

1. Brand
You need to find a niche you are interested in and focus on it
E.g. finance, fashion, travel, etc.

Adjust your profile by adding a profile picture and banner that will show someone what your profile is about and why they should follow you.

Add a linktree that will have all the links for your blog, website, newsletter, etc.

2. Content
Don't wait to gain followers before posting. Nobody will follow you if they see an empty feed.

Start posting daily focusing more on single tweets or threads that provide insights on a topic people in your niche might be interested in.

At first, it will feel like talking to a mirror.

Have a pinned tweet, which will be your best one that will catch the attention of someone visiting your profile.
FINANCE
Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8
Kostas 👨‍💼 📈 💸...
@itsKostasWithK
The Baltimore Stockbroker Parable

How one stockbroker managed to achieve a 100% success rate in predicting stock movements

/THREAD/


1/ One day you receive an unsolicited newsletter from a stockbroker in Baltimore.

It contains a tip that a certain stock will soon rise sharply.

A week passes, and as he predicted, the stock goes up.


2/ The next week, you get another newsletter from the stockbroker, this time with a tip about a stock that will fall.

And next week, the stock craters.


3/ Ten weeks go by, and each week you receive a tip about a stock that will go up or down.

Every time the prediction comes true.


4/ On the 11th week, you get a solicitation to invest your money with the Baltimore stockbroker for a hefty commission, justified by his successful predictions.

That sounds like a great deal, right?
TRADING
Advertisement
Kostas Kosmidis \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8
Kostas Kosmidis 👨‍💼 📈 ...
@itsKostasWithK
Isaac Newton: A brilliant scientist, a terrible investor

How Issac Newton lost $4 million due to the first stock market bubble in history and insider trading

/THREAD/


1/ Sir Isaac Newton is considered one of the most influential scientists of all time and a key figure in the scientific revolution.

He was a mathematician, physicist, astronomer, theologian, and author.

2/ The most prominent part of his work was the formulation of the laws of motion and the law of gravity.

However, his most prominent failure was losing an entire fortune in the first stock market bubble in history, the South Sea Company in 1720.


3/ Newton was usually a cautious investor.

Before 1720 most of his investments were in safe and reliable securities, various government bonds that delivered a regular stream of income, and shares in a few of the larger companies on the exchange, including South Sea Co.

4/ Newton began in 1720 with stocks and bonds worth approximately £32,000 (close to $6-million in current U.S. dollars).
TRADING
Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8
Kostas 👨‍💼 📈 💸...
@itsKostasWithK
Charles Ponzi and the Postal Service

The story of the man who put the 'Ponzi' in 'Ponzi scheme'

/THREAD/


1/ Carlo Pietro Giovanni Guglielmo Tebaldo Ponzi, a.k.a. Charles Ponzi, was an italian swindler and con-artist.

Born in 1882 in Italy, he became notorious for his money-making fraudulent schemes in North America in the 1920s.


2/ He arrived in Boston in late 1903 with $2.50 in his pocket.

After many professional failures, he moved to Montreal in 1907 and started working as a bank teller at Banco Zarossi, where he rose to the position of bank manager.


3/ This is where he first witnessed the bank's scheme, where Zarossi was funding interest payments using deposits from newly opened accounts instead of investment profits.

4/ Ponzi served 3 years in jail for check forgery and returned to the US after his release.

However, he got involved in smuggling illegal immigrants into the country landing in prison for another 2 years, moving back to Boston after that.
HISTORY
Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8
Kostas 👨‍💼 📈 💸...
@itsKostasWithK
Tulips, the #Bitcoin of the 17th century

How a pandemic, FOMO, and speculation made a flower worth the same as a mansion

/THREAD/


1/ During the beginning of the 1630s in the Netherlands, tulips were difficult to cultivate and preserve.

This made them a luxury good reserved for the rich and affluent of the upper class living in mansions with big gardens.


2/ The tulip market was not organized nor regulated, as other trades, which made it easy for professional growers to enter it.
Due to the international trade expansion, the growers starting cultivating rare varieties, to achieve higher prices.

3/ The biggest change occurred when florists used tulip bulbs as speculative assets.

The market expansion led to forward bulb-purchase contracts, thus enabling trading during the entire year, and not just during the summer months when tulips bloom.


4/ Easy loans and credit for forward contract purchases led many to enter the market since not much capital was required.

People from the lower economic class (maids, servants, craftsmen) could not resist the temptation for some quick profits and entered the speculative market.
BITCOIN

More from Finance

Mostly Borrowed Ideas
Mostly Borrowed Ideas
@borrowed_ideas
1/ Thread: $GOOG 4Q'20 Update

For the first time, GOOG segmented its cloud revenues/income separately, and overall revenue was >20% in 4Q which led to +7% after-hours reaction yesterday.

Here are my notes from earnings/press release.

2/ In the last quarter, here is the segment-wise growth:

Search +17.4%
YouTube ads +46.0%
Google Network Members +22.9%
Cloud +46.6%

Cloud more than doubled in the last two years.
Other bets losses $4.5 Bn in 2020 (vs $4.8 Bn in 2019)


3/ Operating margin in Q4 ~28%
FCF margin in Q4 ~30%

One of the big takeaways was the core business was even MORE profitable than most investors thought since cloud had -42.9% operating margin.

$GOOG's search business is a good comp for Fed in terms of "printing" money. JK.

4/ "you can track takeout and delivery orders when you book or order from Google Maps"

"More than 0.5 million channels livestreamed on YouTube for the first time in 2020"

"videos in our new Shorts player are receiving 3.5 billion daily views."

5/ Google Pay app is now used by >150 mn people in 30 countries.

Cloud backlog $30 Bn now (from $19 Bn in Q3)

# of Deals >$250 Mn became >3x

Waymo is providing hundreds of fully AV rides per week

Retail searches >3x YoY

Cloud operating losses flat YoY
FINANCE
Goldstein
Goldstein
@MrGoldstein7
The old conservative versus liberal thing, or the left/right division has been completely obliterated, and sometimes directly reversed. Originally, those on the right were defenders of the status quo, which meant they were fine with the world being run by bankers and aristocrats.
FINANCE
Advertisement
Gurgavin Chandhoke
Gurgavin Chandhoke
@gurgavin
WHY $CCIV CAN TRIPLE SOON.

What is $CCIV ?

CCIV is the fourth SPAC by Michael Klein who already has multiple multi-billion dollar SPAC mergers including $CCC valued at over 19 Billion. CCIV is in TALKS to take @LucidMotors public valuing the merger at over 15 BILLION.


What is LUCID MOTORS?

Lucid Motors is one of the worlds leading EV car "Startups" founded in 2007 in California they were previously known as Atieva. Most of their 1400 employees come from well know car companies such as TESLA and Mazda.

The Lucid motor core team

Peter Rawlinson ( CEO & CTO)

Originally from wales, peter was the Chief Engineer for the TESLA MODEL S. Peter was also the Principal Engineer at @Jaguar Chief Engineer at @lotuscars

Derek Jenkins ( Vice President of Design)

Derek started his journey with 8 years at @Audi working on the Audi A2 & A8 among others. After Audi, he moved to VW where he spent nine years. He is also credited for the design of the CX-5, Mazda6, Mazda3, and the CX-9 among others.

Lucid Air

Lucid Air is the first car by @LucidMotors which is set to release in the summer of this year. Air will have four different variants starting from 69,900 USD which will have up to a 503 MILE RANGE.
FINANCE
Indian Quant \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
Indian Quant 🇮🇳...
@indian_quant
Nano Course On Python For Trading
==========================
Module 3

In this post, I will attempt to teach you how to write an algorithm in python to automatically find support and resistance. We shall use the data we downloaded in module 2.

+

To visualize price action, I have used the daily candlestick chart. To quantify the meaning of support and resistance, I have taken below definitions:
In a series of 5 continuous candles, if the first three candles make increasing high and then 2 decreasing highs, then the

+

high of the third candle is considered resistance. Similarly, if the first 3 candles make lower lows and the next 2 make high lows then the low of the third candle is support.

+


The above explanation is for the sake of quantifying support and resistance at a very basic level. These are called fractals. Now let's get started with the code.

mpl_finance is the new module here. We will use its candlestick_ohlc function.

+


Now, if you remember, you downloaded data for nifty 50 stocks in module 2. We shall use that data. Let's work on ITC data this time.
We will use data from 1 Jan 2021 to 30 June 2021.

+
FINANCE , PYTHON , ALL
Chris Hladczuk
Chris Hladczuk
@chrishlad
I devoured 50 years of Warren Buffett shareholder letters.

The result?

12 timeless principles from the greatest investor in the world.

Here are the golden nuggets🧵

The Orangutan Effect

"If you sit down with an orangutan and carefully explain to it one of your cherished ideas, you may leave behind a puzzled primate, but will exit thinking more clearly yourself."

Teaching others actually teaches yourself.

2022

The Faulty Premise Framework

“A horse that can count to ten is a remarkable horse - not a remarkable mathematician.”

Beware your comparison set.

Are you judging crappy relative performance or absolute results?

1985

Pick the Right Business Boat

The business boat you get into is more important than how effectively you row.

“When a brilliant management team tackles a business with a reputation for poor fundamental economics, the reputation of the business usually stays intact.”

1985

A Rising Tide Doesn't Lift All Bonuses

"Good performance should be rewarded whether Berkshire stock rises or falls.
Average performance should earn no special rewards even if our stock soars."

Judge for individual performance or risk free riding on group success.

1986
FINANCE , BUFFETT

You May Also Like

Nikita Poojary
Nikita Poojary
@niki_poojary
Catch me if you can @Mitesh_Engr

Time for a🧵
Mitesh Sir's EXPIRY Option Selling 101:
• What to look for?
• Strike Selection & Ratios
• SL mgmt
• Avoiding freezes
• Monthy Expiry
• Event days
• How he would have traded last expiry?

In collaboration with @AdityaTodmal


Edward de Bono says intelligence is like a🚗 Automobile

“A powerful car may be driven badly. A less powerful car may be driven well. The skill of the car driver determines how the power of the car is used.”


What @Mitesh_Engr Sir looks at for Expiry Trading:

• Technicals of BNF
• Individual Heavyweight stocks of BNF
• Support/Resistance of BNF on weekly TF
• Also has Superb SL management
• When it comes to adjustments, he is always on toes


How to Select Strikes to Sell?

• You can't sell based on premium
• Follow only trend
• Price action is best to sell on expiry day
• Never wait for the options to go to zero


Using Ratios to Sell:

• If BNF is in a range then strangles
• If breakout/ breakdown from a range then directional
• Selling 70/30 or 80/20 ratios
• 2 examples on how he used ratios
ALL , MITESH PATEL OPTIONS STRAT , MITESH PATEL EXPIRY GUIDE
Suchi Sharma
Suchi Sharma
@Suchi_sharma_
Yantrodharaka Anjaneya Temple, Hampi, Karnataka.

This temple dedicated to pawanputra Hanuman, near the banks of Tungabhadra river was built by dwaita philosopher and rajguru of the Vijayanagar empire, Sri Vyasaraja around +500 years ago.


:It is only in this temple that Hanuman appears in a prayer position. In this image, Bhagwan Hanuman’s crown has been formed by his tail.12 monkeys have been carved around this amulet.


:They represent the 12 days Sri Vyasaraja prayed to Hanuman ji. Each monkey holds the tail of the monkey in front of him but is facing backward. Seed syllables have also been carved around the amulet.


:It is believed that Sri Vyasaraja used to draw a picture of lord Hanuman here on the rocks before offering prayers using charcoal and the sketch disappeared after prayers.This incidence happened for 12 days in a row until he pleaded to bhagwan to appear in front of him.


On the 12th day, Hanuman ji appeared in front of Sri Vyasaraja and blessed him. Hanuman asked Sri Vyasaraja to constrain him in a hexagonal amulet & install him in that place.
ALL
Advertisement
SK
SK
@sk_diary1
Margatha Natarajar murthi - Uthirakosamangai temple near Ramanathapuram,TN
#ArudraDarisanam
Unique Natarajar made of emerlad is abt 6 feet tall.
It is always covered with sandal paste.Only on Thriuvadhirai Star in month Margazhi-Nataraja can be worshipped without sandal paste.


After removing the sandal paste,day long rituals & various abhishekam will be https://t.co/e1Ye8DrNWb day Maragatha Nataraja sannandhi will be closed after anointing the murthi with fresh sandal paste.Maragatha Natarajar is covered with sandal paste throughout the year


as Emerald has scientific property of its molecules getting disturbed when exposed to light/water/sound.This is an ancient Shiva temple considered to be 3000 years old -believed to be where Bhagwan Shiva gave Veda gyaana to Parvati Devi.This temple has some stunning sculptures.
ALL
Vibhu Vashisth
Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet
शमशान में जब महर्षि दधीचि के मांसपिंड का दाह संस्कार हो रहा था तो उनकी पत्नी अपने पति का वियोग सहन नहीं कर पायी और पास में ही स्थित विशाल पीपल वृक्ष के कोटर में अपने तीन वर्ष के बालक को रख के स्वयं चिता पे बैठ कर सती हो गयी ।इस प्रकार ऋषी दधीचि और उनकी पत्नी की मुक्ति हो गयी।


परन्तु पीपल के कोटर में रखा बालक भूख प्यास से तड़पने लगा। जब कुछ नहीं मिला तो वो कोटर में पड़े पीपल के गोदों (फल) को खाकर बड़ा होने लगा। कालान्तर में पीपल के फलों और पत्तों को खाकर बालक का जीवन किसी प्रकार सुरक्षित रहा।

एक दिन देवर्षि नारद वहां से गुजर रहे थे ।नारद ने पीपल के कोटर में बालक को देख कर उसका परिचय मांगा -
नारद बोले - बालक तुम कौन हो?
बालक - यही तो मैं भी जानना चहता हूँ ।
नारद - तुम्हारे जनक कौन हैं?
बालक - यही तो मैं भी जानना चाहता हूँ ।

तब नारद ने आँखें बन्द कर ध्यान लगाया ।


तत्पश्चात आश्चर्यचकित हो कर बालक को बताया कि 'हे बालक! तुम महान दानी महर्षि दधीचि के पुत्र हो । तुम्हारे पिता की अस्थियों का वज्रास्त्र बनाकर ही देवताओं ने असुरों पर विजय पायी थी।तुम्हारे पिता की मृत्यु मात्र 31 वर्ष की वय में ही हो गयी थी'।

बालक - मेरे पिता की अकाल मृत्यु का क्या कारण था?
नारद - तुम्हारे पिता पर शनिदेव की महादशा थी।
बालक - मेरे उपर आयी विपत्ति का कारण क्या था?
नारद - शनिदेव की महादशा।
इतना बताकर देवर्षि नारद ने पीपल के पत्तों और गोदों को खाकर बड़े हुए उस बालक का नाम पिप्पलाद रखा और उसे दीक्षित किया।
ALL
Tashny Sukumaran
Tashny Sukumaran
@tashny
Surendra Ananth @surendraananth, you violated my conditional consent. I assented to unprotected intimate relations with you on the STRICT condition that you tell me if you have relations with anyone else. You failed to do so, and I became ill as a direct consequence.

You refused to reveal your own STI results to me, but claimed to others they were negative and alleged I had multiple other partners, slut-shaming me. You gaslit me saying you had told me about your other partners.

You called up @justice_sisters and @SistersinIslam to tell them I was crazy, jilted. You rebuffed attempts to organise a community mediation so we could address matters. You said I was crazy for speaking to your boss and father in an attempt to keep other women safe.

You have a PATTERN OF BEHAVIOUR of misogyny, harassment and sheer disrespect for women. This was sent to a friend of mine who has never expressed interest in you and has a partner.


You think women are playthings, notches on the bedpost. You, @surendraananth, are no human rights advocate.
LAW