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The British Railway Mania

How a disruptive technology created the biggest speculative bubble in the history of England

/THREAD/

 1/ Railways were the most disruptive technology of the 19th century, known as the "railway age", transforming England from an agricultural to an industrialized nation.
2/ The development of railway infrastructure and locomotives started at the end of the 18th century but experienced immense growth after 1830.
3/ Hundreds of railway related bills were passed every year with proposed rails totaling 10,000 miles, a third of which was never built due to poor financial planning, competition, or fraud.
4/ In the mid-1840s, the Bank of England cut interest rates rendering government bonds unattractive, and investors more willing to rush in the railway investments.
5/ In 1825 the Bubble Act, passed after the South Sea Bubble in 1720, was repealed enabling easier formations of companies and ventures.

*For more on the South Sea Bubble see below
👇👇👇
https://t.co/ggB2vFv9Ha
6/ The lack of regulation, and the media promotion attracted many investors who could purchase shares of railway companies with just a 10% deposit, with many middle-class families investing their entire savings.
7/ The railway network expanded from less than 100 miles in 1830 to 6,000 miles in the late 1840s connecting all the major cities in the country.
8/ The disruptive potential of the railway technology made investors to rush in for investing, with the invested capital exceeding 1/3 of the country's GDP by 1850.
9/ Many entrepreneurs got into financing, constructing, and operating the railway lines gaining immense wealth.

Most notable among them was George Hudson who operated 1/3 of the railway lines.
10/ Shares became extremely volatile due to the mania, peaking in 1845 with the dividend rates exceeding 8%.

In 1845, investors started realizing the financial viability of many projects was not guaranteed and the investments were not as lucrative as they had initially thought.
11/ Along with the rise of interest rates by the Bank of England and the Irish Potato Famine, money started flowing from railway investments back to government bonds.
12/ The sudden lack of interest and outflux of capital led to the bubble bursting in 1845 and the market crashing.

The shares of the railway companies dropped below half of their peak price, with dividend rates slashed to 2%.
13/ Many companies were on the brink of bankruptcy, being eventually bought out by their big competitors at a fraction of their value.
14/ After the bubble burst and mania fizzled, the improper business practices of George Hudson were revealed.

Hudson, also a member of the British parliament, had engaged in bribery, embezzlement, and insider trading.
15/ Hudson's operations were basically a Ponzi scheme using the invested capital by new investors to pay the dividend to the old investors.
16/ The industry rebounded after 1850 but never reached the levels of the 1845 mania, due to the maturity of the industry and the government regulation.

/END/
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More from Kostas 👨‍💼 📈 💸

Kostas on FIRE \U0001f525
Kostas on FIRE 🔥...
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The Mother of All Squeezes

How Volkswagen went from being on the brink of bankruptcy to the most valuable company in the world in two days

/THREAD/


1/ At the peak of the 2008 financial crisis, Volkswagen was considered a very likely candidate for bankruptcy.

Heavily indebted and already financially struggling before 2008, with car sales expected to plummet due to the ongoing global crisis.


2/ With GM and Chrysler filing for bankruptcy in 2009, shorting the VW stock would seem a safe bet.

If you are not familiar with stock shorts and short squeezes check my thread


3/ On October 26, 2008, Porsche announced it had increased its stake at VW from 30% to 74%.

This was a surprise to many who were led to believe that Porsche wasn't planning a takeover of VW, based on the company's announcements.


4/ Before the announcement, the short interest was approximately 13% of the outstanding shares, a number considered relatively low.

Porsche had a 30% stake, the Lower Saxony government fund held 20% of the shares, and another 5% was held by index funds.
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Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8
Kostas 👨‍💼 📈 💸...
@itsKostasWithK
Tulips, the #Bitcoin of the 17th century

How a pandemic, FOMO, and speculation made a flower worth the same as a mansion

/THREAD/


1/ During the beginning of the 1630s in the Netherlands, tulips were difficult to cultivate and preserve.

This made them a luxury good reserved for the rich and affluent of the upper class living in mansions with big gardens.


2/ The tulip market was not organized nor regulated, as other trades, which made it easy for professional growers to enter it.
Due to the international trade expansion, the growers starting cultivating rare varieties, to achieve higher prices.

3/ The biggest change occurred when florists used tulip bulbs as speculative assets.

The market expansion led to forward bulb-purchase contracts, thus enabling trading during the entire year, and not just during the summer months when tulips bloom.


4/ Easy loans and credit for forward contract purchases led many to enter the market since not much capital was required.

People from the lower economic class (maids, servants, craftsmen) could not resist the temptation for some quick profits and entered the speculative market.
BITCOIN
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Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8
Kostas 👨‍💼 📈 💸...
@itsKostasWithK
Companies to AVOID

/THREAD/

Some tips by Peter Lynch, one of the most successful investors of all time, on which companies to avoid investing in


1. Hottest stock in the hottest industry, with nothing but hope and thin air to support them (MJ stocks in 2017, internet stocks in 2000, electric vehicles in 2020)

Deteriorating balance sheet.

When analysts predict double-digit growth forever, the industry goes into decline.

2. Product/service, not protected by patent or niche, easy to be replicated by competitors, especially in a high-growth industry.

3. The "Next Something"

Everyone wants the next $TSLA, $AMZN, $GOOG

Most likely you won't find a company to replicate their business with that success.

4. Diversification = companies wasting capital on foolish acquisitions, in new sectors they do not understand, and in companies that are overvalued.
TRADING , INVEST
Kostas Kosmidis \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8
Kostas Kosmidis 👨‍💼 📈 ...
@itsKostasWithK
Isaac Newton: A brilliant scientist, a terrible investor

How Issac Newton lost $4 million due to the first stock market bubble in history and insider trading

/THREAD/


1/ Sir Isaac Newton is considered one of the most influential scientists of all time and a key figure in the scientific revolution.

He was a mathematician, physicist, astronomer, theologian, and author.

2/ The most prominent part of his work was the formulation of the laws of motion and the law of gravity.

However, his most prominent failure was losing an entire fortune in the first stock market bubble in history, the South Sea Company in 1720.


3/ Newton was usually a cautious investor.

Before 1720 most of his investments were in safe and reliable securities, various government bonds that delivered a regular stream of income, and shares in a few of the larger companies on the exchange, including South Sea Co.

4/ Newton began in 1720 with stocks and bonds worth approximately £32,000 (close to $6-million in current U.S. dollars).
TRADING
Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8
Kostas 👨‍💼 📈 💸...
@itsKostasWithK
This year I started writing daily on Twitter about finance and investing and gained more than 500 followers in 2 weeks

Here are the main things I learned on Twitter growth

1. Brand
2. Content
3. Engagement
4. Networking
5. Tools

/THREAD/

1. Brand
You need to find a niche you are interested in and focus on it
E.g. finance, fashion, travel, etc.

Adjust your profile by adding a profile picture and banner that will show someone what your profile is about and why they should follow you.

Add a linktree that will have all the links for your blog, website, newsletter, etc.

2. Content
Don't wait to gain followers before posting. Nobody will follow you if they see an empty feed.

Start posting daily focusing more on single tweets or threads that provide insights on a topic people in your niche might be interested in.

At first, it will feel like talking to a mirror.

Have a pinned tweet, which will be your best one that will catch the attention of someone visiting your profile.
FINANCE

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To understand Financial Shenanigans & detect accounting manipulations from Annual Reports with checklist
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I reached financial independence and quit my 9-5 job this week at 33 years old to work with my own projects.

A thread with lessons about:

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One day in 2018 when I was in my 9-5 cubicle, I thought to myself while I stared out of the window:

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신념의사나이...
@Belposto_korea
Introducing “Financial Service Centers.” The future of the new Financial Service Industry.

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@BahirwaniKrish
What a privilege it was to host @Gautam__Baid for my first ever Twitter Spaces event along with @dadalife369 and @Finvents.

While we wait for the YouTube recording. Here are 8 of my biggest takeaways from today's session.

#investing

1 - Start by coming up with a portfolio allocation strategy based on your aims and objectives for investing. Include flexibility, tracking and rebalancing as part of your strategy.


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Here are the ones @Gautam__Baid uses.

It is a super-comprehensive list.


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Developing a superior process leads to the repeatability of exceptional outcomes.
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@I_M_Imrann
*GOOD NEWS*                 
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When he opened Kshetra Nada poonthanam was surprised to see his ring on Guruvayurappan, which he gifted to Mangattachan. He understood that it was Guruvayurappan who came as Mangattachan to protect him. This is how Bhagwan treat his devotees.

Hare Krishna
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THREAD: The following tweets are for the purposes of stories that will appear in Sunday Times Daily. The videos and images depicted may be upsetting but are deemed to be in the public interest. This is the story of the Ayanda "Borhey" Mtila as far as we were able to verify it.


On 13 October Mtila as defacto overlord of the Boko Harram gang, allegedly carried out his penultimate cash-in-transit robbery. Sources say he sustained a head wound in a shootout with security guards. Some friends believe he was killed by a fellow

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(THREAD) Pre-election Russia collusion may take down Trump. It's equally possible the Trumps' pre- and post-election collusion with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel will do it—a course of collusion also connected to the Kremlin. I explain here. I hope you'll read on and retweet.


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Has this man been concealing his true identity?

Is this man a supposed 'dead' Seal Team Six soldier?

Witness protection to be kept safe until the right moment when all will be revealed?!

Who ELSE is alive that may have faked their death/gone into witness protection?


Were "golden tickets" inside the envelopes??


Are these "golden tickets" going to lead to their ultimate undoing?

Review crumbs on the board re: 'gold'.


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What The Trans!?
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A thread on how absurd the UK is on transgender issues and how the UK got so transphobic

In 2015 Parliament held an inquiry looking into the state of Transgender equality. Trans people of all stripes outlined many different problems across many, many different areas.

As a result Parliament created a list of recommendations including legal recognition for non binary people, gender recognition act reform, allowing 16 year olds to change their legal gender and reform of NHS gender identity services.

The government under Theresa May ignored everything that was recommended except for Gender recognition act reform. This act came into law in 2003 and gave trans men and women (but not non-binary people) the ability to legally change their gender on their birth certificates.

The process at that time to change your birth certificate under the GRA was to make an application to a panel of cisgender people who would decide if you were sufficiently trans based on your payslips, photo ID and bank statements. You would not get the option to speak to them.

(Also this process cost £140 which is just a tax on being trans)
SOCIETY