Technical Analysis Masterclass- Part 2

'Entering the trade'

Entering a trade without ascertaining a certain things is gambling.

In this masterclass we will learn the pre-requisites to enter a trade.

DON'T ENTER A TRADE WITHOUT DETERMINNG THE FOLLOWING.

Please share.

Master class on HEAD & SHOULDERS pattern for trading Bitcoin.

A thread.

Comprehensive guide to head and shoulders pattern. Made exhaustive enough for Trading purposes.

t’s a frequently occurring, misunderstood and arguably the most useful pattern.

RT would be appreciated.

H&S is probably the first pattern a trader hears of. Here is what we will cover.

Content
1. Nature
2. Identification
3. Occurrence
4. Historical performance
5. Finding entries
6. High probability trades
7. stop losses
8. Miscellaneous
9. Conclusion

Nature

The head and shoulders top is a reversal, bearish pattern, signifying a prospective drop in future prices.

The formation of pattern with a breakdown from its neckline(base) starts a probable bearish move.

Identification.
A prospective H&S pattern should have 3 distinct peaks. The middle peak is the head. This is the highest point of this pattern, sitting in between 2 shorter peaks, i.e. the shoulders. There must be an overlap in prices of these 3 distinct peaks.

The line where these prices overlap is called the neckline. A head and shoulders pattern is easily visible. So, don’t force yourself into finding it. The more times the prices overlap, the stronger is the pattern.

Crypto Day-Trading Secret Strategy.

SIMPLE. HIGH PROFIT. NO NONSENSE.

One of the best strategies for Scalping crypto.

Share it to help all beginners.

(A THREAD)🚀🚀

We will use three basic indicators.

1. Pivot Points
2. Stoch RSI
3. VWAP

Note- This strategy will have a MUCH higher probability of success if basic Price action, volume and Candlestick pattern is kept in mind.

USE THE STRATEGY:

I will introduce the tools and then explain the strategy.

I Will talk about the calculations to arrive at the indicators separately.

IMPORTANT- Don't use the indicators alone.
Eg. Stoch RSI has less than 26% hit rate so you can't use it alone to trade.

Tool 1- Pivot Points:

They are reversal points based the historical prices.
Go to the indicators tab and type 'Pivot point standard'

The settings to be used have been disclosed in the pic below.

Note- You can choose your own settings but I have disclosed the ones I use.

This is what they will Look like.

Ignore All notations and just remember.
ALL the lines are Support or Resistance lines
(Lines of Interest)

It doesn't matter if it's been denoted as P,R or S.

We will learn how to use them below, practically.

MASTER THREAD On Trading Terminology. 💯

If you are confused trading terms, but beginner and advanced, Read this thread.

Read. Share. And RT

Let's Go🚀🚀

The above Explains

1. Basics of Volume Profile. No need to Panics if you don't understand VP, just understand the definition for now.

2. Explains DOM, Deviation and Liquidity Grab.

Please take the time to read the above slowly and carefully.

Deviation explanation here.👇

Cheat Sheet 2.

Explains Basic price patterns and price movements explained.

I am adding a screenshot of the DOM to show how Bid, Ask and Orders look like.

This will explain what everything on an limit order book means.

Cheat Sheet 3.

A few advanced words about trading.

CHEAT-SHEET

Multiple Confirmation short.

A Short Entry that we shared in 2020.

Study it point wise.

1. Bearish Candle type and lowering of volume on Price rise.

2. OBV divergence.

3. Accumulation with Bearish candles and Volume increase on Price decrease.

STUDY IT!

Explanation

1. When price increases with a decreasing volume, it's bearish.

2. OBV, On Balance Volume should be correlated with price.
If price increases without similar increase in OBV, it's bearish.

3. During consolidation, if the volume increases during dumps, it's bearish

Go to 1-4 hour chart.

Use the following EMAs.
13,21,50,180.

Look for a period of consolidation and
13>21>50>180.

Wait for a pull back to 13EMA.
If bounce occurs with volume, Enter.

Exit on bearish cross with 21>13.

1/ How to review quarterly earnings 🧵

A step by step guide using $DXCM as an example

⬇️

2/ The BIG question: Is the thesis on track❓

Other question:

❓Is revenue growing?
❓Are margins stable/expanding?
❓Profits?
❓Balance sheet?
❓New opportunities?
❓New threats?

3/ I open 4 browser tabs

Tab 1 - Current company earnings report / shareholder letter

Tab 2 - Previous company earnings report / shareholder letter (check guidance)

Tab 3 - Analyst estimates

Tab 4 - Call Transcript

4/ Tabs 1 & 2 - Find the current & previous earnings report

I search "Dexcom Investor Relations"

I click on "press release"

Open the newest quarterly earnings report and last quarter

It can also be a shareholder letter/presentation

5/ Tab 3 - Find the quarterly analyst estimates

Open up $DXCM in yahoo finance

The "news" section usually has a link to reports on whether the company beat/met estimates

The "analysis" tab is a good source, but sometimes it updates to the next quarter too quickly

OK, I guess I have a thing to say about the stock market. I have done kind of what these Reddit folks are doing with it, in that I have invested in the stock market when I was not at all rich, using parts of my paycheck that it probably wasn't wise to risk. I don't now. (thread)

But, like, it worked out okay for me. I even shorted some stuff. I didn't coordinate with anyone or whatever, but I don't think on the individual level the stock market is *inherently* malicious. If you're privileged, you're going to be exposed to it (through 401ks, etc.)

And I don't think it's wrong for people to try to make money off of it outside of the 401k/retirement context that's socially normal, *especially* if they're desperate like I was. There *are* strategies that you can use that, while risky, aren't exactly like gambling

Like, gambling is risky in a different way. You are always working with a fairly consistent set of probabilities in gambling, and they're never in your favor (outside of grey area gambling like between friends, where you could hypothetically actually still card count)

Anyway, like, on shorts: I don't think they're evil. I think they're dangerous. For an individual, a short always carries a small risk of individual bankruptcy. There's USUALLY not even a huge upside to them; they're not mystical or magical, they're basically reverse "longs"

As a former professional poker player, I'm very clear about the importance of psychology in investing/trading.

You can have a very solid strategy, but if the mental aspect fails, everything fails, no matter how good you are.

Thread 👇

In this thread I will briefly describe the most important aspects of trading psychology, and give some simple tips to try to improve them.

It's good to always be aware of these aspects, to be able to detect them and act in time.

1) FEAR

This is one of the most important. It can make you get out of a position at the wrong time.

One of the main reasons you can have fear is because you are putting more at risk than you are willing to lose.

Tip: reduce the size of your position until you are comfortable.

2) GREED

Greed can be even worse than fear. It leads you to be overpositioned and to destroy your average entry.

Tip: learn to conform to what you have. Practice gratitude for everything that comes your way. Remember that the most important thing is to stay in the game.

3) TILT

This is well known in poker. There are many reasons why tilt can appear (downswings, injustice, mistakes...)

Tilt takes you away from your perfect strategy. From your A game.

After a losing streak you may think that the market is being unfair to you.

Thread on 'no stop loss', 'adjustments' and 'Risk'
----------------------------------------------------

Wanted to share my thoughts on this topic for a long time but this email sent by someone yday woke me up from slumber

Pls read the email 1st before delving into thread

(1/n)

In the past 1-2 years, there has been a sudden surge of traders who just talk about theta decay, option selling, adjustments and stuff like that..

It is all fair as long as the trader knows what he's doing. But the reality is far from what we see/perceive...

(2/n)

Many of these folks were told that one can 'adjust' their way out of any situation. Any sane options trader know that you cannot come out of any situation by adjustment

One of my friend used to do that(he is famous in options selling desi fintwit) for a long time until..

(3/n)

..he realized that one cannot possibly do that and its gonna burn him one day. He's pretty smart and hence, he put a portfolio level SL & when that hits, he will stop dancing, gets out and calls it a day

So, risk is managed at account level and he is quite clear about it

(4/n)

Unfortunately, 1000s of traders who does option selling(with adjustment) dont have this risk mgmt in place.

They think (i dont know if i had to call it false confidence or ignorance) their skills in 'adjusting' will take them ashore 😅

(5/n)