Breakout-retest-breakout

this pattern is among the high probability setups one can trade.

60-70% of breakouts fail.

If the breakout sustains the reversal pressure and manages to break above the breakout candle high,

there will be travel.

You can then take the trade in either of the two places.

1) When price is pulling back to the point of breakout - take trade at the breakout point.

If it closes inside the pre-breakout zone, get out.

2) When price pulls back, then breaks out of breakout candle high.
(1) is lower probability than (2) but higher probability than just taking the trade when price breaks out first.

It also comes with lower risk.

(2) is the highest probability trade (probably with relatively higher risk).
That said

If the breakout is from a multi-week or multi-month compression zone

do not expect pullbacks to happen immediately.

If they do happen, more often than not, it's a breakout failure.

More from Shravan Venkataraman 🔥🚀💰

Have you ever had 4-5 profitable trades in a row, and you bet all your profits on your next trade feeling "in the zone" only to lose it all?

That's called as "hot-hand fallacy" bias.

I ran a poll recently to outline two classic biases we have as humans.

Thread below 👇👇


1/ *Hot-Hand Fallacy* first had its origin in the game of basketball.

If a player shoots few baskets in a row, people generally predict that the next shot will also be a basket.

This is ignoring the fact that each shot is independent of the ones that came prior.

2/ In this poll, 41.1% people voted that the batsman who hit 4 sixes in a row, will hit a sixer in the 5th ball also.

This is classic hot-hand fallacy.

Each ball's outcome is independent.

The probability is not 50% FYI (number of outcomes is not 2).

These 148 people who voted that the next ball will also be a sixer, did so because they believe that the batsman is on a hot streak, and that his streak would continue.

This is an emotional bias and is usually attached to human performance related events only.

3/ 45.3% (162) people voted that the 5th ball would be a dot ball, meaning the batsman wouldn't score anything.

These people displayed the classic "negative-recency" bias, which is also called the "Gambler's Fallacy".

More from Screeners

Time for a new thread on the possibilities I am looking for.
Do read it completely to understand the stance and the plan.


1. The moving average structure - Many traders just look at the 200 ma test or closing above/below it regardless of its slope. Let's look at all the interactions with 200 ma where price met it for the first time after the trend change but with 200 ma slope against it


One can clearly sense that currently it is one of those scenarios only. I understand that I might get trolled for this, but an unbiased mind suggests that odds are highly against the bulls for making fresh investments.

But markets are good at giving surprises. What should be our stance if price kept on rising? Let's understand that through charts. The concept is still the same. Divergent 200 ma and price move results in 200 ma test atleast once which gives good investment opportunities.


2. Zig-Zag bear market- There are two types of fall in a bear market, the first one is vertical fall which usually ends with ending diagonals (falling wedges) and the second one is zig zag one which usually ends with parabolic down moves.

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Margatha Natarajar murthi - Uthirakosamangai temple near Ramanathapuram,TN
#ArudraDarisanam
Unique Natarajar made of emerlad is abt 6 feet tall.
It is always covered with sandal paste.Only on Thriuvadhirai Star in month Margazhi-Nataraja can be worshipped without sandal paste.


After removing the sandal paste,day long rituals & various abhishekam will be
https://t.co/e1Ye8DrNWb day Maragatha Nataraja sannandhi will be closed after anointing the murthi with fresh sandal paste.Maragatha Natarajar is covered with sandal paste throughout the year


as Emerald has scientific property of its molecules getting disturbed when exposed to light/water/sound.This is an ancient Shiva temple considered to be 3000 years old -believed to be where Bhagwan Shiva gave Veda gyaana to Parvati Devi.This temple has some stunning sculptures.