50 rookie mistakes to avoid as a stock market beginner - a thread.
1. Watching CNBC and acting on the recommendations provided by the "analysts", "experts" and "fund managers" who appear on TV.
Remember, most of them don't even beat the benchmark index on an annual basis.
https://t.co/dj8i4Pzorn
As a beginner with a clean slate, you have 50% odds of winning each trade. But just as you start learning things about the market, each lesson you learn will increase or decrease the odds.
More from Shravan Venkataraman 🔥🚀💰
Have you ever had 4-5 profitable trades in a row, and you bet all your profits on your next trade feeling "in the zone" only to lose it all?
That's called as "hot-hand fallacy" bias.
I ran a poll recently to outline two classic biases we have as humans.
Thread below 👇👇
1/ *Hot-Hand Fallacy* first had its origin in the game of basketball.
If a player shoots few baskets in a row, people generally predict that the next shot will also be a basket.
This is ignoring the fact that each shot is independent of the ones that came prior.
2/ In this poll, 41.1% people voted that the batsman who hit 4 sixes in a row, will hit a sixer in the 5th ball also.
This is classic hot-hand fallacy.
Each ball's outcome is independent.
The probability is not 50% FYI (number of outcomes is not 2).
These 148 people who voted that the next ball will also be a sixer, did so because they believe that the batsman is on a hot streak, and that his streak would continue.
This is an emotional bias and is usually attached to human performance related events only.
3/ 45.3% (162) people voted that the 5th ball would be a dot ball, meaning the batsman wouldn't score anything.
These people displayed the classic "negative-recency" bias, which is also called the "Gambler's Fallacy".
That's called as "hot-hand fallacy" bias.
I ran a poll recently to outline two classic biases we have as humans.
Thread below 👇👇
Let's say you see a cricketer hit four 6's in a row.
— Shravan Venkataraman \U0001f525\U0001f680\U0001f4b0 (@theBuoyantMan) December 30, 2020
If you have to bet on the next ball's outcome, what would you bet on?
1/ *Hot-Hand Fallacy* first had its origin in the game of basketball.
If a player shoots few baskets in a row, people generally predict that the next shot will also be a basket.
This is ignoring the fact that each shot is independent of the ones that came prior.
2/ In this poll, 41.1% people voted that the batsman who hit 4 sixes in a row, will hit a sixer in the 5th ball also.
This is classic hot-hand fallacy.
Each ball's outcome is independent.
The probability is not 50% FYI (number of outcomes is not 2).
These 148 people who voted that the next ball will also be a sixer, did so because they believe that the batsman is on a hot streak, and that his streak would continue.
This is an emotional bias and is usually attached to human performance related events only.
3/ 45.3% (162) people voted that the 5th ball would be a dot ball, meaning the batsman wouldn't score anything.
These people displayed the classic "negative-recency" bias, which is also called the "Gambler's Fallacy".
In today's round up, I have some amazing threads, resources, and plenty of solid advice for business, finance, career from twitter.
Here's the roundup of 17 of the best and the most useful threads, tweets, and resources I found last week. 🧵
1/ How to find spreadsheets on any topic in the
2/ A thread by @wes_kao on making your customers hungry and excited to buy from
3/ Life brings you a lot of afflictions. But if you look around, there's a lot of beauty around you. Most often, drowning in the afflictions, we can't recognise or appreciate the beauty.
@wdmorrisjr wrote a damn good thread on finding beauty around us.
4/ This one is for all the job goers and job seekers.
@SahilBloom who recently hit 500k followers and has several accomplishments to his belt (career wise) wrote this thread on standing out in a hiring
Here's the roundup of 17 of the best and the most useful threads, tweets, and resources I found last week. 🧵
1/ How to find spreadsheets on any topic in the
How to find spreadsheets on any topic in the world:
— Blake Emal (@heyblake) February 13, 2022
1. Go to Google
2. Search site:docs(dot)Google(dot)com/spreadsheets \u201cYOUR TOPIC\u201d
3. Search, scroll, succeed pic.twitter.com/VJsYQKyi0J
2/ A thread by @wes_kao on making your customers hungry and excited to buy from
How to get customers excited, hungry to buy, and ready to say yes:
— Wes Kao \U0001f3db (@wes_kao) February 13, 2022
3/ Life brings you a lot of afflictions. But if you look around, there's a lot of beauty around you. Most often, drowning in the afflictions, we can't recognise or appreciate the beauty.
@wdmorrisjr wrote a damn good thread on finding beauty around us.
You\u2019re not looking for more success, stuff, or sex.
— David Morris (@wdmorrisjr) February 13, 2022
You\u2019re searching for beauty.
Here\u2019s how to find it: \U0001f9f5
4/ This one is for all the job goers and job seekers.
@SahilBloom who recently hit 500k followers and has several accomplishments to his belt (career wise) wrote this thread on standing out in a hiring
10 ways to stand out in a hiring process (that don\u2019t involve your resume):
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) February 13, 2022
More from Trading
1/ Feels like a good time to tell the story of how I went from broke to a millionaire to broke again in 2017/18 again...
Yesterday was brutal for some people...
Losing life-changing money sucks, losing any money sucks...you can chase the market or you can change your strategy.
2/ The original thread is gone but you can read it here.
https://t.co/cLLNs75rB0
tl;dr
- Traded $32k to $1.2m
- Thought I was a genius
- Made poor investments
- Didn't conserve capital
- Peaked at 150 BTC
- Lost nearly all of it
2 weeks from losing my house + no income. Oops.
3/ I am going to assume you are in it for the money rather than the tech. Yeah, you might Tweet about the amazing blockchaining of cross-border payments and oracles yadda yadda...really, you are in it to make money.
If you are really in it for the tech, go and build something.
4/ Okay, so if you want to make money, trading is super hard, you are trading against:
- Better traders than you
- People who can move markets
- Unknown information
And if you are trading with leverage you might blow up your account with the volatility.
5/ If you are not trading, you are investing. Okay, so what are you investing in?
I made the decision that the crypto with the best opportunity of existing in 10 years is #Bitcoin:
- Solves a genuine problem
- The right tech
- A proven track record
Yesterday was brutal for some people...
Losing life-changing money sucks, losing any money sucks...you can chase the market or you can change your strategy.
2/ The original thread is gone but you can read it here.
https://t.co/cLLNs75rB0
tl;dr
- Traded $32k to $1.2m
- Thought I was a genius
- Made poor investments
- Didn't conserve capital
- Peaked at 150 BTC
- Lost nearly all of it
2 weeks from losing my house + no income. Oops.
3/ I am going to assume you are in it for the money rather than the tech. Yeah, you might Tweet about the amazing blockchaining of cross-border payments and oracles yadda yadda...really, you are in it to make money.
If you are really in it for the tech, go and build something.
4/ Okay, so if you want to make money, trading is super hard, you are trading against:
- Better traders than you
- People who can move markets
- Unknown information
And if you are trading with leverage you might blow up your account with the volatility.
5/ If you are not trading, you are investing. Okay, so what are you investing in?
I made the decision that the crypto with the best opportunity of existing in 10 years is #Bitcoin:
- Solves a genuine problem
- The right tech
- A proven track record