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Saved by @Alex1Powell

1/x Vanna is back & ready to turn back on the charm! Overnight the market hit our weeklong target of **3705 and pulled back... We were able to take profits & play for a bit of morning digestion. It’s been a nice +3.5% in a week w/a few extra scalps along the way...But the best

 2/x part has been the gift of Vol compression, which along w/ short Vol profits, has given us significant calendar expansion & dispersion opps, as predicted. I expect this to continue this week as well, as Ivol oversupply should continue to be the dominant force until 12/11.This,
3/x paired w/ the significantly increasing Vanna & Charm flows, will make it hard for any decline until 12/14 to catch meaningful momentum. This said, the narrowing of 20 day RVol as well as the 2 stddev of the 20 day just overhead should cap any rallies, given the dramatically
4/x overextended retail (8-day SMA of P/C equity is the lowest in 20 years) & institutional positioning. This push/pull, should ultimately keep the market fairly pinned this week...Jan 8th call’s on back are incredibly cheap w/ a GA runoff event straddle of only $55, which given
5/x the potential macro-cyclical consequences of the next 2 years of fiscal stimulus seems absurd...& In terms of a more short term trade,Tesla Vol is either too high or 12/18 on back calendar spreads in the SPX are too low, as there’s no premium being priced in for the inclusion
6/x of Tesla on 12/21. Given all these factors, index call calendars continue to likely be the best trade in town! Especially as these LT Ivols continue to approach a floor. The dispersion trade should continue to present opportunities as well w/the prospects of continued Index
7/x IVol compression, but remaining elevated idiosyncratic risk still on the horizon for names...Come 12/14 it’ll be time to briefly consider a long gamma position for some short term potential drama or a coming call squeeze, as the prospects for final resolution of the electoral
8/x college on 12/14, >certainty surrounding a $1 trillion fiscal stimulus bill + govt shutdown resolution, & likely supplemental EOY Fed liquidity @ their 12/16 meeting, FDA approval of PFE/MRNA vaccines on 12/17, NTM qrtrly Dec VIX & SPX expiries, will likely all converge
9/x to light a X-Mas fire under the market into EOY. Hop on board as the market chops w/seasonality-accelerated Charm/Vanna flows supplemented w/Ivol ‘wall of worry’ resolution. We’ll continue to opportunistically ride this market long, scalping tactically at levels. Good luck!🍀

More from Cem Karsan 🥐

Cem Karsan \U0001f950
Cem Karsan 🥐
@jam_croissant
1/x As we’ve been calling for since Nov, today we finally got our 2 ‘Georgia Peaches’🍑 precisely on schedule, as we’ve called for since Aug, & the underlying rotation has confirmed now for months, this matters. This is a historic turning point. It matters not only https://t.co/BFxKGrI1Oo


2/x for this year, but for the economic trajectory of America & likely the macroeconomic regime of the developed world for the coming decade. That said, contrary to popular belief, the market does not move based on news in the short term if the positioning doesn’t allow it to.

3/x & our old friend Gary the 🦍 & his sidekick Vanna are positioned to have this market pinned through 1/11. So, as explained ad nauseam, the election news, though fundamentally important, won’t matter to the index itself in the ST. As predicted, the largest moves from the GA

4/x runoff INITIALLY have come from factor rotation. This should continue to be the case, as the street is oversupplied IVol & the index is pinned. This not only allows for idiosyncratic risk moves in constituents, but it actually FORCES extreme noncorrelation & rotation, as we

5/x have witnessed now for the past 2 days. This Vol compression will be increasingly difficult to break free from until 1/11-1/15, but the window of weakness is coming...soon the final hedges from the ‘election hump’ in Nov will expire with the Jan monthly options. Once the
FOR LATER READ
Cem Karsan \U0001f950
Cem Karsan 🥐
@jam_croissant
1/x ‘Twas the night before Christmas & all through the market not an order was stirring not even for $TGT.
The bonuses were entered into payroll with care,
In hopes that next year would bring a similar fare;
The Bulls were nestled all snug in their beds;

2/x While visions of $TSLA danced in their heads;
& Biden in his Covid mask, & Powell with his still flowing money tap,
Had just settled their brains for a long winter's nap,
When out on the screen there arose such a clatter,
All sprang from their beds to see what was the matter.

3/x Away to their monitors they flew like a flash,
Tore open their Bloombergs & threw up the dash(board).
The S. Claus rally in markets, that all of us know,
Paired w/vaccine reopening, Gave a bid to the market, leaving old prices below,
When what to their wondering👀 did appear?

4/x But a Georgia runoff rushing up to them with complacency, not fear...
With once reliable Vanna flows no longer lively & quick,
They knew in a moment the markets might get quite sick...
Unexpected, 2 Georgia Dem peaches into Congress they came,

5/x Whistling & shouting they called for more fiscal, ‘CARES Too’ its new name:
"Now, Healthcare! Now, Infrastructure! Now Green Energy & Protectionism!
On, Labor rights! on, Minimum Wage! on, Basic Income & Populism!
To middle class households, To the poorest of them all!
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Cem Karsan \U0001f950
Cem Karsan 🥐
@jam_croissant
4/x keepers are calling in the Fed(s) (Fed/sec) for some help getting the animals back under control, so they can feed Gary & get the zoo back under control. As they are likely giving guidance to the brokers to get this under control, as every major retail broker seems to be

5/x restricting trading in the short squeeze names to closing only. The Wheel of Fortune has a taping on Fri & w/out Gary at his best the show will be overrun by the animals. If they can make it to the EOM & keep Gary above the 20 day, calm him down & start feeding him,vanna will

6/x be back & should be able to nurse him back to his usual self & save the show. But there’s a lot of time between now & then & holding the animals @ bay until then seems like a colossal task. Given the pop in Ivols & backwardation of the curve, when vanna gets back she will be

7/x refreshed & in preelection form. The only question is will the animals be so out of control so as to not even be managed by Vanna in her best shape.. This decline fits into a narrative that I’ve had brewing for 4 months, that after a monster run since Sep this is a healthy &

8/x reasonable time to expect the animals to be tired of being caged up & want to blow off some steam. All the biggest wall of worry narratives have been solved 1 by 1. Sentiment & bullish positioning was at all time highs. Hedging activity was low. Breadth was deteriorating. W/
SOCIETY
Cem Karsan \U0001f950
Cem Karsan 🥐
@jam_croissant
1/ Vanna’s a widow maker... waging war with her & Gary is exhausting... we were able to take a textbook short at 3803 and take a profit On half at 3771. We will look to add more in a similar way on tomorrow morning’s likely vanna rally again... looking for exuberance once again


2/ in that 9-10am CST window. The growing chorus of bulls emboldened by Vanna’s continued support the last few days gives me confidence that this opportunity will be there again. W/Gary & Vanna behind them the retail exuberance is rising to a fever pitch. This is exactly what we

3/ want to see. But what happens when their backup is gone?? Who’s going to buy this market at these increasingly higher levels this week. Better yet who’s going to buy it @ lower levels when they are forced to sell next week? Not Vanna. She’ll be @ the beach. It ain’t cool bein’

4/ no Jive Turkey so close to Thanksgiving (OpEx)... Bear Steepening of the yield curve took a breather yesterday & so did the stair steps, which was a bit discouraging, no 2 ways about it. But those pressures are far from over. But... remember w/ Vanna still at 1/2 force SPX was

5/ still just unchanged. W/out EOD vanna flows where would the market have been yesterday? The NDX generals continue to be violently shot 1 by 1 as the rotation continues. The last generals will be BTC & TSLA. Watch them closely... listen closely into the rally. The fear of Covid
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Cem Karsan \U0001f950
Cem Karsan 🥐
@jam_croissant
1/ Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes (Turn and face the strange)... as futures, sit pinned @ an odd elevated morning perch awaiting Janet Yellen’s confirmation hearing & her call for the new admin to ‘act big’...this narrative has markets on high. But the truth is that it’s actually just Gary


2/x behind the curtain, pulling the usual levers. Until Vixperation on Wed, it‘ll be nearly impossible to break the IVol oversupply. This pinning of IVol was so strong on Fri that despite a peak to trough drop of nearly -2% in SPX, fixed strike straddle were down across the board

3/x & particularly decimated in the very front of the curve. IVol particularly in the 30 day range is showing dramatic signs of oversupply relative to the rest of the IVol surface, giving a nod to the Vix strip driving the compression. Even during windows of vanna weakness as we

4/x are in now, this oversupply phenomenon paired w/ a market decline & a slide to higher fixed strike IVols can still lead to a temporary ‘Dead Cat Bounce’ where residual Vanna/charm morning flows lead to brief AM market support. These supporting flows are generally just strong

5/x enough for a countertrend thrust &, unable to meaningfully impact more important macro flows & hence generally should be faded starting around 9-10am CST. That said Gary’ll likely see to it that there is no major technical break below 1 stdev in the 20 days, likely preventing
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More from Trading

Christian Reshoeft
Christian Reshoeft
@reshoftc
(Thread) Why do I own individual stocks?

Thesis:

1. The digitalization of our world is 10% complete.
2. This megatrend will continue for at least another decade.
3. If you enjoy spending your free time on individual stocks, then the potential for outsized returns is possible.

What is my approach?

There are two parts to my portfolio.

- 40% in Vanguard All-World ETF. This is on autopilot w/ regular contributions.
- 60% in what I consider to be high growth stocks

I keep a balance by adding cash. No shuffling around unless it gets too out of whack.

The latter is the interesting part.

I invest in companies that can

1. successfully disrupt an industry with new business models $TTD $SQ $PTON $TDOC

2. further enable the digital transformation with their services and infrastructure $ZS $HUBS $TWLO $CRWD

I intend to hold my shares indefinitely and allow my investments to compound over time.

I don’t believe that it is possible to time the market. Markets go up and down. I hold on knowing that quality businesses tend to bounce back.

The list of reasons to sell is always long.

If you have full conviction in your holdings, then no single piece of “infotainment” should make you change your mind.

Ignore it + people who make predictions about the economy.
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Trader knight
Trader knight
@Traderknight007
“In search of the holy grail”

A thread-


Holy grail- A strategy Which can make money all the time.

After going through two phases of a traders journey, the initial success phase, and Only why do i get loss phase, Traders enter the third phase -

THE SEARCH FOR THE HOLY GRAIL PHASE.

This phase has no limits, It can end in 1 month and it may not end till lifetime.

What exactly is this phase?

When a trader covers all the basics, they know how to lower their losses, they know the power of risk management.

And few of them may even develop their edges and systems over time.

But after some time, they feel that they are doing something wrong and there is more to trading than what they know.


THEN COMES THE HOLY GRAIL PART-

Few of them start to Read more books about trading,finding articles about “How to win 100% of the time” and listening to Youtube videos of few big traders who make big in trading.
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Trader knight
Trader knight
@Traderknight007
Overthinking - The art of creating problems which weren't even there.

Thread on How Over-analysis leads to decision Paralysis-


What is Analysis paralysis?

In simple terms, analysis paralysis is a person's tendency to over-analyze or over-think upon a decision to such an extent that he/she fails to make a choice resulting in a paralyzed state of inaction.


How a retail trader trades-

A trader named Rahul, He know all the basics of markets, He also has made a system which gives signals on nifty, he has also encorporated good Risk management and Position sizing into his system.

One day he gets a signal to buy Nifty at 13500 with stop at 13450, he wanted to take the trade, but he wanted to get sure that the trade he has take should be a winner.

So he says just let me check the RSI if its above this level I will buy , he checks it and it was above his

level, then again he wants to check another indicator named MACD, he wanted to get sure man, Now he do the most intelligent thing to get sure he gets right.

He goes to twitter and ask his twitter Friend Trader knight he ask him that should I buy nifty at 13500,
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Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@KirtanShahCFP
Learn about the STEEL SECTOR in this thread

The demand for steel is generally only 1.2 times the GDP & there is no significant growth in our GDP but still the sector has rallied relentlessly, lets try & understand

Do ‘re-tweet’ & help us educate more investors (1/22)
#Investing

The metal sector is broadly divided into 2,
-Ferrous is a category of metal that has Iron in it, Steel as an example
-Non-Ferrous is a metal, which does not have Iron content, Aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, Zinc etc.
This thread focuses on Ferrous & hence Steel (2/22)

To start, lets understand with how steel is made (its important).
Iron ore is mined, it is then first converted to Iron & Iron is then converted to Steel. There are 3 processes of making steel
-Blast Furnace
-Scrap Metal
-DRIP/Sponge
We will discuss all three (3/22)
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Robot James
Robot James
@therobotjames
In my 20 years of trading I have noticed this cycle play out again and again with traders that "make it":

1. Overconfidently reach for returns
2. Get humbled by the market
3. Simplify + concentrate on clear, high probability edges.

1/n

Nearly everyone starts with a lack of respect for how hard it is to consistently make money trading.

That leads them to pass over high-probability sources of returns in favor of more marginal ideas.

Or they overcomplicate the trading of a good edge.

2/n

Here's an example...

It is 2015. You look at a simple strategy.

You hold an equal dollar exposure to:
- Cap Weighted US Stocks (VTI)
- 20+ Yr US Treasury Bonds (TLT)
- Gold (GLD)

And rebalance each month.

(I've extended back a bit with mutual fund prices.)

3/n


It made money consistently with a few blips.

You'd have 4x your money from 1997 to 2015.

It makes sense. It's harnessing two big sources of risk premia (equity + duration).

It diversifies across 3 macro assets that tend to outperform in different econ environments

4/n

But, naturally, you turn your mind to how you could do better...

And here is where it gets dangerous!

There are good ways to try to "do better", and there are bad ways to try to "do better".

5/n
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Thread: *Post-Liberal reading list*
1/ Religion and the Rise of Capitalism - R.H. Tawney
Unto This Last - John Ruskin
Liberty, Equality, Fraternity - James Fitzjames Stephen
The Great Transformation - Karl Polanyi
The Quest for Community - Robert Nisbet

2/ Family and Civilisation - Carle C. Zimmerman
Science, Politics and Gnosticism - Eric Voegelin
Liberty Before Liberalism - Quentin Skinner
The Great Debate - Yuval Levin
Lincoln and the Politics of Christian Love - Grant Havers
Where We Are - Roger Scruton

3/ The Humane Vision of Wendell Berry - Various
The Unsettling of America - Wendell Berry
Moral Matters - Mark Dooley
Red Tory - Phillip Blond
Blue Labour - Eds. Ian Geary and Adrian Pabst
Together for the Common Good - Eds. Nicholas Sagovsky & Peter McGrail

4/ The Politics of Virtue - John Milbank & Adrian Pabst
Localism in a Mass Age - Eds. Mark T. Mitchell & Jason Peters
The Antimodern Condition - Peter King
The Principle of Duty - David Selbourne
Nostalgia - Anthony Esolen
A Common Human Ground - Claes G. Ryn

5/ The Politics of Gratitude - Mark T. Mitchell
A Time to Build - Yuval Levin
Remaking One Nation - Nick Timothy
Despised - Paul Embery
Defending Identity - Natan Sharansky
Between Kin and Cosmopolis - Nigel Biggar
The Virtue of Nationalism - Yoram Hazony
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Andrew Chen
Andrew Chen
@andrewchen
1/ new essay: What's next for marketplace startups? Reinventing the $10 trillion service economy, that's what. Co-authored with @ljin18 https://t.co/fgKbrHTnH5. A short thread 👇

2/ Marketplace startups have done incredibly well over the first few decades of the internet, reinventing the way we shop for goods, but have been less successful services. It's bc services are complex, subjective, fragmented, and often in real life. Makes it hard

3/ There's been 4 major eras at making the service economy work online. The Listings Era, the unbundled Craiglist era, the Uber for X era, and the Managed Marketplace era


4/ Each era has added more value than the last, and utilized technology innovations, from internet to social / "read/write web" to mobile. The "Unbundling Craigslist" era was particularly epic at generating startup ideas


5/ The problem is, all the low-hanging fruit has been picked off. The techniques that got us to here won't get us to the next phase. So we have to do some pretty different things. That's why "Managed Marketplaces" have been a big deal - hire folks as W-2s, certify quality, etc.
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Bharadwaj
Bharadwaj
@BharadwajSpeaks
Today is Jayanti of Ahilyabai Holkar

She was a widow who became Malwa's greatest queen. Defended our country & personally led armies into battle.Never plundered anyone. Developed Malwa into a prosperous kingdom. Rebuilt temples destroyed by Mughals. Built Dharmashalas at Tirthas


Unfortunately, her memory has been blemished by inaccurate representations in modern popular media.

The serial "Punyashlok Ahilyabai" depicts her as ultra secularist feminazi icon who questions Hindu rituals & Pandits while patronising Sufis.

This is far from historical truth!


Ahilyabai was born on May 31 1725 to Patil Mankoji Shinde.

She was from Dhangar clan(classified as OBC today). While Dhangars were traditionally into herding, they took up arms & held several military /civil roles in various eras of history(especially during Maratha resurgence)


In 1737, when she was 12, Ahilyabai Holkar was married to Khanderao , son of Subedar Malhar Rao Holkar.

By the time she was married, fortunes of Holkar family had already waxed.

Malhar Rao was a Subedar of territory comprising 30 Parganas yielding a revenue of at least 7 Lakh


In 1741, when Ahilyabai was newly married, her father -in-law Malhar Rao Built Indore palace & ordered the kanungo to populate the settlement with a promise of protection to traders.

This began rise of Indore from its background as modest trading town Indrapuri to a great city
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Anu Satheesh \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
Anu Satheesh 🇮🇳...
@AnuSatheesh5
Thiruvizha Mahadeva Kshetram
#Alappuzha 
#Keralatemples 🚩

Thiruvizha Mahadeva Kshetram is located in Cherthala and it is believed that Prathishta of temple was done by Vilwamangalam Swamy. Paramashiva is Swayambhu here and is worshipped as Kalakandha which means who swallowed


Halahala visham to save the world during Samudra mathanam. 

It is a famous temple where people seek the blessings, for curing the Kaivisham. The poison given by someone to destroy a person is made to vomit here. This is removed by making them vomit the poison by a special


medicine.
The medicine for vomiting is made from a plant near temple by Palodathu family. The milk offered to Bhagwan is mixed with the extracts of the plant.

Story says that once this place was a dense forest, and a woman was looking for the presence of a tortoise in the pond


and the tip of her stick hit the bottom and it started bleeding in the pond. 
Frightened, the lady informed every one and after searching in pond people found Swayambhu Lingam inside the pond. Thus Prathishta was done here.

Om Namah Shivaye
Shambo Mahadeva
🙏🕉🙏
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