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Saved by @jay_millerjay

Many of you have seen the famous Westrum Organizational Typology model, so prominently featured in State of DevOps Research, Accelerate, DevOps Handbook, etc.

This model was created Dr. Ron Westrum, a widely-cited sociologist who studied the impact of culture on safety

 Thanks to Dr. @nicolefv, I was able to interview him for an upcoming episode of the Idealcast! 🤯

It was a very heady experience, and while preparing to interview him, I was startled to discover how much work he's done in healthcare, aviation, spaceflight, but also innovation.
@nicolefv I've read 4+ of his papers, so I thought I was familiar with his work. (Here's one paper: https://t.co/7X00O67VgS)

I was startled to learn he has also studied in depth what enables innovation. He wrote a wonderful book "Sidewinder: Creative Missile Development at China Lake"
@nicolefv Dr. Westrum writes about China Lake Research Labs: "its design and structure had one purpose: to foster technical creativity. It did; China Lake operated far outside the normal envelope... Sidewinder & others were "impossible" accomplishments, w/aplomb"

https://t.co/OjY5KSDbNK
@nicolefv I love this book because it describes traits of organizations that routinely create and maintain greatness: US space program (Mercury, Gemini, Apollo), US Naval Reactors, Toyota, Team of Teams, Tesla, the tech giants (Amazon, Google, Netflix, Google)
@nicolefv "Research and development is not a business that can be carefully planned and directed, not if you expect to make progress rapidly and economically." Burton Klein, Economist, 1958.

"What is the underlying science [and theory]?
@nicolefv "What accounts for successful innovation? What role do leadership and organizational design play?" What incredible questions!

"Today Rabinow, professional inventor w/230+ US patents, an advisor to NIST: 'all inventors come up w/many idea; you must know that most are trash."
@nicolefv One aspect Westrum hints at is need for constraints & scarcity. One factor for Sidewinder success is that it was hidden as an official program for years, classified as "fuse research," which could be easily classified.

This prevented expansions in budget, oversight, meddling
@nicolefv Counter-examples at this time were the Falcon (which became Phoenix), and Sparrow, both of which underperformed for years, unable to hit their targets.

Dr. Bill McLean is the center of the narrative, Ph.D. from Caltech, who led the program, and eventually China Lake
@nicolefv One dynamic with China Lake (let's call it CL) was minimum of organization and hierarchy: the important point: "Each person did the job for which they were best fitted. One day they'd be directing associates. Next day, it could be other day around."
@nicolefv In the interview, Dr. Westrum suggested that this is the opposite of a hierarchy, where managers tell workers what to do — instead, you want an org that give the job who can best do it.

That could be answering a question, dictating what the work should be, or doing the work.
@nicolefv Aside: that sounds kind of obvious, right? But contrast this to how many orgs actually work. This is about whether or not the organization respects knowledge.

"Lockheed Skunk Works shared many similar traits... Director "Kelly" Johnson promised P-80 Shooting star in
@nicolefv "...in 180 days; his hand-picked team did it in 141 days." Skunk Works was a small team, but China Lake had figured out how to scale this dynamic to thousands of employees
@nicolefv "Merle Tuve, maestro in charge of developing the proximity fuse in WWII, once said: "I don't want any damn fool in this laboratory to save money. I only want them to save time."

(Also resonates w/me. As @chawlady wrote: we stopped optimizing for cost, and optimized for speed)
@nicolefv @chawlady "Management theorist Deborah Dougherty argued successful products generally come from orgs whose design, mfg, sales, & marketing depts focus on meeting customer’s carefully studied needs.
@nicolefv @chawlady "Getting these four departments to focus on a common, well-chosen goal is the secret to success. What is remarkable about McLean is that he combined in a single person all these activities."

Dr. Westrum says that the literature calls this the "technical maestro"
@nicolefv @chawlady "In conceiving his missile, McLean determined to use “the minimum amount of garbage you had to hang on the rocket in order to make it home.” Experiments would tell him just how much garbage this was.."

(other missile programs burdened with lots of premature requirements)
@nicolefv @chawlady The dynamics of large, public, official missile programs (not Sidewinder): "years of effort go into preparing the systems, and often tests went badly. Millions of $$, and in some cases, fate of whole business divisions rode on the outcomes... Raytheon had 6K engrs on Falcon
@nicolefv @chawlady "...emotions ran high in the control room, and a man could break into tears when his missile failed." (painting the high-stakes dynamics in these massive programs that prematurely created rigid boundaries)
@nicolefv @chawlady Okay, taking a break. Will continue soon. I feel like I highlighted the entire book — I'm writing up my notes to clarify my own thinking on this. (thank you @RoamResearch)
...also, in addition to @nicolefv, while I'm thinking about it, my thanks to @jezhumble who first introduced me to Dr. Westrum's work, as it appeared in Lean Enterprise, and @allspaw, who sent me two of his papers over the years!

More to come later...

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"A trend once established, is more likely to continue than it is to reverse"

A thread on Trend (Market structure)-


A trend is a path of least resistance, basically the side where the smart money is betting upon.

And our work is to be on their side, to make some money.

Why do we use trend?

In an uptrend, the sum of the rallies will always be greater than the sum of the declines.

In a downtrend, the sum of the declines will always be greater than the sum of the rallies.

How to Find the trend?

There are 3 methods which one can use-

1. Swing points method.
2. Moving averages.
3. Trend lines, channels.

1. Trend identification by using swing points-

• UPTREND in simple words - Higher highs, higher lows

• DOWNTREND in simple words - lower lows, lower highs.


• Flat trend - The price stays in a range
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THE TRADER'S EDGE: THINKING IN PROBABILITIES

Casinos make consistent profits day after day and year after year, doing something random

At the same time, most traders believe that the outcome of the market's behavior is not random,yet can't produce consistent profits

Thread 🧵


What casino owners ,professional traders know is that probable outcomes can also produce consistent results if you " Have an edge" and trade on a large enough sample size.

The best traders treat trading like a numbers game.

1. To illustrate, let's look at the game of blackjack-


In blackjack, the casinos have approximately a 4.5-percent edge over the player.

This means that casinos will make profit over a large enough sample size, even after several winning streaks and big profits of many players.

At the end of the day, week, month, or year, the casino always ends up with approximately 4.5 percent of the total amount wagered.

That 4.5 percent might not sound like a lot, but let's put it in perspective.

Suppose a total of $100 million dollars is wagered collectively at all of a casino's blackjack tables over the course of a year. The casino will net $4.5 million.

What casino owners and pro traders understand about the nature of probabilities is that each individual hand played
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How position sizing can affect your trading performance-

Assuming that you are trading a Trend-following system with Big RR and low win-rate.

For example, assume that you risk one percent per trade on a 100,000 account
and you have 20 straight losses.

That one percent is of your remaining equity and at the end of 20 losses, you would be down to 81,790.60.

Now if you got a 30R winner and you are risking one percent of your balance of 81,790.60, your new equity would be 106,327.9,


You’ve had 20 losses and one winner though you are still up 10Rplus your equity is up by 6.3R percent.

Now, let’s say you risk five percent per trade on your balance. At the end of 20 straight losses, you would be down to 35,772.89 or down 64 percent.


If you risk five percent on this amount and get a 30R winner, you would be up to 89,621.48. You are up 10R, but because of your position sizing, your equity is still down over 10 percent.

#positionsizing
#Trading
#nifty50

This is why position sizing is the most important factor in trading if you get it right and you have an edge, you will do good.

Thanks for reading till here.
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Life is a continuous journey of going through peaks and troughs of Happiness and struggle.

We can only see the Happy part of other lives, but ignore what they might have gone through to achieve that.


But let me tell you, even if someone is at ease right now, doesn't mean that he will continue to be at ease for their whole life.

The struggle will come again and we will have to go through it ,whatever we do, whoever we are , we have to cross that river of pain.

Even,In trading there are times when nothing works out, you go through long time and money draw-downs.

Even if you think you are a master, you have to go through it.

If you are struggling right now, don't lose hope as the tables will turn.

But remember to work as hard as you can and do as much good work as you can in your ease or Joyful time of life, because the tables will turn again.

Thank you for reading.

Trader knight.
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Anon
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A thread on getting intraday (any timeframe) data to excel without any coding. Limited to only last 60 days. Fetches from zerodha chart.

👇

1. Open the chart on zerodha web in chrome. Right click and select 'Inspect'. Click 'Network' as shown in this pic.


2. Right click on the last entry on the table you see and click 'copy as cURL (bash)'


3. Go to website https://t.co/f8rhwoGLUc and paste on the left box and click 'Run'

4. The output below candles written on right of box is the ohlc, volume and oi data. Copy and paste to excel.
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