BC SUBHADIP DADA BALANCE AMP TREND RATION STRATEGY

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Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16 4 years, 10 months ago 987 views

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Along with the levels, there is Trend Ratio.
Near 1 or below is bearish, near 2 or above is bullish
( this as per last day's closing).
If Trend Ratio is bullish, expect support at Balance or breakout above Upper level will mean rally will continue.

If Trend Ratio is bearish, look for break or Balance or lower levels .

On a bullish Trend Ratio if Balance breaks, expect all longs to be trapped . Can short with stop above upper breakout figure. And vice versa

Normally the Trend Ratios of both indices are in sync, a little bit of difference. But here BNF is bullish while Nifty is bearish. So, if playing bullish tomorrow concentrate on BNF, If playing bearish, concentrate on Nifty

Major Rule :
1. DO NOT play bearish is market above Balance
2. DO NOT play bullish is market below Balance

The Balance basically tells you which side is a bit trapped

As long as the market stays within the upper and lower levels, option sellers ( whether they have sold on friday or will sell tomorrow) are at an advantageous position and make money. Whichever side this level is broken, that side sellers will be trapped

This is how I will view the market tomorrow :

Nifty fut : Has closed on Friday below the Balance for Monday. So if Nifty opens a little below, will go short with a stop above Balance. Below lower levels will short more

BNF : Will look to jump in and buy if BNF crosses 38041. Else will wait for Balance to be checked, if there are signs of rebound, will go long with stop below Balance

Again, normally these levels are in sync. It's not often two indices show opposing views . So will trade a bit carefully tomorrow

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Options and their price action analysis.
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A small write up on how the OPTION PRICES BEHAVES AT SUPPORT & RESISTANCE pic.twitter.com/eBlXAZU4Ma
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I see a lot of traders following classical chart patterns . Being a pattern follower myself for some years , here is my advice to them as I feel some pointers will improve their accuracy . Again , this is not the only correct way but what I have learnt from my experiences

1. Volume confirmation is a must. Without the volume rules being fulfilled , there is no importance to the pattern

2. Understand where the pattern is taking place within the major price structure of the index/stock. An inverse head and shoulders bottom reversal occurs at market bottoms , not at market tops

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My experiences in trading through various international locha events, high VIX and various events.
A thread

I follow the news, but never think of myself smart enough to predict what is finally going to happen. I am not a geopolitical expert, smarter brains than me are analyzing and acting on the news

Their actions are reflected on price, volume, OI. Following the data keeps me at par with the latest news

Be ready to cut your existing positions ruthlessly when data changes, be ready to absorb the loss and get out of the position. Never hold onto with hope.
Never works

Reduce trading volumes. Higher the volatility, lower the trade size.
Use lower volumes and bigger stops to counter the volatility

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@SubhadipNandy16

When I first started learning different option strategies, long straddles seemed the easiest and the way to riches without any significant risk.

Simply buy a CE and PE of same strike before an event, whichever way rhe stock moves post event you make money

But real life is a tougher place, so this did not work in practice 🤣

Vols went up before event pricing in the risk, and since vols over estimate event impact in general, majority of the time there is a vol crush post event and straddles lose money. ( this is why sellers sell)

But the markets now is a strange place. Vols refuse to go up before an event. We have GDP data today evening and Gujarat election results within next weekly expiry. The cost is 1.3% of Nifty for the next week straddle with 8DTE .

So whoever is selling this straddle does not expect Nifty to move 1.3% from here, either up or down within next Thursday? Does not make sense.
Vols not rising before event makes it a no brainer to buy this straddle

With vols not going up before event and with such low vols, chances of further vol crush are slim. Plus, even if markets now go up further, I think traders will get a bit nervous/fearful pushing vols up.

Let's see whether my thesis works out 🙏

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The most common problem faced by day-traders and it's easy solution which is extremely difficult to implement.
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( uses concepts I have discussed many times before in separate threads)

Problem : I have a good system, I understand charts and/or price action, but I simply can't make money. I hold my losses too long or ( this is most common) I get out of profitable positions too fast and cannot sit for the whole move

At many firms at NASDAQ, day-traders are seen as elite sportspersons playing in a difficult taxing game. That's why, they have regular sessions with sports psychologists. They are advised to follow the basic routine of sportspersons.
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Rest = taking time off markets
Train = trading in markets in training mode

Understanding REST is easy, simply take time off markets and spend time with family or do something you love

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