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My experiences in trading through various international locha events, high VIX and various events.
A thread

 I follow the news, but never think of myself smart enough to predict what is finally going to happen. I am not a geopolitical expert, smarter brains than me are analyzing and acting on the news
Their actions are reflected on price, volume, OI. Following the data keeps me at par with the latest news
Be ready to cut your existing positions ruthlessly when data changes, be ready to absorb the loss and get out of the position. Never hold onto with hope.
Never works
Reduce trading volumes. Higher the volatility, lower the trade size.
Use lower volumes and bigger stops to counter the volatility
A high VIX means a bigger expected daily range. A quick recap on VIX :
VIX is an annualised number. A 23.5 VIX means the market is expecting a 23.5% move on the Nifty from here in the next one year with 68% confidence
To make a daily calc, simply take the sqroot of the number of trading days in a year and divide the current VIX by this number

The number of trading days in a year is 252, sqroot of that is 15.87
( 16 rounded, what we call rule of 16)
21/16 = 1.3

1.3% of current Nifty is tomorrow's implied move = 225 points

At say 14 VIX, 14/16 = 0.87 , implied move = 147
Remember, VIX updates in realtime so this implied move expectation also changes in real time

So, in high VIX, the intraday moves are large. One may not need to keep overnight positions and just trade intraday for large rewards, the moves are expected to be there
OI changes fast in realtime, both on futures and on the option chain. One will need to continuously reassess and make trading decisions as per current data. Doing so regularly during the trading session is a good practice
Option sellers operate on the assumption of mean reversion, that a high vol will be followed by low vol
But at high vol, another factor of volatility comes into play, PERSISTENCY
PERSISETNCY simply means if vol is high today, it will be high tomorrow also
Attempt mean reversion in vol ( aka options selling) only after you are sure that the cycle has changed. Why is vol important? because as IV goes up, theta decay slows down
Lastly, this kind of fast newsflow markets with high VIX are rare. If uncomfortable, sit out and protect capital
But these kind of markets also provide a phd level education in handling high volatility and risk mgmt. Do trade with smaller volumes, even 1 lot.
"Smooth seas never made skillful sailors" - African Proverb

--------------------end ------------------
Seems people did not know about Rule of 16, it's a well known fact. Read this :

https://t.co/bDjwnNt8D5

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In technical analysis, majority of the patterns were first observed visually and then the rules made. Observing this interesting phenomenon on BNF over the past one month.
Any strong up day on BNF is immediately followed by a gap down open from the previous closing


So any upmove /upday is almost never having any follow-up buying the next day. Unless this pattern gets broken by 1-3 days of upmove after a strong closing, BNF looks extremely bearish. The logic of BNF seems to be " will kick your ass if you take bullish positions overnight" 😀

Jokes apart, if you want to understand the logical basis of patterns, this book is still the best :
Technical analysis of stock trends by Edwards and
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Nifty fut : rising Lows and Highs, showing a megaphone or broadening formation on 15 min charts. Though a bearish pattern, here it seems has broken out. 11k CEs on monthlies seems badly trapped. As long as the CE is > 140, will maintain a strong bullish stance


EOD charts. Rising after strong accumulation and volumes. COI going up with rise in price. Can have a fast upmove anytime now till 11300. View negated below 10900


BNF 15 min charts : showing FLAG formation. Breakout above 22400, trade negated below 22200. Targets given in chart. Also higher highs and higher lows


BNF also strong accumulation yesterday. This model is also showing continuous accumulation since 16th. Almost same levels given in earlier tweet


Now there are broad positional views, or the context. Trades now will be based on realtime data , option analysis etc. But these analysis suggests keeping a bullish bias on the indices while trading now unless this data changes drastically
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Subhadip Nandy
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Since 99% of my own trades are in options, the calls I give are also on options. I am of the firm belief, that a basic knowledge of option greeks is necessary for any trader aspiring to trade options. For this, there are numerous books and even more resources on the net/youtube

However, a trader trying to learn Greeks face the problem of information overload. The problems are mainly 3
1. Either the text is too mathematical
2. Or the explanation is too simple just skimming the surface
3. In some cases, outright wrong info ( specially on youtube)

I have decided to make a video on options greeks in which I will try to explain simply ( without the maths 😀) but will go a bit more in-depth so that the info is usable by traders doing actual trades

Spent the major part of today designing the ppt ( 40 slides), hope to upload the video in the next few days. I will also provide the names of other resources which I have referred in making the video so that viewers can refer those texts for a more comprehensive understanding.

The video will be from the view of a trader/practitioner and not just a theoretical discussion.

I sincerely hope starters will be benefitted from my effort 🙏
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Two year back thread on MFI, someone liked this so came up in notifications . Rather than running around 100s of indicators, I have made this my go to indicator under any circumstances and have been using this for years


This thread actually had some great answers , one can learn a lot about the thought processes of different traders from the answers. Please go thru them
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Subhadip Nandy
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A small thread on intraday support resistance logics over time

The most common is Pivot , support and resistances calculated from the previous day's data

https://t.co/ILMjMay1zc

They can be calculated for daily, weekly, monthly etc.

Camarilla levels are also quite popular. This seemed to be the next best thing after the original pivots at one point of

Over the years, many other technicians have tried to devise other methods to devise intraday support resistance points. In almost all cases, the previous days OHLC were used in some variation, in some cases today's OPEN was also used as an input

I have gone through almost all of the formulas. Some work on some days, some days it doesn't.
What struck me was that in each of the cases , we were using the OHLC and doing some maths with a multiplier/divider which WE/the trader thought fits the price action of the markets

This is the same as choosing a time period of an indicator and hope the market follows my choice of time frame to give me good trades. Like say a crossover of a 5/13 moving average, or a 14 period RSI or whatever.
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Did you know?
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Despite the fact that girls' education was a farther dream in those days, Ahilyabai was homeschooled by her father.
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While they were living their humdrum lives, one day Malhar Rao Holkar, commander of the Peshwa Bajirao & Lord of the Malwa stopped in Chondi on his way to Pune, where he couldn't help but notice a young 8yrs old Ahilyabai in the temple service feeding the poor & hungry.

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Thrikkangode Sree Randu Moorthy Temple
Ottappalam, Kerala. 🚩
#keralatemples

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Vigrahams and it suddenly started bleeding. Later Devaprashnam was held and thus found out that these were murthy's of Shiva and Vishnu which was worshipped long back. And thus temple is constructed here.
Om Namah Sivaye
Om Namo Narayanaya
🕉🙏🕉
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ULTIMATE GUIDE TO 21 and 200 Moving Average
SUNDAY THREAD 🔖
A trend Following System That will Help You Improve Trading immensely.

RETWEET AND SHARE 🔄
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1/n

Moving averages
EMA and SMA
1. Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is similar to Simple Moving Average (SMA), measuring trend direction over a period of time.
2. However, whereas SMA simply calculates an average of price data, EMA applies more weight to data that is more current
2/


21 EMA : SHORT TERM TREND
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3. Stock above 21 ema should never be shorted so as to stay with the trend
3/n

3. A stock which moves 10-15% above 21 ema will be too extended and hence will generally pullback
Stocks take dynamic support on 21 ema
4. You can Short only if its too extended like 15 to 20% from 21 ema ( Not advised )
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1. Whenever 21 ema is sloping upwards its called uptrend
2. Whenever 21 ema is sloping downwards its called dowtrend
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⏫Buy in uptrend
⏬Sell in downtrend
Examples:
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Devi will answer all the prayers of her devotees who pray to her with utmost devotion lighting the ghee deepam.


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