Understanding HIGH & LOW VIX

VIX at 16: If you check today's IV behaviour, they were not spiking much even with decent delta move in BNF. The movement was subtle, giving some time to adjust. So someone having good adjustment mechanism can stay in the game longer.

1/

VIX at 20: The same delta move will be more fierce, coupled with rise in premiums. When premiums rise with movement, then the adjustment cost increases exponentially. The premiums can fall back at EOD, but the damage is done if caught in the spike.

2/

After talking to few traders, their backtest result was in favor of high VIX of 2020, rather than 2017-19. The key flaw in the backtest were the adjustments which are not easy to calculate. Combination of high theta & fixed SL during high VIX, the IV crush is cashed at EOD.

3/

Neutral option sellers who don't adjust & have fixed SL on a static straddle will not be able to benefit highly in low VIX. The straddle which moves away from ATM will increase no matter what. But if we keep on rolling our strikes, then we get good realisation of theta.

4/

I have made majority of my profits in option selling when VIX was at 13-15, mostly just relying on my adjustments. Since 2020 with high VIX, adjustments stopped working because of increase in the frequency of delta + IV spike combos & so had to shift to directional trading.

5/

Using knowledge derived from your videos @nishkumar1977 @vivbajaj I am Tracking sectoral performances real-time using Tradingview's Compare Feature.

Very Intuitive, Handy & Works with a Free Account!

Process :

1. Add your benchmark Index. Say, Nifty 50.

2. Add Indices you want to track Via Compare feature in @tradingview Click Same % Scale

3. I have added a handful of them. Because I want to see a sector turning and catch outperformance immediately.

4. Set a Benchmark Date from where you want the performance to be calculated. Since we have selected same % scale, as our chart moves the % on right will change. It considers the date on left as the starting point. Mark it & Scroll such that that vertical line is just about seen.

Save this as your Indicator Template & come back to it whenever you want to track indices from one page in real time & any time frame!

From HDFC Bank to Kotak to Bajaj Finance to Canara Bank!

How did lenders perform in Q4FY21?🤔

A thread🧵on the Banking/NBFC results

Hit "Retweet" to educate maximum Investors

Lets go👇

(1/24)

HDFC Bank:Stable

🏦Profits grow at 18.2%
🏦Asset quality remains stable with credit costs at 1.65% for the quarter
🏦CAR at 18.8%
🏦Gross NPAs at 1.32% vs 1.38%
🏦HDB Financial returns to profits
🏦Watching carefully on how the second wave will turn out

(2/24)

ICICI Bank Results:-Stable

🏦Operating profit grows at 20%
🏦Covid-19 provisions increased by 1000cr to 7475cr
🏦Deposits grow by 21%
🏦Net NPA declines to 1.14%
🏦Capital Adequacy at 18.06%
🏦Retail loan growth at 20%
🏦Corporate loan growth at 13%
🏦Dividend-Rs 2/share

(3/24)

Cholamandalam Investment:Stable

🏦Disbursements decline 13%
🏦Loan loss provisions at 1.4%
🏦Profits up 29%
🏦Positive on Auto financing

(4/24)

HDFC Ltd:Strong

🏦Loan disbursements grow 60%
🏦Month of March had highest ever disbursements
🏦Gross NPAs at 1.98%
🏦Individual loan NPAs at 0.99%
🏦Non-Individual Loan NPAs at 4.77%
🏦Dividend of Rs 23/share
🏦PAT grows by 19%

(5/24)

Sharing few Technical indicators with @shail_bhatnagar and @virendraonNifty on @CNBC_Awaaz which i usually follow..!!
You can Retweet or share to your friends as well if you feel these are good for new trader in the market.
Market is supreme and it teaches us every day.

Few #Patterns to master.

Disc* Found on internet.

Thread on Importance of Mean Reversion

U must have remember the charts of auto sector breakout on last monday,potentially poised to be the next leader in the rally.
But since then it just fell bad and deep
Breaking the breakout bar low

1/7

The seemingly convincing breakout retest structure in abv daily chart takes a cocpletely different picture in u open the chart in weekly TF

shooting start at the resistance line of a triangle and at a major supply zone

2/7

Major stocks such as heromoto, maruti, eichermot and babajauto are already trading below the breakout level it established on monday when sector broke out

3/7

This poses a serious question on the risks associated with breakout.

Popularity behind the breakout is the fact that it doesnt need any skills to spot it, even a 90% blind man can spot it in any chart, because the price just sticks out from the rest by a very big margin

4/7

But think about a completely diffferent method where the price makes a clean move and the risks assicated with it is cubstantially less.

Price available so cheap and at support

5/7

---THREAD ON F&O BAN---

📛 What’s F&O Ban?
Stock goes into ban when combined Open Interest (OI) of both Future & Options contracts across series & across exchanges exceeds 95% of Market Wide Position Limit (MWPL)

Reason for stock going in ban is to curb EXCESSIVE SPECULATION

📛 What happens when stock goes into ‘FNO ban’?
-One CANNOT take Fresh positions
-But CAN square off existing position

📛 Can you trade?

Yes, you can take ‘INTRA-DAY’ position ONLY if your broker allows

But If intraday position ‘NOT CLOSED ‘

Then exchange levies PENALTY of 1% of value of increased position subject to minimum penalty of 5k & max of 1 lakh

📛 When stock is in ban can you reverse an existing position in a stock that is in FNO ban?

'YES'

Example

-If you are long on 2000 Call strike of RIL
-Can reverse with opposite position by selling 2000 Call strike

📛 When does the stock come out of ban?

-When OI falls below 80% of MWPL

Note: Exchange releases MWPL data for all F&O stocks monthly

#INDICATORS
All my TV indicators can be accessed by adding to favorites from the below link:
https://t.co/vSyPBEvnLY
Notable ones r:
1) JPMUPS - contains all the pivots
2) Pivotshift
3) ADMIN
4) DPW
5) Pivotwidth for next session
......
and much more.

(1/n) Some notes from my trading journal – A thread
With this thread I shall attempt to explain how I select my trading picks.

I have learn't this concept from @markminervini 's books. Hope it helps.

#Trade #Investment #invest #StockMarket #stocks #india

(2/n) Stock trading above 200 and 50 DMA

Buy high to gain higher. CMP above 50 Day Moving Average (DMA) and 50 DMA above 200 DMA signifies the stock to be in an uptrend. This is an uncompromisable rule. @ZerodhaVarsity @zerodhaonline
#stocks

(3/n) Volume

Volume is the key factor. The stock should show clear signs of accumulation. Generally, accumulation should happen over multiple periods of time. Attached image in the case of #BALAMINES can be used as an eg.
@ZerodhaVarsity

#stocks #StockMarket

(4/n) Surge

A stock should be bought either when it’s in stage 2 or when it’s forming a base after a surge. Surge is an upward move in a stock. The best trades are those when a huge surge happens in a very short time frame. Eg #FILATEX
@ZerodhaVarsity

#stocks #StockMarket

(5/n) Consolidation

After a good surge, a stock generally consolidates. This means the stock is in its resting period and will trade only in a range. This phase will be coupled with volume dry up. Tight range with low volumes are the best setups. @ZerodhaVarsity
#stocks

Thread: Alligator indicator

#Alligator #Indicators #Definedge

Alligator indicator is created by Bill Williams. He was a popular trader and author.

Before we discuss the indicator, let us understand an important concept.

Here is a chart showing 10 day moving average at bar A. Price of the stock is 100, Moving average price is 90.

What if we shift this moving average to 5 bars further? See the chart below.

Moving average at bar B is moving average price of bar A (5 candles behind). This is shifting of moving average price. What does it mean?

Simple explanation is – shifting the moving average can help one compare current price with past period moving average easily. It results in smoothening instead of increasing the moving average parameter. This is also known as Forward Displaced moving average.

My course on the basics of #stockmarket is live on https://t.co/8Jbd0ujLKq! Thanks, @malpani for helping create such a nice platform that promotes learning :D

Link: https://t.co/tHYK9XBovd

P.S. in case you've watched the course vids before, I will be adding more videos soon!

MACD and how I use it

1 FMCG stock chart has so much to teach -
1) Cup
2) Handle
3) BO
4) Retest
5) Bearish RSI divergence

What is obvious, USUALLY doesn't play out #StockMarket

Another 1 from the same space...15min chart shows massive buying in the closing minutes & CE's running for cover. Find it---> Analyse it ---> Trade it

BHEL may come of F&O ban for tomorrow’s trade -Open interest as of now at 79% of MWPL

PNB also very close to coming out of ban - OI at 80% of MWPL

Note- OI has to fall below 80% for a stock to come out of ban

#stockmarkets #Nifty #stocks

Impact of crude oil on various sectors…

Thread :

#asianpaints (Weekly)

- A stock moving with a healthy momentum and reasonably good trajectory.

- I assume that It may come down to touch it's primary support trend line as it did in the past.

-If it do so, It will be a "must buy" opportunity.

Tip:
a) 30°-45° inclined trend line is considered sustainable.
b) Steeper trend line angle can not sustain for a long period of time.
c) Exceptions are always there.
d) To beginners : Explore more related to trend line inclination angle and relate this with above chart.

Chasing extended #stocks is often not rewarded! What's extended?

1) >70% above EMA 200
2) Up 3 days in a row
3) >3 pullbacks on the EMA 21
4) >5% above trading base without pullback
5) >10% in one day It's better to wait for a consolidation before you enter.