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Mayank Narula
@Mayank_Narula1 3 years, 9 months ago 542 views

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Bull Market Rotation: We all have heard about bull market rotation over last few months.

Let's see how it looks. Below is the comparative chart of IT (candlestick chart) vs Metals (blue line chart). Let's see how it has moved from March'20 bottom till now.

(1/4)

1) March'20 to July'20: Both going up but IT clearly outperforming metals during the period.

2) July to Aug: IT consolidating, metals outperforming.

3) Aug to Oct: IT moving up, metals under retracement.

(2/4)

4) Oct to Nov: Tables turning again in favour of metals.

5) Nov to Jan: Both moving up, but IT outperforming.

6) Jan to May: Metals outperforming IT after some initial retracement in first few weeks of Jan. Since last week of Jan to May, it's been all metals.

(3/4)

7) May to July: IT again leading, with metals consolidating.

Let's see how it turns from here.

(4/4)

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Long term monthly chart.

Is silver setting up for something huge?

Last time 5-wave move resulted in 10x (2002-2011), followed by 9 years correction.

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CRB index has just reached the tops made in 1997 and 2000 and bottom made in 2009.

Relax, commodity rally is not over. It has just started and perhaps taking a breather.

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#Nifty

So now that Nifty has undergone ABC correction in the expected manner, what to expect next?

I think we have started larger degree wave 3, once 16800 was crossed.

16800 is the reference level now. We will get more sense by end of next week/ month. https://t.co/KsziuUpZxU

I am no expert in Wave Theory, but can this be a possible path over next few weeks/months?

Views requested. @idineshptl @indiacharts @nishkumar1977 pic.twitter.com/u3DjEeqoqB
— Mayank Narula (@Mayank_Narula1) December 6, 2021

#NIFTY

If 17445 is taken out, then may be we are heading to fresh new all time on Nifty.

Things may pan out way faster than expected.

#NIFTY

Zoomed in cross-section of the chart above.

Wave 3 of 1 should have started today, which can take Nifty to fresh all time highs.

#NIFTY

So now Nifty is moving more clearly on the expected path, what's next?

Nifty has started longer term wave 3 advancement, pending final confirmation of HH by crossing 17800.

In Wave 1 of 3, can expect a move to 20k+.

In terms of longer term wave structure:

Wave 1: 7500 to 18600
Wave 3: 15700 to 35000+

And this can pan out over next 2 years or so.

Since wave 2 was a shallow correction, wave 4 can potentially be a deeper correction.

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@Mayank_Narula1

#Nifty

May get gap filling tomorrow and Wave 2 dip to 17700 or so.

Channel should act as support in closing basis.

Mayank Narula
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#Tatametali

Fib levels

Stock peaked out at 1.618 extension of last swing at 1373.7. Now consolidating around 1.272 extension level.

Can potentially do 2055 after taking out 1388.

Will wait for breakout. Metals are looking prime for next run.

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In a recent interview with Udayan Mukherjee, the big bull Rakesh Jhunjhunwala made an interesting bold statement - "I think nobody has read the Electricity (Amendment) Bill. Once it passes, it will be bigger than 1991 reforms."

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⚡️ Delicensing of state monopoly- open to competition
⚡️ Consumers can choose discoms (like telcos)
⚡️ Smart meters to plug leakages
⚡️ Easy resolution of disputes
⚡️ Right to 24x7 electricity
⚡️ Rewarding consumers shifting to solar

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We'll discuss these in detail. But first, some context.

India's is the 3rd largest consumer of electricity. But also one of the most inefficient (measured via AT&C losses - electricity that is generated but does not reach intended customers)
AT&C: 22% vs 8% global. Chart 👇

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Currently, only 9% Indians are served by private discoms (Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Delhi).

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What are discoms?

The Power value chain:
Raw material (Coal, Fuel) --> Generation --> Transmission --> Distribution --> Consumption

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