Mayank Narula's Threads | Buzz Chronicles

#Silver

Long term monthly chart.

Is silver setting up for something huge?

Last time 5-wave move resulted in 10x (2002-2011), followed by 9 years correction.

Mayank Narula
@Mayank_Narula1

RSI is almost perfect indicator.

Ion Ex: RSI made top on 10 June and stock closed at 2178.9.There was a divergence on the chart as RSI kept making LH but price kept up.But in yesterday's correction, price exactly visited the closing price of RSI top and cleared the divergence.

Mayank Narula
@Mayank_Narula1

#HINDCOPPER

Need a trip under 150 to clear the weekly divergence.

Let's see if we get that next week or not.

Mayank Narula
@Mayank_Narula1

#Tatametali

Fib levels

Stock peaked out at 1.618 extension of last swing at 1373.7. Now consolidating around 1.272 extension level.

Can potentially do 2055 after taking out 1388.

Will wait for breakout. Metals are looking prime for next run.

Mayank Narula
@Mayank_Narula1

CRB index has just reached the tops made in 1997 and 2000 and bottom made in 2009.

Relax, commodity rally is not over. It has just started and perhaps taking a breather.

@nishkumar1977

Mayank Narula
@Mayank_Narula1

Bull Market Rotation: We all have heard about bull market rotation over last few months.

Let's see how it looks. Below is the comparative chart of IT (candlestick chart) vs Metals (blue line chart). Let's see how it has moved from March'20 bottom till now.

(1/4)

1) March'20 to July'20: Both going up but IT clearly outperforming metals during the period.

2) July to Aug: IT consolidating, metals outperforming.

3) Aug to Oct: IT moving up, metals under retracement.

(2/4)

4) Oct to Nov: Tables turning again in favour of metals.

5) Nov to Jan: Both moving up, but IT outperforming.

6) Jan to May: Metals outperforming IT after some initial retracement in first few weeks of Jan. Since last week of Jan to May, it's been all metals.

(3/4)

7) May to July: IT again leading, with metals consolidating.

Let's see how it turns from here.

(4/4)

Mayank Narula
@Mayank_Narula1

I did this comparison between Aarti Drugs and Tata Elxsi back in Oct when Tata Elxsi was at 1200-1300. Now it is 4200+.

Here is one more stock displaying similar characteristics: Mayur Uniquoters.

Spot the similarities here in the price action:#AARTIDRUGS

2013-2015: Monthly RSI goes over 70 and stock goes up 4-5x.

2015-2020: range consolidation

2020: repeat of 2013-15 in few months pic.twitter.com/53L2fNpJoM
— Mayank Narula (@Mayank_Narula1) October 10, 2020

#MayurUniq

Coming out of 7 years consolidation.

Weekly and monthly RSI crossing over 70.

Can it do what Aarti Drugs and Tata Elxsi did in last 1 year?

#MayurUniq

Monthly RSI crossed over 70 in Sep'09 and stayed till Sep'11.

Stock did 5x in that time.

Mayank Narula
@Mayank_Narula1

GOLD: I don't understand what's so complicated about Gold.

Below 1920: Must avoid.

Above 1920 on weekly and monthly closing basis: Breakout of epic proportions.

Mayank Narula
@Mayank_Narula1

#HDFCBANK

70-80 points fall more and it will be at the long term trendline from the year 2000.

Mayank Narula
@Mayank_Narula1

Carnage in broader market is something of a characteristic of the final leg of correction.

Broader market bleeds more than index to scare off the retail from smaller stocks.

Can go on for few weeks.

Mayank Narula
@Mayank_Narula1

#Nifty

So now that Nifty has undergone ABC correction in the expected manner, what to expect next?

I think we have started larger degree wave 3, once 16800 was crossed.

16800 is the reference level now. We will get more sense by end of next week/ month. https://t.co/KsziuUpZxU

I am no expert in Wave Theory, but can this be a possible path over next few weeks/months?

Views requested. @idineshptl @indiacharts @nishkumar1977 pic.twitter.com/u3DjEeqoqB
— Mayank Narula (@Mayank_Narula1) December 6, 2021

#NIFTY

If 17445 is taken out, then may be we are heading to fresh new all time on Nifty.

Things may pan out way faster than expected.

#NIFTY

Zoomed in cross-section of the chart above.

Wave 3 of 1 should have started today, which can take Nifty to fresh all time highs.

#NIFTY

So now Nifty is moving more clearly on the expected path, what's next?

Nifty has started longer term wave 3 advancement, pending final confirmation of HH by crossing 17800.

In Wave 1 of 3, can expect a move to 20k+.

In terms of longer term wave structure:

Wave 1: 7500 to 18600
Wave 3: 15700 to 35000+

And this can pan out over next 2 years or so.

Since wave 2 was a shallow correction, wave 4 can potentially be a deeper correction.

Mayank Narula
@Mayank_Narula1

#SUGAR

Shared this update on sugar stocks in Feb on telegram.

Some of them have moved a bit but this is just the beginning.

Way sugar is setting up, it can very well replicate pharma rally of 2020.

However, looks extended on smaller tf. Will wait here for some retracement.

Mayank Narula
@Mayank_Narula1

#BajajFinance

Chart which has closely mimicked the Nifty move since the start of October'21 correction, has made a higher swing high yesterday.

Nifty is yet to make higher swing high, but still looks promising.

Mayank Narula
@Mayank_Narula1

#bajajfinserv

Decision time for the stock.

Has been mimicking closely the Nifty chart, so we can say that #Bajajfinserv can indicate what direction market can take from here.

RSI going in same direction as price but MFI showing positive divergence.

#bajajfinserv

If it breaks the expanding triangle on closing basis, we are looking at 20-25% correction from here.

Daily RSI was oversold at the bottom and failed to come over 30 in last 2 days.

Worrisome signs.

#bajajfinserv

Structure broken.

Target of 20-25% fall from here is activated.

Mayank Narula
@Mayank_Narula1

#INFY

Gap down on huge volumes and then bearish engulfing on huge volumes.

Things will only get worse for IT stocks from here onwards.

Mayank Narula
@Mayank_Narula1

DXY and commodities usually don't move in the same direction.

One of them has to give-in.

My money (not literally) is on commodities reversal in near future.

Even in the past, whenever the inverse relationship appeared to be broken, it always resolved in the favour of USD.

Mayank Narula
@Mayank_Narula1

#Nifty

May get gap filling tomorrow and Wave 2 dip to 17700 or so.

Channel should act as support in closing basis.

Mayank Narula
@Mayank_Narula1

#HINDUNILVR

Decade old move appears to have ended here. If last cycle is any indication, then 61.8% retracement can't be ruled out. (around 600)

Market is falling out with consumer facing businesses, be it HDFC Bank (consumer finance) or HUL (Consumer goods).

Mayank Narula
@Mayank_Narula1

Of all the bullish combinations that can work on Nifty, Bank Nifty+ Reliance combination is the most potent one.

But then what else will take Nifty to 35000+ in 2-3 years.

Mayank Narula
@Mayank_Narula1

I will be a buyer under 13800 levels, but depending upon the reversal on smaller timeframe.

#BITCOIN

Pending RSI divergence on monthly chart which requires a dip under 13805 to get resolved.

But monthly RSI divergences can go on for years before the resolution.

Best case scenario will be panic dump over next few months. pic.twitter.com/hi67hMg9sZ
— Mayank Narula (@Mayank_Narula1) March 5, 2022

Authors Mayank Narula