BC SOCIETY
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

The focal S:N501 build is now updated with data from 13 Jan!

There are a total of 247 non-UK & non-South African sequences in 501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7 #b117) & 501Y.V2.

I'll do an additional thread later on, covering S:E484 & the 'Ohio variants'.

1/18

https://t.co/3bdttjKVl4

 There are 244 new sequences in 501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7) from Australia, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, India, Israel, Italy, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain & USA, as well sequences as from Ecuador and Greece for the first time.

2/18
Greece has 3 new sequences in 501Y.V1 for the first time. They indicate 2 separate introductions.

Ecuador has 2 sequences for the first time. They also indicate 2 separate introductions.

3/18
The USA has 61 new sequences (orange), from Florida, Minnesota, California, Pennsylvania, & New York.

A few of these represent separate introductions. Others form distinct clusters that may indicate ongoing local transmission.

4/18
Israel has 35 new sequences (orange). Some of these show separate introductions, but many link with older sequences, indicating ongoing local transmission.

5/18
The Netherlands has 34 new sequences (orange). A few of these represent separate introductions, but most form a large cluster with older sequences from the Netherlands, indicating ongoing local transmission.

6/18
Portugal has 31 new sequences (orange). Though hard to see in the zoomed-out view, most of these represent separate introductions. There is one case where 2 new seqs are identical to an older one, but this could be a common exposure source.

7/18
Denmark has 20 new sequences (orange). A few of these indicate separate introductions, but must cluster with older sequences in smaller groups or in the very large Danish group previously identified, indicating local transmission.

8/18
Norway has 14 new sequences (orange). Most indicate separate introductions, but a few are identical to or related to an older sequence, which may indicate local transmission.

9/18
Spain has 11 new sequences (orange). All of these indicate separate introductions, though some new sequences link together to form tight clusters. This could indicate local transmission or a common source.

10/18
New Zealand has 10 new sequences (orange). All represent separate introductions, though some new sequences are linked together.

11/18
Singapore has 6 new sequences (orange). Though hard to see in zoomed-out view, most of these indicate separate introductions.

12/18
Italy has 6 new sequences (orange). It's a bit hard to see in the zoomed-out view, but none of these link directly with older samples, indicating separate introductions - though 2 new seqs link together.

13/18
Germany has 4 new sequences (orange). Though hard to see in the zoomed-out view, these all represent separate introductions.

14/18
Australia also has 4 new sequences (orange), including the first from Western Australia. These indicate separate introductions, though 2 of the new sequences are identical (marked in red).

15/18
India has 2 new sequences (orange, one hidden behind the green - pic 1). One is a separate introduction, the other links with a previous sequence (pic 2).

Belgium has 1 new sequence, which links 1 mutation away from a previous sequence (pic 3).

16/18
There are 3 new non-South African sequences in 501Y.V2, from Germany for the first time. They are identical, which may indicate a common exposure.

17/18
The updated country plots will go up soon, and I'll add another thread later on S:E484 & the 'Ohio variants'.

18/18
The updated country plots are now up. As always, be careful interpreting plots as many countries are selectively sequencing S:N501 & S-drop outs (which often increases S:N439), so frequencies are often not representative!

19/18

https://t.co/c7wlQOufTQ

More from Dr Emma Hodcroft

Dr Emma Hodcroft
Dr Emma Hodcroft
@firefoxx66
🎉Happy New Year!🎉

To kick off 2021, here's an update on:
- S:N501 variants (501Y.V1/V2) with data from 31 Dec 2020
- 69/70del variants
- 20A.EU1 variant (most prevalent variant in Europe)

(Here are some fireworks that look a bit like phylogenies! 🎆)

1/23


The latest sequences from 31 Dec show new sequences in the S:N501Y.V1 variant (originating from SE England) from Netherlands, Denmark, Australia, Italy, Canada, the USA, Germany, Switzerland, & India.

2/23

S:N501 link
https://t.co/TfHfPgBEBS

Image link
https://t.co/3aCKv1pAcI


Canada, Germany, & Switzerland all have sequences that fall in 501Y.V1 for the first time, scattered across the tree.

3/23


The USA also has its first 2 sequences that fall in 501Y.V1, from Colorado & California. India also had its first 3 sequences, also from different regions.

In both cases, the sequences are not connected, indicating separate introductions.

4/23


In countries with previous sequences:

6 new sequences from Netherlands, in orange/yellow (green are older).
1 is clearly separate - zooming in (& in divergence view, coloured by country) it is harder to determine the relationship between the others.

5/23
SOCIETY
Dr Emma Hodcroft
Dr Emma Hodcroft
@firefoxx66
Lots of tweets about this today!
Let's see what we can see in the focal S:E484 build!

Phylogenetics (what I do - making 'family trees' from virus genetics) can be very informative to see how different variants are spreading, and how cases

There are two variants circulating predominantly in Brazil:
- 20B/S.484K seems to be older & more widespread. It has (among others) a mutation at position 484
- 20J/501Y.V3 is smaller & detected recently. It has mutations at 501 *and* 484.

2/10

https://t.co/Cw5u2kuATa


The variant predominantly in the UK (501Y.V1 / B.1.1.7) and the variant predominantly in South Africa (501Y.V2) also both have 501. 501Y.V2 *also* has the 484K mutation.

Why are there concerns about these mutations? You can read more at https://t.co/wVE7ubYBoy!

3/10


The view below is from an analysis focusing on sequences with a mutation at 484. It shows all the samples in the 2 variants (20B/S.484K & 20J/501Y.V3) & how they're related. More closely related = closer together (very, very roughly).

4/10


We can colour these samples by region to see where they're from. As we expect - most are in Brazil! A few are in Argentina (also red).

5/10

https://t.co/Cw5u2kuATa
SOCIETY
Advertisement
Dr Emma Hodcroft
Dr Emma Hodcroft
@firefoxx66
A brief update to the focal S:N501 builds to start your Friday off right! This one includes data from 7 Jan 21.

We have about 20 new sequences each in 501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7 #b117) & 501Y.V2.

Let's take a look at the new sequences, starting with 501Y.V1

1/14

https://t.co/kT1gFsSZn0


There are 22 new non-UK sequences in 501Y.V1, including for the first time from Luxembourg (3), & additional seqs from Singapore (1), Australia (4), France (12), & Switzerland (2).

2/14


First, Luxembourg has 3 sequences in 501Y.V1 for the first time. Each represents a separate introduction.

3/14


France has 12 new sequences (orange). Many of these represent independent introductions.

Zooming in (divergence view), we can see 2 new sequences are identical (possible local transmission), & 2 differ by 2 mutations (1 each).

4/14


Australia has 4 new sequences (red and orange) which are spread across the tree, representing separate additional introductions.

5/14
FOR LATER READ
Dr Emma Hodcroft
Dr Emma Hodcroft
@firefoxx66
The latest S:N501 focal build is now up, with data from 28th Dec:

We can see new sequences from Italy, Israel, Spain, France, & Ireland in the SE England variant (501Y.V1) & Switzerland in the South African variant (501Y.V2).

1/8

https://t.co/PEU7dhptO6


In 501Y.V1 (SE England variant), we can see 1 new sequence from France & Spain, each. The French sample has a travel history to the UK.

3 new sequences are from Israel (marked 1 & 2). Zooming in on '2' (divergence view) shows they are identical, indicating 1 introduction.

2/8


There are 7 new sequences from Ireland, found roughly in 5 places on the tree (4 are singletons, 3 cluster together - 2nd 'group' from the top).

These indicate at least 5 introductions, but we need to zoom in on the 3 that cluster to see more clearly.

3/8


Zooming in to the 3 that cluster together (divergence view), shows it can be difficult to distinguish introductions sometimes, especially as we expect strong travel links between the UK & Ireland, & may only be sampling the total diversity present in Ireland.

4/8


14 new sequences from Italy are scattered across the tree - some alone & some clustering.

Zooming in on a few clusters shows some seem to be linked, while others are harder to determine.
4 seem to be clearly linked as 1 introduction.

5/8
WORLD
Dr Emma Hodcroft
Dr Emma Hodcroft
@firefoxx66
The S:N501 build is now updated with data from 25th Jan.

Remember, you can always check on any country by just typing that country name in the 'Filter' box on the left menu!

1/18

https://t.co/FTjvV7T7wL


In the 501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7) variant, here are a few of the non-UK countries with new sequences in this variant, including Denmark, Italy, Spain, France, Portugal, Norway, Germany, the USA, South Kora, & Switzerland, & the UAE, Austria, & Czech Republic for the 1st time

2/18


Denmark has 52 new samples (some yellow), showing both separate introductions and further spread of existing local clusters.

3/18


Spain has 62 new sequences (orange & yellow). Many of these are separate introductions, and a few new sequences form distinct clusters. Some new sequences also cluster closely with older sequences (green).

4/18


France has 72 new sequences (orange & yellow). These show both separate introductions and clustering with older sequences.

5/18
FOR LATER READ

More from Society

Kate Julian
Kate Julian
@katejulian
1/ Something strange is happening with people’s sex lives. 20-somethings are having sex later and less frequently than previous generations. I spent several months digging into this for @theatlantic. https://t.co/5ehzmWY9wi


2/ This phenomenon—I’m calling it a Sex Recession—really surprised me. It seemed improbable in the age of Tinder, digital porn, and attitudes that are generally permissive and sex-positive.

3/ What’s happening isn’t exclusively American: Similar trends are being observed in other countries, including Japan, Australia, the U.K., Finland, and the Netherlands.


4/ One cause is obvious: Adults under 35 are less likely to be living with a partner than in recent decades, and more likely to be living with their parents—which, it’s safe to say, isn’t great for one’s sex life.

5/ But I also found other explanations, each with profound implications. The first, unsurprisingly, has to do with internet enticements. Netflix and other online entertainment may be substituting for sex.
SOCIETY
\U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8 SheNerd the Deplorable \U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8
🇺🇸 SheNerd the Deplora...
@shnerdly
For those traveling to DC on Jan. 6th, I'm a native to the area and I would like to share with you what I will be doing this time and what I have done for the last two rallies...1/
SOCIETY , TRAVEL
Advertisement
Arielle Selya
Arielle Selya
@ArielleSelya
1/14 How do e-cigarettes (ECs) affect cigarette smoking among youth? My new paper with @FloeFoxon simulates each scenario and finds out which one best matches actual trends... https://t.co/dBB7kcnTls @jgitchell @mikepesko @SwitchFinder @jkelovuori @TobPolicy @Clive_Bates

2/14 First, let's talk about why this question is so difficult to answer: COUNTERFACTUALS. We can't know the alternate-reality answers, like which smokers would have never started in a world without ECs, and which nonsmokers would now be smoking without ECs as an option.

3/14 So, the best we can do is use fancy/sophisticated methodologies to estimate what would have happened to youth smoking rates in the absence of ECs. In our case, simulation modeling


4/14 First, we look at the declining smoking trends *that were already happening* before ECs came (~2010), and project them into the present. This is our BASE-CASE SCENARIO about what smoking trends would be if ECs were never invented. Actual trends were LOWER than this base-case


5/14 Side note about terminology: We use the term “catalyst” instead of “gateway,” because “catalyst” is more precise about the claim we are modeling (that ECs are used first, and then causally lead to smoking). Whereas "gateway" can include other mechanisms like renormalization.
SOCIETY
Adedamola C. Adesina
Adedamola C. Adesina
@DamolaAdesina01
Faith Without Works is Dead!

Jam2:17 NLT - “So you see, faith by itself isn’t enough. Unless it produces good deeds, it is dead and useless.”

There is a growing message and doctrine in the church that seems to discountenance works and suggests that the only thing we need ...

... as Christians is just to ‘believe’ in Christ and that lack of good works does not affect one’s faith in Christ. My brother and sister, this is big lie from the pit of hell. It doesn’t matter who is saying it or how big their ministry is, it goes against the scriptures ...

... and is against the Truth.
Our opening scripture tells us that it is not enough to simply believe in Jesus; there must be accompanying works to prove it. In fact, Jam2:19 says even demons believe that there is one God and His only begotten Son is Jesus.

However, they don’t obey Him or submit to His will. In order words, submission to the Lordship of Jesus Christ and the total will of God is the proof of faith. Jesus said “not everyone who says to Me, ‘Lord, Lord,’ shall enter the kingdom of heaven, but he who does the will ...

... of My Father in heaven.”(Matt7:21) and “for whoever does the will of My Father in heaven is My brother and sister and mother.” (Matt12:50).

Rom3:28 NIV - “For we maintain that a person is justified by faith apart from the works of the law.”
SOCIETY
Youyang Gu
Youyang Gu
@youyanggu
I've seen many news articles cite that "the UK variant could be the dominant strain by March". This is emphasized by @CDCDirector.

While this will likely to be the case, this should not be an automatic cause for concern. Cases could still remain contained.

Here's how: 🧵

One of @CDCgov's own models has tracked the true decline in cases quite accurately thus far.

Their projection shows that the B.1.1.7 variant will become the dominant variant in March. But interestingly... there's no fourth wave. Cases simply level out:

https://t.co/tDce0MwO61


Just because a variant becomes the dominant strain does not automatically mean we will see a repeat of Fall 2020.

Let's look at UK and South Africa, where cases have been falling for the past month, in unison with the US (albeit with tougher restrictions):


Furthermore, the claim that the "variant is doubling every 10 days" is false. It's the *proportion of the variant* that is doubling every 10 days.

If overall prevalence drops during the studied time period, the true doubling time of the variant is actually much longer 10 days.

Simple example:

Day 0: 10 variant / 100 cases -> 10% variant
Day 10: 15 variant / 75 cases -> 20% variant
Day 20: 20 variant / 50 cases -> 40% variant

1) Proportion of variant doubles every 10 days
2) Doubling time of variant is actually 20 days
3) Total cases still drop by 50%
SOCIETY

You May Also Like

Emma Hilton
Emma Hilton
@FondOfBeetles
This is Kuinini ‘Nini’ Manumua, the woman who was ultimately displaced by inclusion of Laurel Hubbard.

She’s 21, and it would have been her first Olympics.
ALL
Emperor\U0001f451
Emperor👑
@EmperorBTC
Technical Analysis Masterclass- Part 2

'Entering the trade'

Entering a trade without ascertaining a certain things is gambling.

In this masterclass we will learn the pre-requisites to enter a trade.

DON'T ENTER A TRADE WITHOUT DETERMINNG THE FOLLOWING.

Please share.

We understand what reward to risk (popularly called risk to reward) is.
It will be denoted by R:R.

We will also try to bust a few myths about R:R and how to avoid losing trades.

Before entering a trade, you need to determine 3 things.

1. Entry trigger
2. Stop loss
3. Target

1. Entry trigger = Reasons for entering a trade. There could be multiple reasons or a single reason for entry.

Generally a set of reasons AKA confluence is a higher probability trade and a generally a safer entry.

Example of an entry trigger.


2. Stop Loss.

The price in the opposite direction of the trade where the trade is exited, at a loss.

At this level, the reason for the entry becomes invalidated according to TA and the price can then move in the opposite direction, probabilistically.


3. Target is the possible price level that the asset might touch based on previous trends or confluence AND where a possible reversal could occur.

Target is the next path of least resistance from where the price might reverse.

We will always ONLY use TA to determine all 3.
TRADING
Advertisement
\uc2e0\ub150\uc758\uc0ac\ub098\uc774
신념의사나이...
@Belposto_korea
The RV and the Redemption Funds.

ALL Exchanged Currencies as well as all Zim Redemption funds will be placed in the accounts they set up in the Quantum Financial System./1

Absolutely none of these funds will be placed in a Bank at the redemption appointment. Bank computers cannot be programmed to transfer Digital Gold Certificates./2

The QFS can and will transplant funds into a bank account as has been explained earlier,/3

so a person can transfer funds to their own bank account but the desirability will become less and less as the banks go into receivership and their customer’s deposits are confiscated to avoid the Bank’s demise./4

Which bank can compete with the QFS when the QFS is free, secure, private, and stable? One of the major problems in the transition will be the use of Debit Cards for merchant purchases. Will VISA or Mastercard be available?/5
FINANCE
Nikita Poojary
Nikita Poojary
@niki_poojary
One of the most successful stock trader with special focus on cash stocks and who has a very creative mind to look out for opportunities in dark times

Covering one of the most unique set ups: Extended moves & Reversal plays

Time for a 🧵 to learn the above from @iManasArora

What qualifies for an extended move?

30-40% move in just 5-6 days is one example of extended move

How Manas used this info to book


Post that the plight of the


Example 2: Booking profits when the stock is extended from 10WMA

10WMA =


Another hack to identify extended move in a stock:

Too many green days!

Read
SCREENERS , A SCREENER
Khatvaanga
Khatvaanga
@khatvaanga
Sri Gurubhyo Namaha.


After the phenomenon called Sri Chandrasekhara Bharati came another one - Sri Abhinava Vidya Teertha [1954-1989] the 35th Jagadguru. Srinivasa was born on Nov 13, 1917. He was initiated into Sanyasa by Sri Chandrasekhara Bharati in 1931. He was Jagadguru for 35 years.

He was chosen and specifically trained to take over Peetadhipatyam from Sri Mahaswami. He is majorly responsible for the way Sringeri currently is. He built various buildings for devotees, Gajashala, Gooshala etc.

Acharya on conversions:
Once a person approached Sri Acharya that some other religions are trying to convert Hindus and requested Sri AVT to do prevent these conversions.

AVT replied - what do u mean by religion? Religion i.e. mata is related to 'mati' or intellect.
Caste is called 'jAti' which is related to janana or birth.
Ex- breed of a cow. we cannot change its qualities to resemble another breed by changing its name.
ALL