The most important question now on the mind of all analysts and traders. Is this a bear market rally or is this the start of a bull move. Retweeting this as I will need a few tweets to explain my view

Everyone knows the HH-HL or LH-LL as per Dow theory. This can be a bit confusing on how one marks the Highs and Lows. Long back, I picked up this trick from one of the neo-Dow theorists on what to do in scenarios like this
Simply plot a 5 period exponential moving average on a different panel. A 5-EMA simply shows you a running weekly perspective and kind of smoothens the price where a single spike high/low is not of that much importance
You will see this 5-ema also making HH.HL.LH.LL. So now, rather than focusing on the highs/lows on the charts, focusing on highs/lows on the 5-ema gives a cleaner perspective
As per this charts, unless the 5-ema now closes above 17540 ( the ema, not Nifty price) I will not play this as a bull market. I will deal with this market as a counter move against the major bear trend
More about Dow theory here :

https://t.co/9gBIjv1iqY
In a strong bull market, the 5-ema moves in tandem with price. The tops are broken almost at same time, max a few days apart and sometimes in advance. See the marked examples.
That is not the case now, which holds me back from calling this a clean bull market
Since end March 2020, we have had the first clean breakdown of lows and a Lower High - Lower Low scenario
The common consensus is that moving averages, whether simple or exponential are lagging indicators. So explain this, the 5-ema crosses previous high even before the price crosses the previous high. This is a massively bullish signal
#ITC

More from Subhadip Nandy

Perhaps you have the idea that calling me " 1 lot Nandy" is somehow derogatory and a easy poke at me. Allow me to explain why I look at this moniker as a badge of honour


I have traded 1 lot continuously twice in my life. The first in 2003 after I blew up on my INFY trade. I traded 1 lot ACC fut consistently and made 50k in a month

The 2nd time in 2013. When I suffered continuous losses for 5-6 months due to a variety of psychological issues. Then I traded 1 lot Nifty options consistently for 3 months. After that 2 lots for next 1 month and slowly increased

I have shared these two incidents on my various interveiws and regularly share this in detail with my handholding students when I talk about trading psychology.

This logic of trading 1 lot to iron out trading issues I learnt from the interview of Anthony Saliba, who traded 1 lot in options for 6 months. BTW, Saliba was the only options trader to have been profiled on the original Market Wizards ( I read his interview and used his logic)

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