Since lot of discussions on ITC, had a simple look at the chart. With each passing day, the probability of a large breakout increases. Watch the behaviour of MFI, but wait for prices to trade above the trendline with volumes
More from Subhadip Nandy
Ok here is the explanation. Grab a cup of coffee and read on. If you have not read/noticed this, you will see intraday options movement in a new light.
Say we have two options, one 50 delta ATM options and another 30 delta OTM option. Normally for a 100 point move, the ATM option will move 50 points and the OTM option will move 30 points. But in a high volatile environment, the OTM option will also move nearly 50 points
To understand why this happens, first understand why an ATM option is 50 delta. An ATM option has the probability of 50% of expiring as ITM. The price just has to close a rupee above the strike for the CE to be ITM and vice versa for PEs
Now think of a highly volatile day like today. If someone is asked where the BNF will close for the day or expiry, no one can answer. BNF can close freakin anywhere, That makes every option of an equal probability of being ITM. So all options have a 50% probability of being ITM
Hence, when a huge volatile move starts, all OTM options behave like ATM options. This phenomenon was first observed in the Black Monday crash of 1987 at Wall Street, which also gave rise to the volatility skew/smirk
In a high IV environment or when the market is very volatile
— Subhadip Nandy (@SubhadipNandy16) January 21, 2022
" OTM options will behave like ATM options", one will get almost the same delta movement
Say we have two options, one 50 delta ATM options and another 30 delta OTM option. Normally for a 100 point move, the ATM option will move 50 points and the OTM option will move 30 points. But in a high volatile environment, the OTM option will also move nearly 50 points
To understand why this happens, first understand why an ATM option is 50 delta. An ATM option has the probability of 50% of expiring as ITM. The price just has to close a rupee above the strike for the CE to be ITM and vice versa for PEs
Now think of a highly volatile day like today. If someone is asked where the BNF will close for the day or expiry, no one can answer. BNF can close freakin anywhere, That makes every option of an equal probability of being ITM. So all options have a 50% probability of being ITM
Hence, when a huge volatile move starts, all OTM options behave like ATM options. This phenomenon was first observed in the Black Monday crash of 1987 at Wall Street, which also gave rise to the volatility skew/smirk
My presentation on Money Management was based on a lot of sources as I mentioned. For traders interested on those sources , here they are
#OptimalF
Portfolio Management Formulas: Mathematical Trading Methods for the Futures, Options, and Stock Markets by Ralph Vince
The Mathematics of Money Management: Risk Analysis Techniques for Traders by Ralph Vince
#SecureF
#FixedRatio
The Trading Game: Playing by the Numbers to Make Millions by Ryan Jones
https://t.co/U0c65EbEog.
#OptimalF
Portfolio Management Formulas: Mathematical Trading Methods for the Futures, Options, and Stock Markets by Ralph Vince
The Mathematics of Money Management: Risk Analysis Techniques for Traders by Ralph Vince
#SecureF
#FixedRatio
The Trading Game: Playing by the Numbers to Make Millions by Ryan Jones
https://t.co/U0c65EbEog.
More from Itc
#ITC Is this last leg of downside or game over?🙆
Key points : 👇
~ RSI breakout retest in weekly chart
~ HH &HL pattern ,Price action still bullish
~ Huge support as per ratio chart.
#CNXFMCG #Nifty
Key points : 👇
~ RSI breakout retest in weekly chart
~ HH &HL pattern ,Price action still bullish
~ Huge support as per ratio chart.
#CNXFMCG #Nifty
#ITC I drilled further by #CNXFMCG index
— Pranay Prasun (@PranayPrasun) July 3, 2021
Keypoints :
~ Near huge support as per weekly chart
~ #RSI Breakout retest #Ratiochart
Conclusion : Bounceback expected
Timeframe : Weekly , So please avoid daily movement .@piyushchaudhry @gogrithekhabri @Deishma @pratyush_rohit https://t.co/PKbi7mdoam pic.twitter.com/MUWBSX2LlB