My SCREENING TECHNIQUE Based #hypothetical #Portfolio
6th Upd - 26Sep2021

📍Purely based on my Financial Data Screening !

NO TIPS!
NO MEDIA!

📌#Screener Names in👇🧵summarizes Fundamental, Momentum, Valuation traits hence saves tons of analysis time.

@Vivek_Investor

1

Q&A 161

Read this 🧵to understand ROE, PE & relationship between them.👇

PE expansion to bridge the Gap (if any) between ROE & PE.

RT if you find this helpful.

1

ROE is PE's brother from another mother / Half-brother (Sautela Bhai)

@Atulsingh_asan

2

ROE & PE definition continued..

Keep an eye on Equations !

3

Establishing Relationship between ROE (profitability) & PE (valuation).

Replace Market Capitalization with Book value in Earnings Yield (or PE) we get ROE.

4

Understanding ROE & PE deeper with Dupont Analysis.

5

@unseenvalue #Screened few businesses trading at single digit MCap/CFO.

I made a mistake in above list.
Apologies ! It is accidental discovery of businesses trading at single digit MCap / Cash End of Last Year.

🌟Here is businesses #screened for MCap/CFO.

AXTEL INDUSTRIES #Thread

Presenting my study for educational purpose 👇

@Atulsingh_asan - I know you have studied #Axtel in very detail your additional points/thought process/comments will be great addition to this effort !

1

SSGR Analysis !

It gives +ive vibes for future growth. Further the Working Capital management & it's Free Cash Flow further strengthen the view.

SSGR (24%) > Current & Historical Sales Growth

2

#AXTEL Retained Earnings vs Market Cap vs EPS Growth

In last 10 yrs ->

📌For every Rs 1 Retained by Axtel it has generated 17x of Market Cap (Big Boost for shareholders)👍👌

📌EPS Growth has been 7% higher than RE growth 👍

3

📌Last 10yrs (incl TTM) in Nutshell (Screenshot) ->

Paying handsome dividend for last 3 yrs.

Remarkable improvement in Receivable Days & NPM.

4

OPM has considerably improved 13% to 23%.👌

Last 5yr Sales Growth has picked up. Though as per management due to Lock down they couldn't ship orders in Mar 20 but still their Recent Sales growth is 23%.👌

Profit growth 👌

5

DrVijayMalik_ValueGuru_Checklist
Ist Upd - 05Jul2020

#Thread

A small tribute to @drvijaymalik on the occasion of Guru Purnima🙏

#valueinvesting #stocks
#SalesGrowth #OPM #npm
#CurrentRatio #DebtToEquity
#SSGR #MarginOfSafety #MaxPEtoPay #EarningsYield
#FII
#MaithanAlloy

1n

The Final Checklist for Buying Stocks !

Financial Checklist !

Taking Maithan Alloys as Sample Stock !

Tax Payout Shown in 1n (above).

2n

Valuation Checklist !

Earnings Yield > 10Yr G-Sec Yield. Higher the difference better it is.

Max PE to Pay calculated on the basis of Prevailing Current Interest Rate in the Economy (10Yr G-Sec Yield)

3n

Business & Industry Checklist !

10yr Cumulative PAT vs CFO. Ideally both should be similar or CFO may be little higher (Maithan Alloy Example)

Creation of Value for shareholders -
10Yr Increase in Market Cap > 10yr Increase in Retained Earnings (Maithan Alloy Example)

4n

Management Checklist & Other Business Parameters !

Most of this needs to be done manually. Take it as homework🙂

Maithan Alloy FII (1.87%) & Promoter Shareholding(74.99%).

Less FII better it is.

Check Change in Promoter Holding in last 3yrs (insider Buying) in 1n (above)

5n

(1/3)

I am using only one indicator in the chart.
i.e DC(20) = Donchain Channel
I use 3 min chart and the DC period is 20, so DC high is basically the last 1 hour high & DC low is the last 1 hour low.
The middle line is the median of high and low.

(2/3)

Donchian channels are mainly used to identify the breakout of nifty/BNF.
We can take directional bias based on the indicator.
If nifty is breaking DC high, can take bullish view.
if it is breaking DC down, can take bearish view.
if it is in between, can trade range-bound.

(3/3)

We can monitor nifty/banknifty futures with volume along with DC.
If the volume is 1.5 to 2 times the average volume and if DC high/low is taken out then it can be a strong bullish/bearish signal.

This is in response to the question by @unseenvalue

If I had to buy 1 stock today, anywhere in the world, no avg. up or down, 5 year holding period (I will make that as 10 year for thesis to play out)

Since I track mainly Indian equities, restricting the choice to this space

Few points to look for
1. Strong macro tailwind rather than headwind, huge growth runway for company/segment. It can't be in a niche space & demand must not be easily substitutable
2. Strong Biz Model, high growth curve (15%+ over the period), strong ROE profile (hurdle rate 20%)

3. Low or no leverage, efficient capital allocation, (read minimal or zero fresh dilution requirements), strong cash flows and correspondingly high dividend payout ratios (consistent dividend history) and finally strong moat and with limited regulatory involvement / no reg issues

4. Promoter quality and intention must be beyond reproach, proven management with skin in the game
5. Capability to manage disruption, and if possible to even profit from it. If you can't be disrupted easily, you will eventually adapt your game to gain scale

6. There must be a possibility of non-linear growth if the scale-up hypothesis gets proven right. It's like an FD with low fixed return plus significant upside optionality. Multiple revenue streams / margin levers / IP that can provide non linearity in growth

If you are a beginner and don't have any idea why the market is falling continuously.

Read Stan Weinstein's Book.
Read What is "Stage 4" and believe me there is no better explanation than that I found till today.