Technical Analysis and 3 Strategies to deploy for Aggressive, Moderate, and Conservative Traders.

🧵Weekly Bank Nifty Analysis for 7th July Expiry:

You'll learn multi-timeframe technical analysis for the current week from this thread.

Also, there are 3 strategies one may deploy according to their risk appetite:

1. Aggressive Traders (1.6%)
2. Moderate Risk Traders (0.93%)
3. Low-Risk Traders (0.6%)
1. Technicals

Let's start with the technicals. We'll look at:

• Weekly charts
• Daily charts
• Hourly/60 min charts
• 15 min charts
1. Weekly-

• The past 2 weeks indicate buyers have entered and are trying to lift the market up.

• These buyers would be under stress if the last week's low of 33080 breaks on the downside.

• Till that low doesn't break, those buyers are going to be in control.
2. Daily:

• If we get a daily close above the 34150 level, a higher high (HH) will be formed, and I would be very bullish on the markets.

• Friday's candle is a big green candle, and if it's low breaks then I would be bearish.

• There is no clear and obvious pattern yet.
3. Hourly

• Since we are still in a range, we should be selling strangles with slightly higher put premiums.

• Go bullish if we get a clear higher high on the hourly chart.

• Bearish on a close below 33080 and then aggressively sell calls as the buying will be rejected
4. 15 mins

• If we open flat, I am expecting a bullish continuation move.

• If small gap up, then continuation on the upside

• If a gap down greater than 300 points, the buyers would be trapped and would square off their longs, which would lead to further selling.
What strategies to deploy?

1. Aggressive Traders

Can sell strangles of 32000 puts and 34900 calls & manage.

ROI is around 1.60%
2. Moderate Risk Traders

Can sell strangles of 31600 puts and 35200 calls & manage them.

The ROI is approximately 0.93%.
3. Conservative Traders

Can sell strangles of 31200 PE and 35400 CE.

ROI is approximately 0.60%.

It would be best if you guys were targeting 2% per month and playing far away from spot levels of BNF if you're conservative.

4 expires per month to make 0.50% each week.
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Happy learning to everyone!

More from Aditya Todmal

A THREAD ON @SarangSood

Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.

Have covered:
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
2. Workbook
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen

1. Keeps following volatility super closely.

Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.

Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.


2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.


3. If you're an options seller then sell only when volatility is dropping, there is a high probability of you making the right trade and getting profit as a result

He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.


4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega

Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.
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