BC OPTIONSLEARNINGS
Saved by @SAnngeri

A THREAD

Topic: HOW TO TRADE IN RISING PREMIUMS SCENARIO

Option sellers specially Straddle sellers feel that rising premiums give them excellent opportunity to make easy money. So what they are seeing is the theta aspect of options & ignoring the delta/gamma/vega forces.

1/

 With rising premiums come high delta moves. There is a reason why premiums are all increasing up in the first place. High uncertainty & fear is what's controlling the markets during such times. So a volatile 200 point move in nifty is always on the cards.

2/
Adjusting during such delta moves involves high slippages. Such costs go in our system & are irrecoverable. So if the ATM straddle is around 400 & after 200 point downmove, the next straddle is at 450 & the loss is not just 50points but compounded much more.

3/
Also there are chances that there is no decay throughout the day. So a straddle seller has to take that heavy risk of carrying it forward & chances of gap openings are high during such times. If converted into Ironfly, then the cost of the wings is too expensive.

4/
Thus cutting down the initial credit significantly.

There will also be very few instances when premiums don't fall till expiry day. So with each delta move the cost of holding a straddle gets accumulated & pressure keeps mounting for the stubborn option sellers.

5/
So what should be done during such times?

Compulsive straddle sellers can keep a close SL & do quick scalping. But such profits don't give you much satisfaction, as speculation element is high in such trades.

6/
Better way is to trade directional. If you have a little sense of market direction, then one can make good use of rising premiums.

There are many option strategies like Ratios, Ladder, even far OTM naked/spread selling which can give good opportunity to take advantage.

7/
The advantage can also be taken without directional knowledge. The bias that the premiums will fall in one direction & rise in another. Example if premiums are rising in a downmove, then Call Ratios or OTM calls can be sold. It's because they will not rise much in an upmove.

8/
All said, sometimes premiums do fall heavily during such times. But it's better to not try to sell them speculating that the top is made. It's better to wait it out & let the premiums settle a little. Then one can enter cautiously & with decent gains go agressive again.

9/
So basic crux is to find an objective system to follow the market. There are lot of forces at play in option selling, apart from THETA decay.

If one can find a way to forsee how volatility or direction is going to play out, then it's a different ball game altogether.

10/
Idea is to not get caught up in wild moves when premiums are unstable. If we do get caught, then we are not in a good vantage point to take advantage of inflated premiums.

Patience is the key & being ready to let go of some premium decay. Don't get caught up in FOMO.

11/
A good example is today (18/06/21). Premiums were giving repititive spikes since morning, with a big spike at 11am. The spikes were only in the downmove which is important observation.

In this scenario, we could have sold inflated OTM calls, which were not falling.

12/
We can also use strategies like credit spreads or skewed call ratios. So we are trading direction here with the premise that premiums will fall in the upmove.

When market bounced back calls also fell at first. If market starts rising, we can start neutralizing our position.

13/
We can do it in two ways:

• If IVs are falling then sell otm puts
• If IVs are increasing then buy higher delta calls to make Call ratios

The above example is when we want to trade directional & take advantage of rising premiums.

14/
For non-directional best was to not enter till 11:30am. We can't really know where the top will be made. So let the dust settle & premiums to start falling. Then we can slowly build our position & ride the falling IVs.

I traded in both the ways in different counters.

15/
The risk was IV spike in upmove for my directional position, for which i would have bought higher delta calls to protect.

Risk for my non-directional straddle was an IV spike at EOD, for which i exited early (much regret), as profit received was high in short time.

16/

More from Sarang Sood

Sarang Sood
Sarang Sood
@SarangSood
FINDING EDGE IN OPTIONS

24/08/15: Nifty gap down 250 points & another 250 after that. Previous few months return gone, but since I'm quick to take my losses, was saved from ruin. Before that my only edge in option selling was adjustments & my forever edge of following PA. (1/n)

I soon realised that theta decay with sound adjustments is not an edge, which i earlier thought was & which gave me good returns over the years. After that i went deeper in understanding volatility behaviour, how/where it manifests & all the discrepancies in option chain. (2/n)

With finding edge in logistics i mean how to keep the greeks in check, SL in place & optimum ways of adjustments with minimum slippages. So the main aim here is to write theta without following vol behaviour & having any actual knowledge of what's going on in the markets. (3/n)

A dedicated trader can learn all this in few years & it is something which is 'obvious' to become successful. But majority can't reach this level, as this also requires consistent hustle in live markets. All the seminar/webinar business teaches you till this level only.(4/n)

If you get passed this level though, the real work starts, when you have to find your real edge. This can't be taught in a webinar. It needs serious introspection of your trading skills, psychology & strategies in use, which ultimately allow you to book excellent profits. (5/n)
TRADING
Sarang Sood
Sarang Sood
@SarangSood
@javia_savan You answered it yourself 🙂
Adjustment cost is way too high for bnf. Sometimes bnf does exceed nifty in vol crush, but nifty overall is more consistent.
TRADING
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Sarang Sood
Sarang Sood
@SarangSood
THREAD ON IRONFLY

These days the most preferred strategy for option sellers due to improved margins is IRONFLY. It's essentially a short straddle with long strangle. Long strangle acting as 'WINGS', which help in capping the unlimited risk associated with a short straddle.(1/n)

You can also view the position as a combination of Cal & Put credit spreads, if that makes it more easy for you.

There are 3 important things to understand while trading this strategy:

1) Initial size of the Wings
2) Risk Management
3) Adjustments

(2/n)

Since we are selling an ATM straddle, the 1st question is how far our wings should be? Ideally i sell .50 delta straddle & buy .20 or .10 OTM strangle, depending on my view on volatility. So the distance of wings depends on the IV setup. Higher the IVs, greater the distance.(3/n)

If you don't understand greeks, then ideally with 30 days to expiry (dte), wings should be around 300pts either side. If your trading in weekly then it should be not more than 200pts. Higher the premiums, higher the distance as we have more cushion of theta. (4/n)

It is important to understand that we need to reduce the distance of wings with time so as to manage our RISK in gap openings or sudden volatile move. So for eg. if you started with 300pt wings with 30dte, the wings wouldn't give the same protection when there is 7dte. (5/n)
FOR LATER READ , ALL
Sarang Sood
Sarang Sood
@SarangSood
My previous b'day which fell on expiry day was in 2010. On that day Nifty straddle opened at 45. Day range of nifty was around 30pts :)

(High 5415, Low 5380)

At that time:

•Didn't know the word Straddle though i used to trade them regularly
•Greeks existence wasn't known

•Adjustments felt like a superpower
•Everyday theta decay was a birth right
•Any strategy thought off felt like a personal invention
•Listening to people warning about unlimited loss in option selling was normal
•Making unlimited gain in long straddle seemed a possibility

•Volumes & Oi were closely tracked
•Overnight positions without hedge was a normal routine

All the above points have been changed over the years. But the underlying market psychology & following the price action still remains the same.

Thank you all for the warm wishes 🙏
ALL
Sarang Sood
Sarang Sood
@SarangSood
THREAD ON DELTA (The most important GREEK)

Many traders don't indulge in understanding GREEKS because they think they are very complicated.

There are 4 primary greeks:

Delta
Gamma
Theta
Vega

In my experience, understanding DELTA is enough to take benefit of greeks.(1/n)

Delta measures the rate of change of options price based on the directional movement of the underlying.

So this means we can know in advance (theoretically) how much an option will move with the underlying & so we can prepare our strategies accordingly. (2/n)

Value of delta varies between 0 & 1 for calls and -1 & 0 for puts. This figure tells how much an option price will change, when the underlying moves 1 point. So example a delta of .2 of call indicates that for every 1 point change in the underlying, the price will move .2 (3/n)

For option writers who want to trade in neutral strategies like straddle, strangle, ratios, calendar etc, delta can be very helpful. So be it any complex strategy, knowing the NET DELTA can give you an idea of how your strategy will perform in different scenarios. (4/n)

Net delta is just the sum of the deltas of all the bull options (call+ & put-) minus the bear options (call- & put+).

So if we can track this, we will always be in the know of how much exposed our position is. It makes it easier then to adjust our position. (5/n)
TRADING

More from Optionslearnings

Aditya Todmal
Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal
The best spreads trader on Twitter: @Ronak_Unadkat

He trades in Nifty & Bank Nifty via spreads majorly.

In the Jainam Broking Speech, he shared how he trades debit and credit spreads:

Here's a breakdown of his 10 step method: 🧵

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

1. Why trade via spreads?

Overnight risk will be always capped
Limited Risk will keep you cool
Hedge our position

Strictly not to do for margin, as that will lead to overleveraging.

Traders Sell option for 100 and buy 10 rs option.

That is for margin reduction, not a spread.


2. Circuit:

If the market opens at the lower circuit or upper circuit, then our loss should be limited.

Eg - Expiry Trading on the 24th Feb Expiry

The market gapped down & traders lost huge sums of money.

Some lost 15% or 20% of their capital in a 4% index move.

If in 4% people are losing so huge then imagine if Modi says black money is back, we will open at an upper circuit.

If India-Pakistan tension news comes again we will open at a lower circuit.

In a 4% index move, people lost 10%, so in the case of a circuit, they will lose 50%.

To recover a 50% loss on capital, you need to make 100% returns with the leftover capital to break even.

In these cases, spreads cover your risk.

Even he lost 3-4% of capital on 24th but it is easy to recover in 1-2 months.
OPTIONSLEARNINGS , ALL , OPTIONS
itrade(DJ)
itrade(DJ)
@ITRADE191
https://t.co/5ySV9CK7yx
OPTIONSLEARNINGS
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Aditya Todmal
Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal
Here are my TOP 10 BEST TWEETS of the week: 10th September.🧵

• Psychological mistakes to avoid
• Iron fly strategy
• Calenders strategy
• 3 great books on trading stocks.
• Various risks and how to manage.
• How breakout stocks behave.
• Solutions for peak margin.

Psychological mistakes to


Iron fly strategy


Calenders strategy to give you consistent


Compounding is
OPTIONSLEARNINGS
Aditya Trivedi
Aditya Trivedi
@itsAdityaT
BENEFITS OF OPTION SELLING

Most of the successful traders here are option sellers.

Ever wondered why?

Why we have chosen option selling?

How to decide what strategies to use?

THIS IS THE ONLY THREAD YOU'LL EVER NEED!

Find out below

1: Theta decay

The biggest reason and one of the prime reasons is the theta decay.

Option sellers always have an advantage because the as time passes, the option premium falls even if the underlying instrument doesn't move.

2: Being wrong and still making money.

We as option sellers can be wrong with our market view and still end up making money because of the power of theta decay and adjustments to some extent,

3:Playing directional view

Option selling also enables us to take a directional view. Infact, directional view along with theta decay makes it a solid combination.

Debit spreads and credit spreads works great for a directional view.

4: Playing Neutral view

We can make money in option selling even if the market doesn't move as the otm options will go to 0 with the help of theta decay. It's the most fascinating thing.
OPTIONSLEARNINGS , ALL
Van Ilango (JustNifty)
Van Ilango (JustNifty)
@JustNifty
Let me apply @Bijay_reborn 's strategies in options for some days and then share them.
2 Strategies I liked:
1. Plot ATM week CE/PE charts with VWAP & OI Change. Buy when prices move past VWAP while OI starts to move down.
2. Plot ATM Mth CE/ PE with AVWAP. If above, buy wk CE/PE
OPTIONSLEARNINGS , ALL

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