I see a lot of traders following classical chart patterns . Being a pattern follower myself for some years , here is my advice to them as I feel some pointers will improve their accuracy . Again , this is not the only correct way but what I have learnt from my experiences
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The most important question now on the mind of all analysts and traders. Is this a bear market rally or is this the start of a bull move. Retweeting this as I will need a few tweets to explain my view
Everyone knows the HH-HL or LH-LL as per Dow theory. This can be a bit confusing on how one marks the Highs and Lows. Long back, I picked up this trick from one of the neo-Dow theorists on what to do in scenarios like this
Simply plot a 5 period exponential moving average on a different panel. A 5-EMA simply shows you a running weekly perspective and kind of smoothens the price where a single spike high/low is not of that much importance
You will see this 5-ema also making HH.HL.LH.LL. So now, rather than focusing on the highs/lows on the charts, focusing on highs/lows on the 5-ema gives a cleaner perspective
As per this charts, unless the 5-ema now closes above 17540 ( the ema, not Nifty price) I will not play this as a bull market. I will deal with this market as a counter move against the major bear trend
Is Nifty bullish, or bearish?
— AP (@ap_pune) March 19, 2022
Replies MUST be ONLY with charts, not just 'views', no Russia Ukraine, crude, gold etc.
Can be levels....abv/below
Just technicals....maybe with trend lines, indicators or any other study (EW, harmonics etc)
Charts can be daily, weekly or monthly.
Everyone knows the HH-HL or LH-LL as per Dow theory. This can be a bit confusing on how one marks the Highs and Lows. Long back, I picked up this trick from one of the neo-Dow theorists on what to do in scenarios like this
Simply plot a 5 period exponential moving average on a different panel. A 5-EMA simply shows you a running weekly perspective and kind of smoothens the price where a single spike high/low is not of that much importance
You will see this 5-ema also making HH.HL.LH.LL. So now, rather than focusing on the highs/lows on the charts, focusing on highs/lows on the 5-ema gives a cleaner perspective
As per this charts, unless the 5-ema now closes above 17540 ( the ema, not Nifty price) I will not play this as a bull market. I will deal with this market as a counter move against the major bear trend
This is actually an interesting question and a correct observation. Many people before you also have made this observation, so I am going to explain this the best I can
I am trading since badla days. There being long meant you had to pay badla / interest and being short meant you received badla. Similar to an options buyer having theta burn and an options seller being theta positive. So the bias among pros were being short bit
Now, as of now I am an options buyer. All my strategies are geared towards options buying, so I have a theta burn continuosly. I do use strategies to cover that a bit, but still the burn is there
Now, let's consider how an options buyer makes money. His enemy is theta, vega can be friend or enemy ( coming to this in next tweet) , Delta is whether his view is right or wrong
Now say I am bullish on BNF and I buy calls and I am directionally correct . As BNF goes up, generally IV will decrease. This leads to a double whammy.
1. Vega hurts me
2. Theta decay increases.
So, the position does give money, but slowly
Ek baat to hai dada, u like mandi over teji.. Don't u... I mean u play both sides bt still... Im ryt \U0001f911\U0001f911
— VaibhavSharma (@vaibhav2631) September 23, 2022
I am trading since badla days. There being long meant you had to pay badla / interest and being short meant you received badla. Similar to an options buyer having theta burn and an options seller being theta positive. So the bias among pros were being short bit
Now, as of now I am an options buyer. All my strategies are geared towards options buying, so I have a theta burn continuosly. I do use strategies to cover that a bit, but still the burn is there
Now, let's consider how an options buyer makes money. His enemy is theta, vega can be friend or enemy ( coming to this in next tweet) , Delta is whether his view is right or wrong
Now say I am bullish on BNF and I buy calls and I am directionally correct . As BNF goes up, generally IV will decrease. This leads to a double whammy.
1. Vega hurts me
2. Theta decay increases.
So, the position does give money, but slowly