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Morning. And its Groundhog Day today. https://t.co/gRs4Dc8RH2

 Some useful threads will follow, first on the Northern Ireland protocol, where unfettered is still being defined... https://t.co/YHPJdNC4mf
And on fish and level playing field. The latter seems, has always seemed, the most problematic, because the UK has apparently ruled out any compromise on shared minumum levels even if not automatic. That would be a deal breaker, but seems... unnecessary. https://t.co/PCtI1olTOV
Your reminder closing complex deals is never easy. But there are ways to facilitate and EU is good at doing this if you meet their red lines. But still the biggest concern that the UK never understood level playing field terms are fundamental to the EU. https://t.co/WkQHyvMzMt
In the UK, one man's decision. Allegedly backed by a Cabinet who in reality will be quite happy to blame the PM either way. The temptation to send Michael Gove to seal the deal and end his leadership ambitions must be there... https://t.co/T12k9zpVpw
As it happens... https://t.co/dOeSREAAYg
For what it's worth it seems likely that there was some kite flying last night to see what the reaction to a deal might be on the UK side. It... didn't go well. Which is the fear of those on the EU side - that Johnson has talked up sovereignty too far for reasonable compromise.
I might be on some media or other later today talking about my favourite christmas reci.... if only. Depending on how many updates there have been since I might be optimistic or pessimistic, but still on the fence. https://t.co/YVb4oBZLke
Oh yes, 24 days left to the biggest one day change in UK trading terms in history. Just the £2 billion of trade per day at stake. https://t.co/NEdPJzysvZ
Picture for those who were missing their Brexit flowcharts. From what I can see (and Jon also suggests) today has the right elements for final deal choreography with Gove in Brussels, and quite possibly also therefore a no-deal announcement. https://t.co/KunRWGig4x
Has always been my belief. Though rather raises the issue of only listening to those who won't challenge your views. https://t.co/KdM68PKsif
Right. If today ends with a statement saying the PM and vdL are going to make another last effort to reach a deal after all of this I think the Brexit watchers finally have to stage an intervention. https://t.co/aUIhkJbVMA
Fundamentally UK politics (on all sides, but differently) cannot reconcile leaving the EU but still being in Europe. Listen to Norwegian, Swiss, or Turkish officials. A horrible experience, they say, when you always want to leave the table but can't. https://t.co/U92sZcHKZy
I think we can safely dismiss any Barnier statement on deadlines given the record to date. We're long past the point any agreement can receive proper scrutiny or business be ready to implement it. https://t.co/ai4F7qd53y
UK-EU talks Wednesday deadline latest https://t.co/H2nNksRgTc
On this at least the UK and EU are united, against their own businesses. Nobody, it is clear, is in any kind of hurry.

Because, hey, there are still 16 working days until huge new barriers are erected to the world's second largest trading relationship.

https://t.co/WPX9uOUNiE
The problem again - EU and UK will have to upset some of their domestic constituencies to get a deal. Neither seem prepared to do so. But neither want to walk away either. Stalemate. https://t.co/mSewDGwJRR

More from David Henig

David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
We need to talk about UK politics. More specifically we need to talk about the absence of opposition to a no-deal Brexit risking Scottish independence, Northern Irish peace, the end of the mass market car industry, more expensive food, and damaged relations with US and EU 1/n


Project fear and the red wall. The first meaning that every serious threat, such as that of Nissan that their plant will be unsustainable, is dismissed with little discussion. The red wall, apparently so angry with Labour about the EU they are afraid to have a position. 2/

Because 'sovereignty' apparently. But a particularly nefarious form of sovereignty in which the normal kind of things you discuss in a Free Trade Agreement - shared rules, access to waters - become when discussed with the EU unacceptable infringements and threats. 3/

You note in the UK we aren't having a discussion on what level playing field rules or access to fishing waters might be acceptable. Or normal. Or even what we might want, like shared increased commitments on climate change. No, all rumours. Evil EU. Worse French. 4/

Those who follow closely see incredible briefings in the papers, like today claiming the EU demand for raising minimum shared standards was only raised on Thursday, treated as fact. This was known months ago. But the media too often just reports the spin as fact. 5/
POLITICS
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Just bringing together my various bits and pieces on the UK-EU. The first reactions - a significant agreement...

Winners and losers of the UK-EU deal.

Why this was always going to be a problem - regulatory soverignty v free trade involves trade offs...

Going back to mid-2019, why the deal the UK wanted from the EU, the same benefits with none of the costs, couldn't be available.

More recently, why the Brexit dream is dying - because it wasn't designed to deal with a situation where we had to choose between trade with the EU and freedom.
BREXIT
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David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
There is a sense of disbelief about the new trade problems between Great Britain and the EU / Northern Ireland. Which we need to lose. This is the new normal. And we face a difficult period of adjustment - immediate paperwork needs, and to longer term uncompetitiveness.

As we trade folk might have mentioned before, outside of the single market and the customs union of the EU, problems at borders are normal. Delays common. Great job of the Brexit supporters to find supposed experts claiming otherwise, but now back to reality...

Such delays at borders were in fact part of the origin of the single market, in the days when the Conservatives didn't see a contradiction between free markets and sovereignty. Such delays weren't really compatible with a supposed common market. So, the single market...

The delays and individual issues will ebb and flow. There will be new regulatory requirements in EU and UK affecting different products. But for UK and EU business as a whole it will mean UK-EU trade is more costly and less predictable, and there will be economic adjustment.

To put it bluntly, some UK firms will go out of business due to new border barriers. Some EU firms will stop supplying the UK, at a cost increase to UK consumers but a possible new opportunity for firms. This adjustment will take some time though.
EU
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Small business in particular struggling with new Brexit red tape. Entirely predictable, and a function of a world trade system distorted against smaller traders. Stay with me a short while as Brexit threadmeister and story author @pmdfoster may say... 1/

The nub of the issue is the extra costs for most exports, whether this is paperwork or meeting different regulatory requirements. A fixed cost per exported load inevitably adds a higher percentage cost to small than larger business... and they may lack expertise. 2/


You'll note that in the EU, with virtually no paperwork or differing regulations, the costs of exports are similar for smaller and large companies - though even there there is a big company bias, because who can afford to lobby for friendly regulations? 3/

The same unfortunately typically applies to trade deals. If you are Nissan and threaten to leave the country without the right deal you have more clout than a small cheesemaker. As we see. But is it just the EU that is over-bureaucratic? Sadly not... 4/


One of the best UK business groups on trade policy @BritAmBusiness (and yes you can quote me @EmanueAdam) has a new report out on a UK-US trade deal and SMEs. It shows opportunities. But unfortunately problems unlikely to be solved. 5/
BREXIT
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
The first working day of the new UK-EU relationship. We're going to hear a lot this year from all sides (remain and Brexit in UK, EU, etc) using any possible scrap of evidence. But what we need to look for is trends, over time, so a few to think about in this thread... 1/

Obvious disruption or reduction to UK-EU trade flow. Here we may be thinking e.g. of a permanent 10% fall in traffic, or regular queues, or indeed no change. And apart from goods, the same with individual travel, for work, residence etc... 2/

As a reminder we're not expecting permanent scenes like those of the week before Christmas when borders were closed. But 5-10% reductions in UK-EU traffic would not seem to be out of line with economic forecasts of a hit to the UK economy. 3/

Then we'll need to look at whether UK-EU trade is being substituted by UK-non EU trade. This probably should happen to a degree, and in theory efficiencies could come this way. But its also possible that all UK trade falls, with the UK no longer an EU entry point. 4/

Inward investment is another key post-Brexit indicator. There isn't a single obvious data set here, but the impression of the last four years has been a fall off in manufacturing, but not in services, particularly tech. Continuation would suggest economy tilting to services. 5/
BREXIT

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Time once again to emphasize the differences between totalitarianism, authoritarianism, and fascism. They're often used as synonyms but they are different, although they do tend to lead to each other. Order one, and the other two are usually delivered soon enough.

Totalitarianism is best understood as the politicization of everything. Every facet of life is infused with political meaning... and subjected to political control. There is little room for privacy or individualism. Every word and deed is seen as a political action.

Totalitarianism does *not* require authoritarian government, although it usually leads to such. You can be totalitarian without having any real government power at all, enforcing your political will through mob actions and corporate power. Examples from recent history abound.

Totalitarianism is the easiest of the three deadly "isms" to slide into, because it can easily be disguised with claims of its good intentions. Totalitarians usually claim to be motivated by the Greater Good. They claim to represent the interests of sympathetic victims.

Totalitarians claim that society is unjust and must be corrected by force. Before they gain the power to become authoritarians, they often assert the right to use force outside of the law because the government is corrupt or serves the interests of their ideological enemies.
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@robkhenderson
The common understanding of propaganda is that it is intended to brainwash the masses. Supposedly, people get exposed to the same message repeatedly and over time come to believe in whatever nonsense authoritarians want them to believe /1

And yet authoritarians often broadcast silly, unpersuasive propaganda.

Political scientist Haifeng Huang writes that the purpose of propaganda is not to brainwash people, but to instill fear in them /2


When people are bombarded with propaganda everywhere they look, they are reminded of the strength of the regime.

The vast amount of resources authoritarians spend to display their message in every corner of the public square is a costly demonstration of their power /3

In fact, the overt silliness of authoritarian propaganda is part of the point. Propaganda is designed to be silly so that people can instantly recognize it when they see it


Propaganda is intended to instill fear in people, not brainwash them.

The message is: You might not believe in pro-regime values or attitudes. But we will make sure you are too frightened to do anything about it.
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FRSC, NIGERIA
@FRSCNigeria
VALENTINE DAY CELEBRATION: FRSC CAUTIONS MOTORISTS AGAINST EXCESSIVE SPEED, DRUNK DRIVING AND RECKLESSNESS ON THE ROAD.

Owing to the need to ensure a safe and crash free celebration during the 2021 Valentine Day celebration, the Federal Road Safety Corps has warned the teaming community of celebrants and other road users, to desist from indulging in drunk driving, avoid excessive speed,

and resist the temptation to drive recklessly so as to mitigate all incidences of road traffic crashes during the celebration.

The Corps Public Education Officer, @BisiKazeem who made this public, said that the Corps Marshal, Dr Boboye Oyeyemi has directed Commanding Officers across board to double their efforts by ensuring massive deployment of Officers and Men for enhanced visibility,

adequate traffic control, and maximum enforcement of all COVID-19 protocols amongst motorists.
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We know is subjective & expect feedback/future improvements 👇

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2. Impact of Infectious Disease Consultation on Quality of Care, Mortality, and Length of Stay in Staphylococcus aureus Bacteremia: Results From a Large Multicenter Cohort Study.
https://t.co/XujO68pCuH
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3. Predicting Risk of Endocarditis Using a Clinical Tool (PREDICT): Scoring System to Guide Use of Echocardiography in the Management of Staphylococcus aureus Bacteremia
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Aurangzeb sent his maternal uncle Shaista Khan with powerful army over 1,50,000 on the request of Badibegum Sahiba, Adilshahi sultanate

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