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VW LOOKS INTO THE VALLEY OF DEATH

The disruptive threats Herbert Diess saw coming for big, incumbent automakers soon after he took over the top job at Volkswagen Group are playing out as predicted -- only faster and in more dramatic fashion

 In an interview, Diess said additional cost reductions and a speedier overhaul of the German industrial giant are vital to withstand new rivals with superior financial firepower
He has been reflecting not only on trying to keep pace with Tesla but on the risk that Apple adds another mighty competitor with almost unlimited resources to the automotive arena
“Despite all efforts, we are currently in a rather more difficult situation than in 2018 when I took office," Diess said

"What really has changed -- and what I had not expected to this extent -- is the view of capital markets on our industry”
In the almost 2 1/2 years since Diess told investors VW needed to aim for valuation levels more in line with Apple, Amazon and Google to still be around for another two decades, the gap has only grown
Elon Musk has beaten him to the punch by fetching an almost $700 billion market capitalization with Tesla, making the company worth more than the next six most-valuable carmakers combined

This is more than just a matter of bragging rights
In a single week last month, Tesla and Chinese electric-vehicle makers Nio and XPeng raised $9.7 billion worth of capital by selling stock

The $5 billion that Tesla raised was equivalent to about half of VW's annual net cash flow
VW group sold 8.31 million vehicles through the end of November last year, dwarfing Tesla's full-year deliveries of almost 500,000 cars
But Tesla's ability to sustain profits for five straight quarters after years of losses ignited investor enthusiasm both about its business and those trying to replicate its success
China’s XPeng and Li Auto listed on U.S. exchanges last year along with several startups that merged with special-purpose acquisition companies, including Nikola Corp and Fisker

Some analysts are warning the trend is overdone
The combined roughly $1 trillion market cap of traditional global auto manufacturers remained largely unchanged over the past 12 months, while the value of new rivals went through the roof
“Valuations of and sentiment toward traditional vehicle manufacturers continue to be far too pessimistic," Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Arndt Ellinghorst said in a note last week
“We remain convinced that established companies with global reach, brand equity and strong balance sheets will play a dominant role in the future of mobility”
UBS Group analysts led by Patrick Hummel have made VW their top pick among European automakers, predicting that "winning EV strategies are likely to be rewarded with higher multiples”
VW Group aims to become a global EV force, with the industry's largest investment plan of almost $90 billion over five years
VW cautioned in November that ongoing fallout from COVID-19 will weigh on earnings this year but stuck to its mid-term financial targets, which include restoring net cash flow to more than 10 billion euros ($12.3 billion) as early as 2022
Delivering on these goals could go a long way to defy skeptical investors that remain unconvinced VW can become more nimble
“We haven't sufficiently proved yet that we can hold our ground in the new competitive environment -- our valuation is still located in 'old auto’” Diess said

“This leads to a grave disadvantage for us in terms of access to required resources”
Investments that VW and its peers are making in EVs, software operations, mobility platforms and self-driving technology will be enormous
Investors would face much higher dilution if the companies were to try raising funds by selling stock as Tesla has, and such a scenario is further complicated at VW by its complex shareholder structure
While profits from Porsche, Audi and its Chinese ventures have filled VW Group's coffers over the years, its high fixed costs were exposed when sales tanked during the pandemic

Earnings at several peers proved more resilient
"We must significantly improve our costs and work on efficiency, to gear the traditional auto business significantly more toward returns," Diess said
He sought to rally the troops last month by declaring VW would pit its largest factory in Wolfsburg, Germany, against Tesla’s plant still under construction near Berlin
VW also embarked on a plan to reduce material costs by -7% within two years and hammer out a deal with unions in the first quarter to lower fixed costs -5% by 2023
Diess, who ruffled feathers last year by trying to narrow the group’s focus on its main car operations, insists the company can ill-afford to waste time

"The overhaul is still progressing too slowly," he said
The former BMW executive received a fresh vote of confidence last month from VW's supervisory board to pursue his overhaul and trim costs
He warns there could be dire consequences if the company that employs 670,000 people worldwide does too little and too late to change

"Not everyone realizes the threat to our company to the same extent," Diess said

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JPR007
JPR007
@jpr007
GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - A PRIMER

We have hopefully all seen this wonderful diagram from LLNL showing the Flow Diagram of the world’s Energy Consumption in a very useful form full of diagnostic power

So how did we get to here ?

And where are we going from here ?


1. The recent history of Global Energy Consumption

Back in the 1800s the primary use of energy was to generate heat by cutting down trees and vegetation and burning them as fuel - referred to here as “Traditional Biomass”

- this was a defining feature of our World 2.0


2. And then with the advent of the Industrial Revolution fossil fuels like Coal, Oil and Gas became increasingly important

- and they started to define many of the characteristics of our World 3.0


3. Wood-burning Biomass has remained as a significant source of Energy even though its proportion has declined

4. Coal reached as high as 50% of our Energy supply and has continued to grow in absolute terms even though its proportion has shrunk to around 25%


5. Oil took over 40% of the Energy market until the Oil Shock of 1973 started changing our attitudes about the efficiency of its consumption

6. And Gas has been steadily growing its share of the market
WORLD
JPR007
JPR007
@jpr007
@bburnworth Here’s some background

1. Global Vehicle Fleet


2. Natural Demand for new vehicles to support the evolution of the Global Vehicle Fleet


3. BEV Penetration S-Curve that you already alluded to


4. Evolution of BEV supply based on combining Natural Demand and the BEV Penetration S-Curve


5. Evolution of Tesla volume based on 20% Global Market Share of BEVs
BUSINESS
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JPR007
JPR007
@jpr007
LEGACY AUTOMAKERS - 2020 NOVEMBER YTD

As we approach the close of the year, how do the legacy automakers see themselves in 2020 ?

Total global industry volume is down -16% so far, and the two largest players reflect that same reality


Renault is down -22%

Nissan is down nearly -30%

And Mitsubishi is down nearly -39%

Which has brought this unstable alliance down by -28.1% overall

Of course, these numbers only reflect the way the industry likes to present itself to you

And many things about them are not quite as robust as they would have you believe

Let’s touch upon a few :

1. A lot of the volume that VW likes to report does not actually belong to them


2. Instead it belongs to Chinese companies that they only have partial ownership stakes in

3. So when VW actually files its own financial statements, a large part of this volume does not get included

4. On this particular scorecard they are reporting production and not sales

5. This is important for investors to understand because you only earn profits on sales and not on production

6. Any reports of sales numbers from legacy automakers have proven to be unreliable, and are prone to “sales reporting abuses”
BUSINESS
JPR007
JPR007
@jpr007
“Energy needed a digital revolution – and we are it”

Greg Jackson, boss of Octopus Energy, says the sector was ripe for an Amazon or Uber-style disruptor, but that his version will also boost the UK’s green revolution


Greg Jackson, chief executive of Octopus Energy, wears the unassuming combination of jeans and trainers one might expect from the founder of a wildly successful startup

There’s also a vast open-plan central London office, easy camaraderie with staff, lots of plants

He has the enthusiasm and world-changing idealism too

With all these markers of a tech unicorn – a deal last month with Tokyo Gas valued it at $2bn (£1.5bn) – it’s easy to forget that Octopus is an energy company

Jackson, 49, says the distinction is increasingly irrelevant

Octopus is a new breed of energy supplier, built on cutting-edge technology and unencumbered by the creaking billing systems and fossil-fuel plants that plague the UK’s “big six”

Set up just five years ago, it has been free to view the energy market as a tech startup would: ripe for disruption
BUSINESS
JPR007
JPR007
@jpr007
South Korean carmaker Hyundai on Wednesday presented the first 7 hydrogen-powered trucks to customers in Switzerland, out of 50 such vehicles scheduled this year to bring zero-emission commercial vehicles to European roads


For long haul, proponents say hydrogen-powered trucks have an advantage over electric rivals as they have a greater range and require less charging times but their uptake and mass production has been slow because they are expensive

However, a McKinsey study in January said that once relative efficiencies of the power sources and lifetime costs of a truck are factored in, green hydrogen could reach cost parity with diesel by 2030

PARITY WITH DIESEL ???

Hyundai has been partnering with Swiss companies to build a value chain covering the production of green hydrogen from hydropower, hydrogen charging stations and the service and maintenance of the trucks

The customers, which include supermarket chain Migros, will be leasing the trucks from Hyundai Hydrogen Mobility HHM to transport goods around the country, backed by the new hydrogen infrastructure
TECH

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Goldstein
Goldstein
@MrGoldstein7
The old conservative versus liberal thing, or the left/right division has been completely obliterated, and sometimes directly reversed. Originally, those on the right were defenders of the status quo, which meant they were fine with the world being run by bankers and aristocrats.
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Prashant Shah
Prashant Shah
@Prashantshah267
Thread: P&F Super Pattern

An effective price pattern defined using properties of P&F charts.

#Superpattern #Pointandfigure #Definedge


Point & Figure is an oldest charting method where price is plotted vertically, and the chart moves only when price moves. It is a different way of looking at the price, the objective box-value and reversal value offers advantage of identifying objective price patterns.

When price is moving up, it is plotted in a column of 'X'. When it is going down, it is plotted in a column of ‘O’. Normally, three-box reversal criteria is used to define the trend & reversal. Unlike a bar or candle, the P&F column can have multiple sessions in it.


Link to know more about the subject:
https://t.co/2xtLAVPBvm

See below chart. Price is in a strong uptrend, P&F chart would produce a long of column of 'X' with more number of boxes in it.


If such a trend is followed by some time bars without meaningful price correct, P&F chart would not move, and it will remain in column of 'X' in such a scenario.
FINANCE
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Neil Bananas Bharadwa \U0001f44a\U0001f3fd
Neil Bananas Bharadwa ...
@MrNeilB
Having made over 1000 boxes for vulnerable families in Cambridge via @RedHenCambridge (thanks to our customers 🙏🏽) My thoughts on the £30 box thing. Lots of factors at play here. 1/

If the pics in this @BootstrapCook thread are true and correct then the Govt/taxpayers & families in need are getting absolutely SHAFTED 👇🏽 2/


There are some mitigating circumstances. A £30 box won’t ever contain £30 (retail) worth of food - people aren’t factoring in
-the cost of the box
-paying someone to fill it
-rent & rates
-& most expensive the *transport/distribution*

3/

If you’re doing the above at scale. Delivering *across the UK* it’s not cheap BUT IMHO there should be at LEAST £20 worth of groceries in a £30 box. To get more value they need more fresh produce. Just carrots & apples is terrible. 4/

I’m gonna put my rep on the line here & say something about these big national catering companies whose names I’ve seen mentioned. They are an ASSHOLE to deal with & completely shaft small businesses like mine with their terms which is why I won’t deal with them. 5/
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Maureen Fitzsimmons
Maureen Fitzsimmons
@mojos55
@BylineTimes
1. The £22 billion Test and Trace system had a ‘relatively small’ effect on the R-number, a new evaluation from the Department of Health and Social Care has found.
2. EXCLUSIVE Firm Chaired by Government Procurement Advisor Awarded £38 Million Contract –
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Shravan Venkataraman \U0001f525\U0001f680\U0001f4b0
Shravan Venkataraman 🔥...
@theBuoyantMan
** MEGA THREAD ON Cryptocurrencies/Blockchain**

I wanted to know the best resources to learn about cryptocurrencies and blockchain for someone with zero knowledge. I asked Twitter, and Twitter answered.

This thread is a compilation of the best resources I was recommended. 👇👇

Let's start with ** BOOKS **

The first thing you should do before you pick up any book:

Learn about Bitcoin & Ethereum by reading the respective whitepapers.

- [Bitcoin white paper](https://t.co/cErOaFn6QL) by Satoshi Nakamoto

- [Ethereum White paper] (https://t.co/0g5kYCGJGq) by Vitalik Buterin

Even if you are not tech savvy, you can get a good grasp about how blockchain functions from these papers.

1) *The Basics of Bitcoins and Blockchains: An Introduction to Cryptocurrencies and the Technology that Powers Them* by Antony Lewis

This book covers topics such as the history of Bitcoin, the Bitcoin blockchain, and Bitcoin buying, selling, and mining.

It also answers how payments are made and how transactions are kept secure.

Other cryptocurrencies and cryptocurrency pricing are examined, answering how one puts a value on cryptocurrencies and digital tokens.
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8 March 1679 - The date on which 300 saffron clad warriors gave their life to protect temples from mugal army. Thread➡️
Aurangzeb's huge army, which was adorned with artillery, elephant and horses, under the leadership of Commander Darab Khan had marched to punish the ruler of/1


Khandela Raja Bahadur Singh, who became a rebel due to the anti-Hindu policies of Aurangzeb, and to destroy the temples of Shekhawati. Bahadur Singh to compete with such a large army, vacated Khandela for the purpose of conducting guerilla warfare and went Kot Sakrai /2

located in the inaccessible hills of Sakrai. People of Khandela also vacated Khandela and hid in nearby villages.

But some Shekhawat warriors did not like this as they knew that the royal army would not leave a single temple located in Shekhawati unbroken./3

so soon the teams of self-sacrificing Dharma-protectors Shekhawat heroes started reaching Khandela to protect the Dev temples.

Sujan Singh Shekhawat, the young thakur of Chhapoli, was coming back from his wedding when he heard about the imperial army from Shepherds./4

झिरमीर झिरमिर मेहा बरसे,मोरां छतरी छाई |
कुल में है तो आव सुजाण, फोज देवरे आई ||

if you are born in your glorious clan, then come, the army have come to destroy temple. /5
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Some ofthe biggest breakouts occur after Volatility Contraction, the analogy is that more a spring is pressed, higher it jumps whenever it gets released.

There is a VCP Scanner on chartink (Not mine). This may also be used to find potential Breakouts.
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Pieter Levels \u2728
Pieter Levels ✨
@levelsio
Joe Rogan's podcast is now is listened to 1.5+ billion times per year at around $50-100M/year revenue.

Independent and 100% owned by Joe, no networks, no middle men and a 100M+ people audience.

👏

https://t.co/RywAiBxA3s

Joe is the #1 / #2 podcast (depends per week) of all podcasts

120 million plays per month source https://t.co/k7L1LfDdcM


https://t.co/aGcYnVDpMu
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Marc Köhlbrugge
@marckohlbrugge
💬 I often get Q’s like these:

How did you get your first customers for WIP? How did you grow BetaList’s traffic? Etc.

Makers are looking to reverse-engineer success. I see it everywhere.

I don’t think it works that way and the answers to those questions are mostly useless. 💥

I have built dozens of different products over the last couple of years. The vast majority failed. 😭

Surely if I know the answers to these questions, but still fail over and over again, these answers aren’t that useful. 🤷‍♀️

So what’s a better question to ask? 🤔

99.9% of the questions I receive are about the products that did well. In a way that makes sense, because we quickly forget about those that didn’t succeed.

🧠 This is known as survivorship bias.

Focusing on what survived, while ignoring what made it survive in the first place.

The real question, what you really want to know, is this:

What makes @WIP, @BetaList, and to some extent @AllStartupJobs succeed where my countless other attempts failed?

What separates a failed product 👎 from a successful product 👍?

Honestly, I don’t know. I wish I did.

It’s like Steve Jobs said “I’ll know it when I see it.” 👀

Same is true when we make products. We don’t know upfront what will work. But once we see an inkling of a product that does have potential, it’s not that hard to spot.
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Vibhu Vashisth
Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet
हिमालय पर्वत की एक बड़ी पवित्र गुफा थी।उस गुफा के निकट ही गंगा जी बहती थी।एक बार देवर्षि नारद विचरण करते हुए वहां आ पहुंचे।वह परम पवित्र गुफा नारद जी को अत्यंत सुहावनी लगी।वहां का मनोरम प्राकृतिक दृश्य,पर्वत,नदी और वन देख उनके हृदय में श्रीहरि विष्णु की भक्ति अत्यंत बलवती हो उठी।


और देवर्षि नारद वहीं बैठकर तपस्या में लीन हो गए।इन्द्र नारद की तपस्या से घबरा गए।उन्हें हमेशा की तरह अपना सिंहासन व स्वर्ग खोने का डर सताने लगा।इसलिए इन्द्र ने नारद की तपस्या भंग करने के लिए कामदेव को उनके पास भेज दिया।वहां पहुंच कामदेव ने अपनी माया से वसंतऋतु को उत्पन्न कर दिया।


पेड़ और पौधों पर रंग बिरंगे फूल खिल गए और कोयलें कूकने लगी,पक्षी चहकने लगे।शीतल,मंद,सुगंधित और सुहावनी हवा चलने लगी।रंभा आदि अप्सराएं नाचने लगीं ।किन्तु कामदेव की किसी भी माया का नारद पे कोई प्रभाव नहीं पड़ा।तब कामदेव को डर सताने लगा कि कहीं नारद क्रोध में आकर मुझे श्राप न देदें।

जैसे ही नारद ने अपनी आंखें खोली, उसी क्षण कामदेव ने उनसे क्षमा मांगी।नारद मुनि को तनिक भी क्रोध नहीं आया और उन्होने शीघ्र ही कामदेव को क्षमा कर दिया।कामदेव प्रसन्न होकर वहां से चले गए।कामदेव के चले जाने पर देवर्षि के मन में अहंकार आ गया कि मैने कामदेव को हरा दिया।

नारद फिर कैलाश जा पहुंचे और शिवजी को अपनी विजयगाथा सुनाई।शिव समझ गए कि नारद अहंकारी हो गए हैं और अगर ये बात विष्णु जी जान गए तो नारद के लिए अच्छा नहीं होगा।ये सोचकर शिवजी ने नारद को भगवन विष्णु को ये बात बताने के लीए मना किया। परंतु नारद जी को ये बात उचित नहीं लगी।
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