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VW LOOKS INTO THE VALLEY OF DEATH

The disruptive threats Herbert Diess saw coming for big, incumbent automakers soon after he took over the top job at Volkswagen Group are playing out as predicted -- only faster and in more dramatic fashion

 In an interview, Diess said additional cost reductions and a speedier overhaul of the German industrial giant are vital to withstand new rivals with superior financial firepower
He has been reflecting not only on trying to keep pace with Tesla but on the risk that Apple adds another mighty competitor with almost unlimited resources to the automotive arena
“Despite all efforts, we are currently in a rather more difficult situation than in 2018 when I took office," Diess said

"What really has changed -- and what I had not expected to this extent -- is the view of capital markets on our industry”
In the almost 2 1/2 years since Diess told investors VW needed to aim for valuation levels more in line with Apple, Amazon and Google to still be around for another two decades, the gap has only grown
Elon Musk has beaten him to the punch by fetching an almost $700 billion market capitalization with Tesla, making the company worth more than the next six most-valuable carmakers combined

This is more than just a matter of bragging rights
In a single week last month, Tesla and Chinese electric-vehicle makers Nio and XPeng raised $9.7 billion worth of capital by selling stock

The $5 billion that Tesla raised was equivalent to about half of VW's annual net cash flow
VW group sold 8.31 million vehicles through the end of November last year, dwarfing Tesla's full-year deliveries of almost 500,000 cars
But Tesla's ability to sustain profits for five straight quarters after years of losses ignited investor enthusiasm both about its business and those trying to replicate its success
China’s XPeng and Li Auto listed on U.S. exchanges last year along with several startups that merged with special-purpose acquisition companies, including Nikola Corp and Fisker

Some analysts are warning the trend is overdone
The combined roughly $1 trillion market cap of traditional global auto manufacturers remained largely unchanged over the past 12 months, while the value of new rivals went through the roof
“Valuations of and sentiment toward traditional vehicle manufacturers continue to be far too pessimistic," Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Arndt Ellinghorst said in a note last week
“We remain convinced that established companies with global reach, brand equity and strong balance sheets will play a dominant role in the future of mobility”
UBS Group analysts led by Patrick Hummel have made VW their top pick among European automakers, predicting that "winning EV strategies are likely to be rewarded with higher multiples”
VW Group aims to become a global EV force, with the industry's largest investment plan of almost $90 billion over five years
VW cautioned in November that ongoing fallout from COVID-19 will weigh on earnings this year but stuck to its mid-term financial targets, which include restoring net cash flow to more than 10 billion euros ($12.3 billion) as early as 2022
Delivering on these goals could go a long way to defy skeptical investors that remain unconvinced VW can become more nimble
“We haven't sufficiently proved yet that we can hold our ground in the new competitive environment -- our valuation is still located in 'old auto’” Diess said

“This leads to a grave disadvantage for us in terms of access to required resources”
Investments that VW and its peers are making in EVs, software operations, mobility platforms and self-driving technology will be enormous
Investors would face much higher dilution if the companies were to try raising funds by selling stock as Tesla has, and such a scenario is further complicated at VW by its complex shareholder structure
While profits from Porsche, Audi and its Chinese ventures have filled VW Group's coffers over the years, its high fixed costs were exposed when sales tanked during the pandemic

Earnings at several peers proved more resilient
"We must significantly improve our costs and work on efficiency, to gear the traditional auto business significantly more toward returns," Diess said
He sought to rally the troops last month by declaring VW would pit its largest factory in Wolfsburg, Germany, against Tesla’s plant still under construction near Berlin
VW also embarked on a plan to reduce material costs by -7% within two years and hammer out a deal with unions in the first quarter to lower fixed costs -5% by 2023
Diess, who ruffled feathers last year by trying to narrow the group’s focus on its main car operations, insists the company can ill-afford to waste time

"The overhaul is still progressing too slowly," he said
The former BMW executive received a fresh vote of confidence last month from VW's supervisory board to pursue his overhaul and trim costs
He warns there could be dire consequences if the company that employs 670,000 people worldwide does too little and too late to change

"Not everyone realizes the threat to our company to the same extent," Diess said

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JPR007
JPR007
@jpr007
@bburnworth Here’s some background

1. Global Vehicle Fleet


2. Natural Demand for new vehicles to support the evolution of the Global Vehicle Fleet


3. BEV Penetration S-Curve that you already alluded to


4. Evolution of BEV supply based on combining Natural Demand and the BEV Penetration S-Curve


5. Evolution of Tesla volume based on 20% Global Market Share of BEVs
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JPR007
JPR007
@jpr007
South Korean carmaker Hyundai on Wednesday presented the first 7 hydrogen-powered trucks to customers in Switzerland, out of 50 such vehicles scheduled this year to bring zero-emission commercial vehicles to European roads


For long haul, proponents say hydrogen-powered trucks have an advantage over electric rivals as they have a greater range and require less charging times but their uptake and mass production has been slow because they are expensive

However, a McKinsey study in January said that once relative efficiencies of the power sources and lifetime costs of a truck are factored in, green hydrogen could reach cost parity with diesel by 2030

PARITY WITH DIESEL ???

Hyundai has been partnering with Swiss companies to build a value chain covering the production of green hydrogen from hydropower, hydrogen charging stations and the service and maintenance of the trucks

The customers, which include supermarket chain Migros, will be leasing the trucks from Hyundai Hydrogen Mobility HHM to transport goods around the country, backed by the new hydrogen infrastructure
TECH
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JPR007
JPR007
@jpr007
GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION - A PRIMER

We have hopefully all seen this wonderful diagram from LLNL showing the Flow Diagram of the world’s Energy Consumption in a very useful form full of diagnostic power

So how did we get to here ?

And where are we going from here ?


1. The recent history of Global Energy Consumption

Back in the 1800s the primary use of energy was to generate heat by cutting down trees and vegetation and burning them as fuel - referred to here as “Traditional Biomass”

- this was a defining feature of our World 2.0


2. And then with the advent of the Industrial Revolution fossil fuels like Coal, Oil and Gas became increasingly important

- and they started to define many of the characteristics of our World 3.0


3. Wood-burning Biomass has remained as a significant source of Energy even though its proportion has declined

4. Coal reached as high as 50% of our Energy supply and has continued to grow in absolute terms even though its proportion has shrunk to around 25%


5. Oil took over 40% of the Energy market until the Oil Shock of 1973 started changing our attitudes about the efficiency of its consumption

6. And Gas has been steadily growing its share of the market
WORLD
JPR007
JPR007
@jpr007
LEGACY AUTOMAKERS - 2020 NOVEMBER YTD

As we approach the close of the year, how do the legacy automakers see themselves in 2020 ?

Total global industry volume is down -16% so far, and the two largest players reflect that same reality


Renault is down -22%

Nissan is down nearly -30%

And Mitsubishi is down nearly -39%

Which has brought this unstable alliance down by -28.1% overall

Of course, these numbers only reflect the way the industry likes to present itself to you

And many things about them are not quite as robust as they would have you believe

Let’s touch upon a few :

1. A lot of the volume that VW likes to report does not actually belong to them


2. Instead it belongs to Chinese companies that they only have partial ownership stakes in

3. So when VW actually files its own financial statements, a large part of this volume does not get included

4. On this particular scorecard they are reporting production and not sales

5. This is important for investors to understand because you only earn profits on sales and not on production

6. Any reports of sales numbers from legacy automakers have proven to be unreliable, and are prone to “sales reporting abuses”
BUSINESS
JPR007
JPR007
@jpr007
“Energy needed a digital revolution – and we are it”

Greg Jackson, boss of Octopus Energy, says the sector was ripe for an Amazon or Uber-style disruptor, but that his version will also boost the UK’s green revolution


Greg Jackson, chief executive of Octopus Energy, wears the unassuming combination of jeans and trainers one might expect from the founder of a wildly successful startup

There’s also a vast open-plan central London office, easy camaraderie with staff, lots of plants

He has the enthusiasm and world-changing idealism too

With all these markers of a tech unicorn – a deal last month with Tokyo Gas valued it at $2bn (£1.5bn) – it’s easy to forget that Octopus is an energy company

Jackson, 49, says the distinction is increasingly irrelevant

Octopus is a new breed of energy supplier, built on cutting-edge technology and unencumbered by the creaking billing systems and fossil-fuel plants that plague the UK’s “big six”

Set up just five years ago, it has been free to view the energy market as a tech startup would: ripe for disruption
BUSINESS

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Kevin Dahlstrom
Kevin Dahlstrom
@Camp4
🤔 Thread: More of the wrong thing is less
(or, how I stepped off the hamster wheel)

I’m going to share a personal story with hope that it inspires at least one person to re-examine their definition of success 👇

Through hard work and an unfair share of luck, I’ve done some cool “bucket list” things in my career:

✅Raised VC from the worlds’ top firms
✅Helped build 100’s of millions in revenue from nothing
✅Rang the bell at the NYSE
✅Met & did deals with billionaires & business icons

These are things I dreamed about when I was young and I treasure some of the memories. But when they finally happened I felt surprisingly unfulfilled. I was scoring lots of points but didn’t feel like I was winning.

Then a few years ago during a board meeting I had a moment of clarity. I looked around the table at 10 people, all absurdly successful by financial measures. There wasn’t a single person I wanted to emulate. Most were unhealthy and several had told me that they were unhappy.

Within months I walked away from from a 7-figure salary, moved my family to Boulder, & haven’t looked back. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a capitalist & like money as much as anyone. But for me it's not the thing, and *more of the wrong thing is less*.
FINANCE , VISION
MagaFarley
MagaFarley
@MagaFarley
THREAD:

What if I can prove @KLoeffler has direct financial ties to China, doing just a simple open source dive into her recent past?

It’s pretty obvious...follow along:
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Dave Nemetz
@davenemetz
1/ A lot of people ask me how Bleacher Report found our first writers when we were tiny and had no funding.

So here's a thread on all the things we tried, what worked best, and lessons on growing a community from scratch:

2/ When we first started B/R, all the articles were written by my co-founders, our friends, and me.

This led to some hilariously bad takes. Like this article where I panned the SF Giants for drafting future World Series MVP Madison Bumgarner.

3/ When we were ready to start building our community, we started with word of mouth. We drafted an email pitching our concept. It went out to everyone we knew, asking them to share it with anyone who would be interested.

This got us maybe a few dozen signups.

From the email:


4/ With only a handful of members, we needed to make the community feel more active.

So we faked it til we made it.

Our team created multiple accounts and posted using different fake names. This created the sense of more activity and encouraged new members to join in.

5/ Later, I learned that the founders of Reddit did the same thing early on.

Sometimes the solution to the "chicken and the egg" problem of building community is to create the illusion of more chickens (or
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Matt Allen
Matt Allen
@investmattallen
12 charts every investor should know:

1. History of the stock market in one chart


2. The Psychology of a Market Cycle


3. "Experts" will always give you smart reasons to sell in the short term, but you will regret it in the long term


4. Largest companies by market cap (1960-2022)


5. Compounding is the 8th wonder of the world
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Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16
Rule 4 : If buying a naked option, always ensure that implied volatility is low. This can be understood from the level of IV vis a vis historical IV levels. Use IVR or IVP etc.
For a naked option to make money, it's better if IV rises or at least stays flat.


This is a thread I wrote on IV, IVR etc
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IT WAS RISHI KANADA WHO GAVE THE ATOMIC THEORY & TALKED ABOUT THE GRAVITY OF EARTH, 2600 YEARS BEFORE AN APPLE FELL IN FRONT OF NEWTON'S EYES:

Scientists of the modern world credit an English scientist John Dalton (1766 CE -1844 CE) for the Atomic Theory.


And this is because, most of us are not even aware of an ancient Indian Sage named Kanada, who was the first to formulate the theory of atoms, almost 2600 yrs before Dalton and talk about earth's gravity.


Rishi Kanada was born around 600 BCE in Dwarka, Gujarat and he was the son of a philosopher named Ulka. He was fascinated with the minute detailing of the things right from his childhood. Once, when he was very young, he accompanied his father on a journey to Prayaga.


He saw plentiful grains scattered along the path leading to the shore of river Ganga. It's a tradition in Hindu families to scatter the grains for the ants and birds to feed on them. Suddenly, an ant caught his attention, who was feeding on a rice grain.


He was mesmerised by this very fact that how a small grain of rice becomes food for the ant but to satisfy the hunger of a person so many grains are needed together. This incidence made him realize the importance of a single grain of rice.
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On the occasion of youtube 20k and Twitter 70k members

A small tribute/gift to members

Screeners

technical screeners - intraday and positional both

before proceeding - i have helped you , can i ask you so that it can help someone else too

thank you

positional one

run - find #stock - draw chart - find levels

1- Stocks closing daily 2% up from 5 days
https://t.co/gTZrYY3Nht

2- Weekly breakout
https://t.co/1f4ahEolYB

3- Breakouts in short term
https://t.co/BI4h0CdgO2

4- Bullish from last 5

intraday screeners

5- 15 minute Stock Breakouts
https://t.co/9eAo82iuNv

6- Intraday Buying seen in the past 15 minutes
https://t.co/XqAJKhLB5G

7- Stocks trading near day's high on 5 min chart with volume BO intraday
https://t.co/flHmm6QXmo

Thank you
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#Thread - 1/21

A story of a brave woman who let her "breast" cut to protect the life of Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose!

Neera Arya was born on March 5 1902 in Khekra Nagar, Uttar Pradesh in a distinguished & eminent businessman Seth Chhajumal's family. Since her childhood,


2/21
She was a true nationalist & always had a vision of becoming a part of the freedom fighter movement. She was also reportedly accused as an undercover by the British Govt.

That was the time when her father's business was flourishing in Calcutta, though his business was..

3/21
spread across the country but Calcutta was the center of his business and that was one of the reasons why her education was done in Calcutta. During that period of time, she had learned quite a few languages along with Bengali, Hindi, English.

4/21
Her father got her married to a CID Inspector "Shrikant Jairanjan Das" in British India but they were two different individuals, Neera Arya was a true nationalist but her husband was a true British servant. She was highly motivated & she had an urge of getting us freedom..

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so she ended up joining the Jhansi Regiment in Azad Hind Fauz after the marriage. It was the regiment that the British always accused them of spying on British Govt.

It was the time when Neera's husband Jairanjan Das was given the responsibility to spy on Netaji Subhash..
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Nicolas
Nicolas
@necolas
A brief analysis and comparison of the CSS for Twitter's PWA vs Twitter's legacy desktop website. The difference is dramatic and I'll touch on some reasons why.

Legacy site *downloads* ~630 KB CSS per theme and writing direction.

6,769 rules
9,252 selectors
16.7k declarations
3,370 unique declarations
44 media queries
36 unique colors
50 unique background colors
46 unique font sizes
39 unique z-indices

https://t.co/qyl4Bt1i5x


PWA *incrementally generates* ~30 KB CSS that handles all themes and writing directions.

735 rules
740 selectors
757 declarations
730 unique declarations
0 media queries
11 unique colors
32 unique background colors
15 unique font sizes
7 unique z-indices

https://t.co/w7oNG5KUkJ


The legacy site's CSS is what happens when hundreds of people directly write CSS over many years. Specificity wars, redundancy, a house of cards that can't be fixed. The result is extremely inefficient and error-prone styling that punishes users and developers.

The PWA's CSS is generated on-demand by a JS framework that manages styles and outputs "atomic CSS". The framework can enforce strict constraints and perform optimisations, which is why the CSS is so much smaller and safer. Style conflicts and unbounded CSS growth are avoided.
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Peggy Klaver #FBR \U0001f30a\u270a\U0001f3fb\u270a\U0001f3fd\u270a\U0001f3ff\u270a\U0001f3fc
Peggy Klaver #FBR 🌊✊🏻✊...
@Pegerella
The man who invented autocorrect should burn in hello.

It was meant to put a smile on your face. Please stop sending me instructions on how to turn my autocorrect off. 😳🤔

Texted my friends to ask if I could take their kids with me to Satan... still have not heard back from them. I meant Santa...

Thanks for all the love, I appreciate a follow. 💗
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