The man who invented autocorrect should burn in hello.

👇Thread.

Published a new essay: The red flags and magic numbers that investors look for in your startup’s metrics – 80 slide deck included!

This was a deck that I created on my (longish) interview process with @a16z. It was a long path, starting with meeting folks at the firm 10 years ago. But the purpose of the deck was to explain how I would use my superpower in an investing context

Here's what I explain in the deck. As investors (whether angel or VC) we're often confronted with an up-and-to-the-right graph. Is it going to go up? Or down?

One solution to forecast these growth curves is the Growth Accounting Framework, where you add up New+Reactivated and subtract churned users. In each time period that gives you the difference in monthly actives.

The problem with this is that it's a lagging metric, not a leading one. We need to go one level deeper and look at the underlying loops that drive these numbers, to understand the quality.

Oleg Karpov pisze, że gdyby Siergiej Sirotkin zdobył w pierwszej części sezonu więcej punktów od Strolla, to jego kontrakt z automatu zostałby przedłużony na kolejny sezon. Tak się nie stało i Williams ma możliwość szukania innych opcji i to właśnie robi. #F1pl

Czego w artykule brakuje, to informacji, że SMP prawdopodobnie przekazało Williamsowi część środków na sfinansowanie sezonu 2019. W przypadku zakończenia współpracy ekipa z Grove będzie musiała zwrócić te środki. #F1pl

To tłumaczy wysokie kwoty jakich Williams ma oczekiwać za fotel od nowego kierowcy. Jest pewnie próg opłacalności i dopóki nie zostanie osiągnięty, to zmiana z finansowego punktu widzenia nie będzie się zwyczajnie opłacała. #F1pl

Tyle można znaleźć w oświadczeniach prasowych... 😂😂😂

Social Intelligence 101:

If your friend is telling you about an accomplishment, do not try to one-up them by sharing an accomplishment of your own.

Tame your ego.

Sit back and actively listen.

1. SolarWinds - an IT monitoring company with the NSA, all five military branches of the Pentagon, and several major civilian agencies, had their software hacked by the Russian hacker group Cozy Bear yesterday, the same group responsible for the 2016 DNC hack.

2. SolarWinds uses a protocol called Orion Improvement Protocol (I believe this is a wrapper for RMON and SNMP calls), and this protocol was hacked at Treasury and NTIA, the National Telecommunication advisor agency.

3. As a veteran of hacking forensics, I always look at modus operandi by malicious groups and at human factor compromises as the first investigative avenues to pursue. My research partner Jen Moore discovered Pavel Yershov lead the 2016 attack for GRU also worked for Microsoft.

4. Interesting that Warren Flood also works for Microsoft Pro Services, and he was intimately involved in the 2016 DNC Microsoft GRU "Hack". Flood and his wife were instrumental in the Dominion Voting Machine purchases in Wayne County, Michigan and the State of Georgia,

5. Even more interesting that Warren Flood has worked for a long time for Joe Biden as has his wife.

X : Our executive team is concerned that we need to up our game in order to out innovate Amazon.
Me : Do you map?
X : Yes
Me : Like this?
X : No. What's that?
Me : A map of a tea shop.

X : Why is that a map?
Me : Long story, all to do with how space has meaning. To keep it short, maps help people to focus on user needs, the components involved, to communicate missing components and scenario play ideas like staff becoming robots.

Me : They’re also good for measuring and managing capital flow, making investment decisions, removing bias and getting rid of duplication.
X : I don’t see how that helps with innovation?

Me : Well, innovation is a tricky word because we use it to describe many things. If you’re talking about differentiation with the adjacent unexplored then you’re experimenting in the “uncharted” space e.g. immortality with magic provided by the special custom built kettle.

X : That sounds like nonsense.
Me : A lot of what people think will be the next great innovation is nonsense. Actually, most of it is. That’s the nature of the uncharted space, it’s experimental, high risk and generally results in failure.
X : We need more reliable innovation.