The most common problem faced by day-traders and it's easy solution which is extremely difficult to implement.
A thread.
( uses concepts I have discussed many times before in separate threads)
Train ---- Play tournaments --- Rest
Rest = taking time off markets
Train = trading in markets in training mode
Understanding REST is easy, simply take time off markets and spend time with family or do something you love
Paper trading or trading on a simulator is never good training as it never gives you the same psychological issue while actual trading. Deep down you know this is fake, you are not making or losing actual money
Trade 1 lot ( I am speaking about intraday options trading, cash traders can do this with a simple share of any stock) following your system/process for one month. This sounds easy, right?
First month = 1 lot
2nd month = 2 lots
3rd month = 4 lots
4th month = follow money mgmt/position sizing with a small bet per trade
Same with trading. Best of luck ! 🙏
https://t.co/oqCwSz8kfW
Perhaps you have the idea that calling me " 1 lot Nandy" is somehow derogatory and a easy poke at me. Allow me to explain why I look at this moniker as a badge of honour https://t.co/1Q8tOQ2U6a
— Subhadip Nandy (@SubhadipNandy16) July 16, 2021
More from Subhadip Nandy
IV - A thread
In financial mathematics, implied volatility of an option contract is
that value of the volatility of the underlying instrument which, when
input in an option pricing model ) will return a theoretical value equal to the current market price of the option (1/n)
Implied volatility, a forward-looking and subjective measure, differs
from historical volatility because the latter is calculated from known
past returns of a security. .
https://t.co/iC5wVf7kvj (2/n)
To understand where Implied Volatility stands in terms of the underlying, implied volatility rank is used to understand its implied volatility from a one year high and low IV.
https://t.co/NFPOidRRcH
https://t.co/qNqinEqaKY
(3/n)
Options traders are always looking at the IV and IVR/IVP. For option
buyers, a low IV environment is best to initiate positions as the
subsequent rise in IV actually helps their positions . Even if the IV
remains flat, the position is not hurt by volatility (4/n)
Option sellers on the other hand are looking for high IV scenarios, where
the subsequent fall in IV ( known a vol crush , most often seen after
earnings/events) helps their positions. Here also, if the IV does not
rise, it does not hurt a seller's positions (5/n)
In financial mathematics, implied volatility of an option contract is
that value of the volatility of the underlying instrument which, when
input in an option pricing model ) will return a theoretical value equal to the current market price of the option (1/n)
Implied volatility, a forward-looking and subjective measure, differs
from historical volatility because the latter is calculated from known
past returns of a security. .
https://t.co/iC5wVf7kvj (2/n)
To understand where Implied Volatility stands in terms of the underlying, implied volatility rank is used to understand its implied volatility from a one year high and low IV.
https://t.co/NFPOidRRcH
https://t.co/qNqinEqaKY
(3/n)
Options traders are always looking at the IV and IVR/IVP. For option
buyers, a low IV environment is best to initiate positions as the
subsequent rise in IV actually helps their positions . Even if the IV
remains flat, the position is not hurt by volatility (4/n)
Option sellers on the other hand are looking for high IV scenarios, where
the subsequent fall in IV ( known a vol crush , most often seen after
earnings/events) helps their positions. Here also, if the IV does not
rise, it does not hurt a seller's positions (5/n)
Ok here is the explanation. Grab a cup of coffee and read on. If you have not read/noticed this, you will see intraday options movement in a new light.
Say we have two options, one 50 delta ATM options and another 30 delta OTM option. Normally for a 100 point move, the ATM option will move 50 points and the OTM option will move 30 points. But in a high volatile environment, the OTM option will also move nearly 50 points
To understand why this happens, first understand why an ATM option is 50 delta. An ATM option has the probability of 50% of expiring as ITM. The price just has to close a rupee above the strike for the CE to be ITM and vice versa for PEs
Now think of a highly volatile day like today. If someone is asked where the BNF will close for the day or expiry, no one can answer. BNF can close freakin anywhere, That makes every option of an equal probability of being ITM. So all options have a 50% probability of being ITM
Hence, when a huge volatile move starts, all OTM options behave like ATM options. This phenomenon was first observed in the Black Monday crash of 1987 at Wall Street, which also gave rise to the volatility skew/smirk
In a high IV environment or when the market is very volatile
— Subhadip Nandy (@SubhadipNandy16) January 21, 2022
" OTM options will behave like ATM options", one will get almost the same delta movement
Say we have two options, one 50 delta ATM options and another 30 delta OTM option. Normally for a 100 point move, the ATM option will move 50 points and the OTM option will move 30 points. But in a high volatile environment, the OTM option will also move nearly 50 points
To understand why this happens, first understand why an ATM option is 50 delta. An ATM option has the probability of 50% of expiring as ITM. The price just has to close a rupee above the strike for the CE to be ITM and vice versa for PEs
Now think of a highly volatile day like today. If someone is asked where the BNF will close for the day or expiry, no one can answer. BNF can close freakin anywhere, That makes every option of an equal probability of being ITM. So all options have a 50% probability of being ITM
Hence, when a huge volatile move starts, all OTM options behave like ATM options. This phenomenon was first observed in the Black Monday crash of 1987 at Wall Street, which also gave rise to the volatility skew/smirk
Two year back thread on MFI, someone liked this so came up in notifications . Rather than running around 100s of indicators, I have made this my go to indicator under any circumstances and have been using this for years
This thread actually had some great answers , one can learn a lot about the thought processes of different traders from the answers. Please go thru them
What do you think/use as the most robust leading indicator if following technical analysis ? Please answer with reason , I will provide my answer after 2 hours
— Subhadip Nandy (@SubhadipNandy16) August 12, 2019
( At Delhi airport , bored as hell )
This thread actually had some great answers , one can learn a lot about the thought processes of different traders from the answers. Please go thru them
More from Finance
Rule 4 : If buying a naked option, always ensure that implied volatility is low. This can be understood from the level of IV vis a vis historical IV levels. Use IVR or IVP etc.
For a naked option to make money, it's better if IV rises or at least stays flat.
This is a thread I wrote on IV, IVR etc
For a naked option to make money, it's better if IV rises or at least stays flat.
Rule 3 : DO NOT run or trade everything that moves. Focus on a few stocks and master them. When a move comes, make the max out of that move.
— Subhadip Nandy (@SubhadipNandy16) October 14, 2021
Example : in this crazy mkt, I did not even trade TataMotors this week. Stayed focussed on ITC and it gave good returns https://t.co/41wkugZg1I
This is a thread I wrote on IV, IVR etc
IV - A thread
— Subhadip Nandy (@SubhadipNandy16) September 20, 2018
In financial mathematics, implied volatility of an option contract is
that value of the volatility of the underlying instrument which, when
input in an option pricing model ) will return a theoretical value equal to the current market price of the option (1/n)
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Keep dwelling on this:
Further Examination of the Motif near PRRA Reveals Close Structural Similarity to the SEB Superantigen as well as Sequence Similarities to Neurotoxins and a Viral SAg.
The insertion PRRA together with 7 sequentially preceding residues & succeeding R685 (conserved in β-CoVs) form a motif, Y674QTQTNSPRRAR685, homologous to those of neurotoxins from Ophiophagus (cobra) and Bungarus genera, as well as neurotoxin-like regions from three RABV strains
(20) (Fig. 2D). We further noticed that the same segment bears close similarity to the HIV-1 glycoprotein gp120 SAg motif F164 to V174.
https://t.co/EwwJOSa8RK
In (B), the segment S680PPRAR685 including the PRRA insert and highly conserved cleavage site *R685* is shown in van der Waals representation (black labels) and nearby CDR residues of the TCRVβ domain are labeled in blue/white
https://t.co/BsY8BAIzDa
Sequence Identity %
https://t.co/BsY8BAIzDa
Y674 - QTQTNSPRRA - R685
Similar to neurotoxins from Ophiophagus (cobra) & Bungarus genera & neurotoxin-like regions from three RABV strains
T678 - NSPRRA- R685
Superantigenic core, consistently aligned against bacterial or viral SAgs
Further Examination of the Motif near PRRA Reveals Close Structural Similarity to the SEB Superantigen as well as Sequence Similarities to Neurotoxins and a Viral SAg.
The insertion PRRA together with 7 sequentially preceding residues & succeeding R685 (conserved in β-CoVs) form a motif, Y674QTQTNSPRRAR685, homologous to those of neurotoxins from Ophiophagus (cobra) and Bungarus genera, as well as neurotoxin-like regions from three RABV strains
(20) (Fig. 2D). We further noticed that the same segment bears close similarity to the HIV-1 glycoprotein gp120 SAg motif F164 to V174.
https://t.co/EwwJOSa8RK
In (B), the segment S680PPRAR685 including the PRRA insert and highly conserved cleavage site *R685* is shown in van der Waals representation (black labels) and nearby CDR residues of the TCRVβ domain are labeled in blue/white
https://t.co/BsY8BAIzDa
Sequence Identity %
https://t.co/BsY8BAIzDa
Y674 - QTQTNSPRRA - R685
Similar to neurotoxins from Ophiophagus (cobra) & Bungarus genera & neurotoxin-like regions from three RABV strains
T678 - NSPRRA- R685
Superantigenic core, consistently aligned against bacterial or viral SAgs
