BC FINANCE
Saved by @curiousat3am

The most common problem faced by day-traders and it's easy solution which is extremely difficult to implement.
A thread.
( uses concepts I have discussed many times before in separate threads)

 Problem : I have a good system, I understand charts and/or price action, but I simply can't make money. I hold my losses too long or ( this is most common) I get out of profitable positions too fast and cannot sit for the whole move
At many firms at NASDAQ, day-traders are seen as elite sportspersons playing in a difficult taxing game. That's why, they have regular sessions with sports psychologists. They are advised to follow the basic routine of sportspersons.
Train ---- Play tournaments --- Rest
The cycle repeats
We retail day-traders here neither rest nor train.

Rest = taking time off markets
Train = trading in markets in training mode

Understanding REST is easy, simply take time off markets and spend time with family or do something you love
But what about training ?
Paper trading or trading on a simulator is never good training as it never gives you the same psychological issue while actual trading. Deep down you know this is fake, you are not making or losing actual money
As you are never making or losing money, you will not be able to be in the same psychological state / pressure which comes in actual trading. Your decisions while paper trading or simulated trading will be vastly superior or actual trading
The solution:
Trade 1 lot ( I am speaking about intraday options trading, cash traders can do this with a simple share of any stock) following your system/process for one month. This sounds easy, right?
Try implementing this, you will understand the massive psychological discipline and strength it requires. Majority fail to do this over a month and go back trading their normal volumes and thus face the same issues all over again
If you are in a trading slump for long and aim to claw back, give yourself 3 months.
First month = 1 lot
2nd month = 2 lots
3rd month = 4 lots
4th month = follow money mgmt/position sizing with a small bet per trade
I have used this "one lot" rule twice in my trading career to resolve my psychological issues while trading. In my time on twitter, have advised this method to probably hundreds and thousands of traders over the past few years.
So far, very few traders ( around 5 or 6) have followed this method diligently as I have outlined and come back to me with the results. Not surprisingly, all of them were profitable to various degrees
There is no short-cut solution is you are facing the same problem. No guru, no webinar/seminar/handholding/setup/system will be able to solve this issue.
As one of my students rightly said " when we go to a gym, the trainer can show us all the moves. But it's us who have to appear at the gym everyday and do the exercises if we have to improve our body"

Same with trading. Best of luck ! 🙏
Anthony Saliba, the only options trader to be interviewed in the first Market Wizards book was the original one lot trader. Indian fintwit has nicknamed me also as one lot, what a great title ! Thanks

https://t.co/oqCwSz8kfW

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In technical analysis, majority of the patterns were first observed visually and then the rules made. Observing this interesting phenomenon on BNF over the past one month.
Any strong up day on BNF is immediately followed by a gap down open from the previous closing


So any upmove /upday is almost never having any follow-up buying the next day. Unless this pattern gets broken by 1-3 days of upmove after a strong closing, BNF looks extremely bearish. The logic of BNF seems to be " will kick your ass if you take bullish positions overnight" 😀

Jokes apart, if you want to understand the logical basis of patterns, this book is still the best :
Technical analysis of stock trends by Edwards and
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Options and their price action analysis.
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This friend had trouble making money in options though he was directionally right. Let us see how a basic understanding of greeks would have helped him, This thread will be about two attributes of option pricing, extrinsic value and theta


An option has two parts, intrinsic and extrinsic value. Think of a pack of Lay's potato chips. When you buy and open the pack, what you find is some chips and a lot of air. Intrinsic value is the chips, extrinsic value is air


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When I first started learning different option strategies, long straddles seemed the easiest and the way to riches without any significant risk.

Simply buy a CE and PE of same strike before an event, whichever way rhe stock moves post event you make money

But real life is a tougher place, so this did not work in practice 🤣

Vols went up before event pricing in the risk, and since vols over estimate event impact in general, majority of the time there is a vol crush post event and straddles lose money. ( this is why sellers sell)

But the markets now is a strange place. Vols refuse to go up before an event. We have GDP data today evening and Gujarat election results within next weekly expiry. The cost is 1.3% of Nifty for the next week straddle with 8DTE .

So whoever is selling this straddle does not expect Nifty to move 1.3% from here, either up or down within next Thursday? Does not make sense.
Vols not rising before event makes it a no brainer to buy this straddle

With vols not going up before event and with such low vols, chances of further vol crush are slim. Plus, even if markets now go up further, I think traders will get a bit nervous/fearful pushing vols up.

Let's see whether my thesis works out 🙏
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This is actually an interesting question and a correct observation. Many people before you also have made this observation, so I am going to explain this the best I can


I am trading since badla days. There being long meant you had to pay badla / interest and being short meant you received badla. Similar to an options buyer having theta burn and an options seller being theta positive. So the bias among pros were being short bit

Now, as of now I am an options buyer. All my strategies are geared towards options buying, so I have a theta burn continuosly. I do use strategies to cover that a bit, but still the burn is there

Now, let's consider how an options buyer makes money. His enemy is theta, vega can be friend or enemy ( coming to this in next tweet) , Delta is whether his view is right or wrong

Now say I am bullish on BNF and I buy calls and I am directionally correct . As BNF goes up, generally IV will decrease. This leads to a double whammy.
1. Vega hurts me
2. Theta decay increases.
So, the position does give money, but slowly
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