Negative emotions of seeing your stocks drop > Positive emotion from seeing your stocks rise.
2 weeks ago, I started reading "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Taleb.
WOW, It's been mindblowing!
Thanks to @dvassallo 's recommendation.
Inside, there's a part he talks about how to deal with volatility.
Here’s 6 big lessons that are useful in the current market crash:
Negative emotions of seeing your stocks drop > Positive emotion from seeing your stocks rise.
Some psychologists estimate the negative effect for an average loss to be up to 2.5 the magnitude of a positive one)...
If the unpleasurable minute is worse in reverse pleasure than the pleasurable minute is in pleasure terms, then the dentist incurs a large deficit when examining his performance at a high frequency."
When we zoom out and check the prices less frequently, we are less affected by negative emotions.
Because over a longer time horizon, the market tends to rise more than it goes down.
As 67% of his months will be positive, he incurs only four pangs of pain per annum and eight uplifting experiences...
Now consider the dentist looking at his performance only every year.
Over the next 20 years that he is expected to live, he will experience 19 pleasant surprises for every unpleasant one!
The dentist did better when he dealt with monthly statements rather than more frequent ones.
Perhaps it would be even better for him if he limited himself to yearly statements."
When we look at something too closely, we tend to mix up the signal with all the noise.
We end up focusing on all the movements that may not carry much useful information at all!
In other words, one sees the variance, little else.
I always remind myself that what one observes is at best a combination of variance and returns, not just returns"
It’s hard to fight our human emotions of fear.
Instead, it’s wiser to just create an environment where we are not exposed to such noise that affect our decision making.
But I deal with it by having no access to information, except in rare circumstances.
Again, I prefer to read poetry. If an event is important enough, it will find its way to my ears...
Mostly that I am incapable of taming my emotions facing news and incapable of seeing a performance with a clear head.
Silence is far better."
Don't read the news.
It’s full of noise because of how much data it contains.
Instead, spend more time studying history as it’s more zoomed out.
This explains why I prefer not to read the newspaper (outside of the obituary), and why I never chitchat about markets."
The actions we take after seeing a loss is different from the actions we take after seeing a gain.
This could cause us to make sub optimal decisions
The degree of rationality in decisions made subsequent to a gain is extremely different from the one after a loss."
I share how I crossed 7 figures before age 30, and achieved my own version of financial freedom.
Stuff I tweet about:
• My investing strategy
• Books that inspire me
• How I built high income skills i.e. public speaking
More from Max Koh
In just 3-4 hours:
Overview:
1. Find a sexy angle
2. Analyze the financials
3. Read the annual report
4. Get skin in the game
5. Read earnings calls
6. Understand the leader
7. Understand value prop
8. Read analysis by others
9. Monitor execution
10. Maintenance due diligence
Lets go!
1. Find a sexy story or angle
This is how I begin my research.
It starts with either:
• a product
• a story
• a founder
... that gets me curious.
I think stock screeners are helpful...
But I don’t use them.
I prefer to research companies that genuinely excite me.
2. Analyze the financials
I then proceed to analyze the numbers for the last 2-3 years.
Which is about 8-12 quarters.
Stuff like:
- Revenue growth
- Gross and EBIT margins
- Key customer metrics
- Free cash flow
Seeing the numbers tells me a story.
3. Read the annual report
If the numbers and story are exciting...
I dig deeper into the business through the 10K.
I want to understand the business model...
How they make money...
And the customers they serve.
A step by step guide for
How to read an Annual Report in 1 hour.
— Max Koh (@heymaxkoh) April 4, 2022
A step by step guide for busy people:
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Like company moats, your personal moat should be a competitive advantage that is not only durable—it should also compound over time.
Characteristics of a personal moat below:
I'm increasingly interested in the idea of "personal moats" in the context of careers.
— Erik Torenberg (@eriktorenberg) November 22, 2018
Moats should be:
- Hard to learn and hard to do (but perhaps easier for you)
- Skills that are rare and valuable
- Legible
- Compounding over time
- Unique to your own talents & interests https://t.co/bB3k1YcH5b
2/ Like a company moat, you want to build career capital while you sleep.
As Andrew Chen noted:
People talk about \u201cpassive income\u201d a lot but not about \u201cpassive social capital\u201d or \u201cpassive networking\u201d or \u201cpassive knowledge gaining\u201d but that\u2019s what you can architect if you have a thing and it grows over time without intensive constant effort to sustain it
— Andrew Chen (@andrewchen) November 22, 2018
3/ You don’t want to build a competitive advantage that is fleeting or that will get commoditized
Things that might get commoditized over time (some longer than
Things that look like moats but likely aren\u2019t or may fade:
— Erik Torenberg (@eriktorenberg) November 22, 2018
- Proprietary networks
- Being something other than one of the best at any tournament style-game
- Many "awards"
- Twitter followers or general reach without "respect"
- Anything that depends on information asymmetry https://t.co/abjxesVIh9
4/ Before the arrival of recorded music, what used to be scarce was the actual music itself — required an in-person artist.
After recorded music, the music itself became abundant and what became scarce was curation, distribution, and self space.
5/ Similarly, in careers, what used to be (more) scarce were things like ideas, money, and exclusive relationships.
In the internet economy, what has become scarce are things like specific knowledge, rare & valuable skills, and great reputations.
A small tribute/gift to members
Screeners
technical screeners - intraday and positional both
before proceeding - i have helped you , can i ask you so that it can help someone else too
thank you
positional one
run - find #stock - draw chart - find levels
1- Stocks closing daily 2% up from 5 days
https://t.co/gTZrYY3Nht
2- Weekly breakout
https://t.co/1f4ahEolYB
3- Breakouts in short term
https://t.co/BI4h0CdgO2
4- Bullish from last 5
intraday screeners
5- 15 minute Stock Breakouts
https://t.co/9eAo82iuNv
6- Intraday Buying seen in the past 15 minutes
https://t.co/XqAJKhLB5G
7- Stocks trading near day's high on 5 min chart with volume BO intraday
https://t.co/flHmm6QXmo
Thank you