You can simply wait for great businesses to be mispriced.
And then pounce when that happens.
In the meanwhile, don't dilute your portfolio with simply "good ideas"
Only accept the "great" ones
"The best investments comes from the best businesses"
One of the investors who's made a big impact on me:
@JohnHuber72 of Saber Capital
I spent days pouring thru his articles and interviews in my early days...
Even had a doc with 20 pages of notes!
Here's my top 15 lessons:
You can simply wait for great businesses to be mispriced.
And then pounce when that happens.
In the meanwhile, don't dilute your portfolio with simply "good ideas"
Only accept the "great" ones
• Easy to understand businesses
• Generate lots of FCF
• Partner with good management teams
And then...
Sit back and WAIT for the fat pitch
John is okay with not making 10x returns in a short time.
And he has come to accept that.
Every investment strategy comes with its own features.
The key is knowing what they are and making sure it fits your personality.
This was taken from John's 2016 letter...
1 year results can be random.
Don't feel too sad if you underperform...
Or get too confident when you outperform.
Zoom out and look at your performance over multi year periods instead.
Don't just understand the moat or business model.
Seek to see things from the customer POV.
Why do customers use their products over others?
What is the value that people see in them?
Some businesses can be great...
But they are profiting off their customers' reliance on them.
They abuse their bargaining power.
These short term profits usually don't last long.
With so much focus purely on the next quarter...
It creates a lot of opportunities for investors who are not playing that game.
They can afford to buy into "weakness"...
They can afford to wait.
Information is useful.
It helps you see where the company is trending the next few months.
It could even be profitable to invest that way.
But it also makes you think short term.
Be careful of placing too much weight on recent news.
You profit when you are willing to:
• buy the stock of a high quality company...
• when it is likely going to drop further in the short run
There is huge uncertainty.
But the risk is actually low.
Nobody wants to buy a stock that will go down in the next 3 months...
Even if it will be worth way much more in 3 years.
That's the price you pay to find and ride big winners.
Are you willing to pay that price?
Most investors are not.
The old school way of viewing moats as a fortress no longer stands.
Consumers today have much more choice.
The internet has given them power.
The best moat is a business who keeps giving more value to the customer over time.
It's no longer about brand advantages...
Distribution advantages...
Or dominating shelf space in a super market.
It's about whether customers genuinely feel happy buying from you
It develops pattern recognition.
Widens your mosaic of dots in your head...
Which then widens your opportunity set.
Plus, it gives you a blueprint of what future great businesses look like.
John's biggest positions are not those with the highest possible return.
It's those he thinks have the lowest chance of losing $$.
Not from paying the wrong price
Always start with businesses that would first pass your quality filter.
I share how I crossed 7 figures before age 30 by investing in great companies.
Stuff I tweet about:
• My investing strategy
• Books that inspire me
• Stuff on personal growth
Geez. You really like me huh?
Then you should subscribe to my blog.
I write about all things Money, Investing, Financial Freedom.
But I'm lazy. So don't expect daily articles.
I write when inspiration strikes.
Or when I'm drunk.
https://t.co/vWvVqSnE0Y
One of my favourites I've listened to multiple times.
https://t.co/mG7wvqXCnj
More from Max Koh
I'm lucky to attain financial freedom before 30.
I credit Fintwit for my learnings.
Here's 10 key concepts every investor must know:
1. $$ needed to retire
2. Researching a business
3. Reading annual reports
4. Reading earnings calls
5. Criteria of a multi bagger
(Read on...)
6. Holding a multi bagger
7. Economic moats
8. When to buy a stock
9. Earnings vs cashflow
10. Traits of quality companies
Here's my 10 favourite threads on these concepts:
1. How much $$ do you need to retire
Before you start, you must know the end game.
To meet your retirement goals...
How much $$ do you need in your portfolio?
10-K Diver does a good job explaining what's a safe withdrawl rate.
Hint: It's NOT
2. Research a business
Your investment returns are a lagging indicator.
Instead, your research skills are the leading predictor of your results.
Conclusion?
To be a good investor, you must be a great business researcher.
Start with
3. Reading annual reports
This is the bread and butter of a good business analyst.
You cannot just listen to opinions from others.
You must learn to deep dive a business and make your own judgments.
Start with the 10k.
Ming Zhao explains it
I credit Fintwit for my learnings.
Here's 10 key concepts every investor must know:
1. $$ needed to retire
2. Researching a business
3. Reading annual reports
4. Reading earnings calls
5. Criteria of a multi bagger
(Read on...)
6. Holding a multi bagger
7. Economic moats
8. When to buy a stock
9. Earnings vs cashflow
10. Traits of quality companies
Here's my 10 favourite threads on these concepts:
1. How much $$ do you need to retire
Before you start, you must know the end game.
To meet your retirement goals...
How much $$ do you need in your portfolio?
10-K Diver does a good job explaining what's a safe withdrawl rate.
Hint: It's NOT
1/
— 10-K Diver (@10kdiver) July 25, 2020
Get a cup of coffee.
In this thread, I'll help you work out how much money you need to retire.
2. Research a business
Your investment returns are a lagging indicator.
Instead, your research skills are the leading predictor of your results.
Conclusion?
To be a good investor, you must be a great business researcher.
Start with
1/ Thoughts on Research Process
— Mostly Borrowed Ideas (@borrowed_ideas) September 27, 2021
I was invited to present my research process at a college in the US. I am sharing all ten slides here. pic.twitter.com/z0tjZcogfH
3. Reading annual reports
This is the bread and butter of a good business analyst.
You cannot just listen to opinions from others.
You must learn to deep dive a business and make your own judgments.
Start with the 10k.
Ming Zhao explains it
\U0001f9d0How to Read 10Ks Like a Hedge Fund\U0001f9d0
— Ming Zhao (@FabiusMercurius) May 7, 2021
\u201cFundamentals don\u2019t matter anymore!\u201d I\u2019ve heard this a lot lately on Fintwit.\U0001f644
But, for those who\u2019ve diversify beyond $GME and $DOGE, here\u2019s a primer on what metrics fundamental buy-side PMs look at and why:
(real examples outlined)
\U0001f447 pic.twitter.com/tLlNRvpnDK
10 super simple steps to research a stock.
In just 3-4 hours:
Overview:
1. Find a sexy angle
2. Analyze the financials
3. Read the annual report
4. Get skin in the game
5. Read earnings calls
6. Understand the leader
7. Understand value prop
8. Read analysis by others
9. Monitor execution
10. Maintenance due diligence
Lets go!
1. Find a sexy story or angle
This is how I begin my research.
It starts with either:
• a product
• a story
• a founder
... that gets me curious.
I think stock screeners are helpful...
But I don’t use them.
I prefer to research companies that genuinely excite me.
2. Analyze the financials
I then proceed to analyze the numbers for the last 2-3 years.
Which is about 8-12 quarters.
Stuff like:
- Revenue growth
- Gross and EBIT margins
- Key customer metrics
- Free cash flow
Seeing the numbers tells me a story.
3. Read the annual report
If the numbers and story are exciting...
I dig deeper into the business through the 10K.
I want to understand the business model...
How they make money...
And the customers they serve.
A step by step guide for
In just 3-4 hours:
Overview:
1. Find a sexy angle
2. Analyze the financials
3. Read the annual report
4. Get skin in the game
5. Read earnings calls
6. Understand the leader
7. Understand value prop
8. Read analysis by others
9. Monitor execution
10. Maintenance due diligence
Lets go!
1. Find a sexy story or angle
This is how I begin my research.
It starts with either:
• a product
• a story
• a founder
... that gets me curious.
I think stock screeners are helpful...
But I don’t use them.
I prefer to research companies that genuinely excite me.
2. Analyze the financials
I then proceed to analyze the numbers for the last 2-3 years.
Which is about 8-12 quarters.
Stuff like:
- Revenue growth
- Gross and EBIT margins
- Key customer metrics
- Free cash flow
Seeing the numbers tells me a story.
3. Read the annual report
If the numbers and story are exciting...
I dig deeper into the business through the 10K.
I want to understand the business model...
How they make money...
And the customers they serve.
A step by step guide for
How to read an Annual Report in 1 hour.
— Max Koh (@heymaxkoh) April 4, 2022
A step by step guide for busy people:
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A THREAD ON @SarangSood
Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.
Have covered:
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
2. Workbook
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen
1. Keeps following volatility super closely.
Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.
Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.
2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.
3. If you're an options seller then sell only when volatility is dropping, there is a high probability of you making the right trade and getting profit as a result
He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.
4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega
Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.
Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.
Have covered:
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
2. Workbook
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen
1. Keeps following volatility super closely.
Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.
Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.
I am quite different from your style. I follow the market's volatility very closely. I have mock positions in 7-8 different strategies which allows me to stay connected. Whichever gives best profit is usually the one i trade in.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) August 13, 2019
2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.
Anilji most of the time these days Theta only falls when market moves. So the Theta actually falls where market has moved to, not where our position was in the first place. By shifting we can come close to capturing the Theta fall but not always.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) June 24, 2019
3. If you're an options seller then sell only when volatility is dropping, there is a high probability of you making the right trade and getting profit as a result
He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.
This week has been great so far. The main aim is to be in the right side of the volatility, rest the market will reward.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) July 3, 2019
4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega
Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.
There is a difference between theta decay & fall in vega. Decay is certain but there is no guaranteed profit as delta moves can increase cost. Fall in vega on the other hand is backed by a powerful force that sells options and gives handsome returns. Our job is to identify them.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) February 12, 2020