Just as no amount of flat temperature data would dissuade the climate cult, so no amount of flat (or even negative!) data on mask effectiveness will shake the faith of the Church of Covid. Beautiful Theories cannot be disproven by mere information.

Ever since 9/11, we've been instructed that tiny minorities of extremists are solely responsible for their reprehensible actions. There was no greater sin than blaming law-abiding people who share some of their beliefs.

That's how we got the "lone wolf terrorist" cliche. A great herd of lone wolves swept across the world, each completely isolated from anything but the most direct support for their heinous deeds. "Tiny minorities of extremists" were blamed for "hijacking" the beliefs of millions.

The Western world did backflips to completely firewall the actions of terrorists from the larger bodies of people they claimed to represent. We hired a legion of consultants to show us exactly where the line between extremism and legitimate belief was drawn.

We wouldn't even name the adversaries of civilization. We declared a "global war" on their methods, to avoid criticizing their beliefs. The Obama administration launched a huge, expensive "Countering Violent Extremism" initiative that pointedly treated extremism as generic.

The greatest of pains were taken to draw very sharp and bright lines between violent extremism and even the most provocative and incendiary acts of legitimate speech and political organization. This was true of the race riots in the Obama years, as well as terrorism.

Every modern effort to crush free speech begins as a crusade against "disinformation." China's massive Internet censorship apparatus was initially justified as an effort to control the spread of false information, and the Chinese state still describes it that way.

Censors begin by claiming that they only want to control the spread of deliberate falsehoods and push back against propaganda campaigns. They always begin by saying their primary concern is disinformation spread by hostile foreign powers. China constantly says that to this day.

The definition of "disinformation" begins to expand as the censors seek more power. Soon they aren't just going after DELIBERATE falsehoods pushed by malevolent conspiracies - they're suppressing everything from honest mistakes to predictions and "wrong" opinions.

It soon becomes clear that the censorship rules - like all other rules in totalitarian societies - are not applied evenly. The ruling party and its friends are judged much less harshly than dissidents. They get far more latitude to make unfounded statements or outright lies.

The censors move on, suppressing not just "disinformation" or demonstrably false statements, but even completely true statements that lack some vital "context." The censors declare that even pure truth is deceptive when it's not packaged and delivered "correctly."

I worked late into the night on Election Day 2016. I remember the shocking news of Trump's victory reaching Clinton campaign headquarters, her supporters howling in anguish and sobbing. Many of those images have been sarcastically memed over the years since that night.

Panic has always been a valuable political resource, but 2020 was the year our ruling class perfected the art of harvesting it, renewing it, and refining it to weapons-grade purity.

The bitter irony is that one reason panic became so easy for politicians and grifters to sow and reap is the great collapse in confidence caused by their own incompetence and greed over the past few decades. The political class found a way to profit from its own ineptitude.

If public confidence in government and major institutions had not been so thoroughly shaken by years of rampant corruption and incredibly expensive failures, perhaps the public would not have been panicked so easily - and profitably! - when the coronavirus struck.

Even as public confidence collapsed and paranoia grew, social media came along to make our society more twitchy and neurotic. We argue constantly about the spread of "disinformation," but not enough about how social media rewards irrationality and performative emotionalism.

Panic and social media both nourish the human herd instinct, and herds respond to loud noises, not reasonable arguments. Our society was panicking over far less important and dangerous things before Covid-19 arrived. We were panicking over some bizarre social issue every week.

An important lesson of the post-Cold War era, learned far too late: allowing totalitarian regimes to interface with the political, economic, and media systems of free nations is like installing a dangerous virus on a computer.

The suicidal folly of globalism was believing the reverse: that freedom and democracy would leak into totalitarian systems and produce quiet revolutions. As we know after 30 years of disastrous experimentation, tyranny is FAR more viral than liberty in the modern world.

Tyranny, like a computer virus, breaks all the rules that allow free markets and democracies to function. Tyranny ruthlessly exploits "weaknesses" in the code of free systems, working from beyond the reach of the legal or social enforcement systems in targeted nations.

Tyrannical nations use brutal methods to extract value from their people, then invest that value to target and destroy industries in free countries, taking control of important supply chains with production unencumbered by the costs free societies impose on their companies.

Tyrannical nations easily overwhelm the media of free societies with propaganda, ideological content and official lies. A tyranny can run op-eds in free-world newspapers while silencing all dissent, both foreign and domestic, in its own state media.

What were the big energy and climate surprises of the Trump era? Four years ago, I described the most plausible arc for US climate policy under Trump (it was a boring, safe bet) but expected there'd be unexpected developments too. So how about a look back? https://t.co/1Valz4eTEg

1) The pandemic was a huge surprise, obviously, though maybe it's too early to say how that will affect the energy/climate landscape. So far, it’s put a brake on U.S. fracking and induced Europe to pledge staggering sums on hydrogen. Maybe global CO2 emissions have peaked, idk.

2) The growth of battery storage on the US grid has, I think, been a surprise. This interview with @jburwen does a nice job of laying out the truly staggering changes in the storage landscape since 2015, driven by falling costs and some key policy changes.

3) The impact of the IPCC report on 1.5°C was surprising to me. I often wondered what'd happen once it became clear that the world was unlikely to stay below 2°C. Instead, the climate community and world leaders rallied around an even more aggressive, harder to hit target!

4) It was not obvious that Trump's retreat from climate action would spur states, cities, companies, other nations to make even more aggressive net zero pledges of their own. But that’s what happened—those pledges have really proliferated at a scale that’s been surprising to me.

Thread on snow ratios. The snow ratio, or snow-to-liquid ratio states how many inches of snow, when melted, yields one inch of liquid water. Ratios are usually around 10:1 or 12:1, but can vary from as little as 6:1 or as high as 30:1, or sometimes more. 1/

There's a common misunderstanding that the colder the surface temp is, the higher the snow ratio will be (fluffier snow). This is incorrect. As long is the surface temp is not close to freezing, it really doesn't matter all that much. 2/

As the surface temp gets close to or exceeds freezing, more snow is lost to melting, yielding lower ratios and heavy, wet snow. The same reasoning also applies to temps above the ground; if they exceed freezing, sleet or rain can mix with the snow, dramatically lowering ratios 3/

Much more important is the dendritic growth zone (DGZ), the layer of the atmosphere with temperatures between -12 and -18C. In this layer, snowflakes grow as dendrites, which can easily clump together into aggregates, which contain a lot of air, increasing the ratio 4/

At warmer or colder temps, the flakes grow as plates, columns, or needles, which don't clump together as well and contain less air, lowering the ratio. To make this even more complicated, there's also a dependence on atmospheric humidity. 5/

Lately, I have been very disturbed with the whole #climatecrisis. Every day some new naturally unnatural calamity looms over our head.
The ice caps are turning in cold rocks and I end up in a rabbit hole feeling helpless.
1/n

It just sucks to imagine a #future where the only way people can enjoy nature as you and I did via #hiking etc is to read blogs and watch videos.
That sucks on so many levels.
2/n

And when I think about the reasons for this situation. I can't seem to go any further but to pin it on #consumption.
Not just fashion or lifestyle consumption. But any damn product.
From the smallest sewing pin to the giant #spaceships.
3/n

Because let's get real. Everything is one or the other form of a natural resource. Even synthetic product like plastic needs cellulose, coal etc. And so far, the only legit source of natural resources is digging deep into the Earth.
4/n

So you dig up these resources and turn them into the products we consume. The shirts, jeans, bike, laptop, phone etc. Everything is made from nature. Along the way creating jobs and the so-called development.
But how good is this #development?
Moreover is this #Sustainable?
5/n

#AirPollution, measured by annual PM2.5--particles finer than a human hair--reduced in bigger cities such as Delhi & Varanasi but increased in smaller cities such as Fatehabad & Moradabad, finds a @CSEINDIA analysis of 26 cities. Follow the thread for insights:

In many cities in the upper Indo-Gangetic plains, avg PM2.5 levels were above 2019 levels. #AirPollution in Fatehabad, in northern Haryana, deteriorated the most, with PM2.5 levels increasing 35% from 2019

The %age of PM2.5 in the coarser PM10--which determines air toxicity--was in the high 40s in Oct & remained so in Nov, averaging 55% in Amritsar, 48% in Chandigarh & 53% in Patna. It reached 64% in Amritsar, 69% in Chandigarh & 62% in Patna during #Diwali2020

#AirPollution reduced the most in Sirsa, 40km from Fatehabad, with a 44% lower avg PM2.5 2020 level vs 2019. This massive variation can’t be attributed to meteorology & has to do with local factors such as stubble burning, Avikal Somvanshi, CSE prog mgr, said in a press release

PM2.5 avg in Nov 2020 was 310% higher in Fatehabad, 104% in Agra and 57% in Kaithal, compared to November 2019