Categories Climate change
A thread: 1/19
The paper's headline number is that we previously thought the world was committed to 1.3C warming, but that number is actually over 2C (> 1.5C by 2100). This is quite a different message than we get from Earth System Models, which suggest committed warming is only ~1.2C. 2/19
This would imply that the 1.5C by 2100 target is effectively impossible, and that long-term warming of >2C would be very difficult to avoid. However, the devil is in the details, and the picture is not quite as dire as it would seem at first glance. 3/19
When we talk about "committed warming" folks are generally talking about one of two scenarios: either constant CO2 and other GHG concentrations (and forcings), or getting all emissions (or just CO2 emissions) down to zero immediately. 4/19
In the first method – constant concentrations – we find that the world warms up another 0.5C or so, as the oceans continue to take up heat as more energy is being trapped by greenhouse gases than is being emitted back to space. Much of this additional warming happens by 2100 5/19
The "Covid emergency" will never be over. It will mutate and seek out new missions when this particular virus threat abates, repurposing its funding and clinging to its power. They're already talking up the "next pandemic" and how we must forever remain at DEFCON 2 to be ready.
Masks are now a visible and tangible symbol of an entire agenda. Its champions will use every means possible to force you to wear them forever, including corporate pressure, their new favorite tool. Expect commercial mask requirements to linger, especially big corporations.
True believers, meanwhile, will wear their masks with grim determination and scowl ostentatiously at everyone who refuses to join them. It's a new virtue signal that will not go away any time soon. Mask scolding is a quick, easy, heady power rush.
All the while, studies will keep rolling out that masks don't help, and might even hurt. That was fairly common medical knowledge before the pandemic began, but it was aggressively suppressed when masks became a political symbol, and a totem for people desperate to DO SOMETHING.
The Earth is greening, thanks to elevated CO2 -- especially in arid
@ianrowley677 @chimera414 @BrknMan @ancistroneura @sueytonius @swcrisis @eloarefab @BailFund_Brawl @IngersolRobert @OscarsWild1 @RuleByLogic @KCTaz @Kenneth72712993 @alshalloway @ClimatePatriot @joetheatheistp @insane_voice @TheDisproof @Ceist8 @BradPKeyes @Fauntleroy1934 @DawnTJ90 @Jamz129 @JsharkJill @Tangomitteckel @joedieseldodge @BadgersNo @fknsavages27 @SimonPearson961 @JoeTheAtheist @CMorrisonEsq @maya_phd @CymaticWave @Schtickery @ClimateDepot @stevenmosher @Willard1951 @Tokyo_Tom @jc_Craze @DanCady @PolAnimalAus @ZombiePiano @SimonMaxfield8 @CrangusShish @Gladfly1 @AtomsksSanakan @leonardjcohen @FrankWi74044551 @NatGeo [2/14] NASA measures it, from
@ianrowley677 @chimera414 @BrknMan @ancistroneura @sueytonius @swcrisis @eloarefab @BailFund_Brawl @IngersolRobert @OscarsWild1 @RuleByLogic @KCTaz @Kenneth72712993 @alshalloway @ClimatePatriot @joetheatheistp @insane_voice @TheDisproof @Ceist8 @BradPKeyes @Fauntleroy1934 @DawnTJ90 @Jamz129 @JsharkJill @Tangomitteckel @joedieseldodge @BadgersNo @fknsavages27 @SimonPearson961 @JoeTheAtheist @CMorrisonEsq @maya_phd @CymaticWave @Schtickery @ClimateDepot @stevenmosher @Willard1951 @Tokyo_Tom @jc_Craze @DanCady @PolAnimalAus @ZombiePiano @SimonMaxfield8 @CrangusShish @Gladfly1 @AtomsksSanakan @leonardjcohen @FrankWi74044551 [3/14] @NatGeo used to be better. In 2009 they reported, "Vast swaths of North Africa are getting noticeably lusher due to warming temperatures, new satellite images show, suggesting a possible boon for people living in the driest part of the
@ianrowley677 @chimera414 @BrknMan @ancistroneura @sueytonius @swcrisis @eloarefab @BailFund_Brawl @IngersolRobert @OscarsWild1 @RuleByLogic @KCTaz @Kenneth72712993 @alshalloway @ClimatePatriot @joetheatheistp @insane_voice @TheDisproof @Ceist8 @BradPKeyes @Fauntleroy1934 @DawnTJ90 @Jamz129 @JsharkJill @Tangomitteckel @joedieseldodge @BadgersNo @fknsavages27 @SimonPearson961 @JoeTheAtheist @CMorrisonEsq @maya_phd @CymaticWave @Schtickery @ClimateDepot @stevenmosher @Willard1951 @Tokyo_Tom @jc_Craze @DanCady @PolAnimalAus @ZombiePiano @SimonMaxfield8 @CrangusShish @Gladfly1 @AtomsksSanakan @leonardjcohen @FrankWi74044551 [4/14] @NewScientist reported the "remarkable environmental turnaround," including a “quite spectacular regeneration of vegetation,” and "a 70 per cent increase in yields of local cereals such as sorghum and millet in one province in recent
@ianrowley677 @chimera414 @BrknMan @ancistroneura @sueytonius @swcrisis @eloarefab @BailFund_Brawl @IngersolRobert @OscarsWild1 @RuleByLogic @KCTaz @Kenneth72712993 @alshalloway @ClimatePatriot @joetheatheistp @insane_voice @TheDisproof @Ceist8 @BradPKeyes @Fauntleroy1934 @DawnTJ90 @Jamz129 @JsharkJill @Tangomitteckel @joedieseldodge @BadgersNo @fknsavages27 @SimonPearson961 @JoeTheAtheist @CMorrisonEsq @maya_phd @CymaticWave @Schtickery @ClimateDepot @stevenmosher @Willard1951 @Tokyo_Tom @jc_Craze @DanCady @PolAnimalAus @ZombiePiano @SimonMaxfield8 @CrangusShish @Gladfly1 @AtomsksSanakan @leonardjcohen @FrankWi74044551 @newscientist [5/14] Note that sorghum & millet are C4 plants. It was once thought that, unlike C3 plants, C4 plants would benefit little from rising CO2 levels. But C4 crops are favored for their drought-hardiness, &eCO2 is especially beneficial under dry
Rising CO2 levels mitigate drought impacts. Elevated CO2 (eCO2) helps plants use water more efficiently, by improving CO2 stomatal conductance relative to transpiration. It's especially helpful in arid regions & during drought. Here's a paper about corn:https://t.co/lZ0wL4Gnvn— Dave Burton \u274c (@ncdave4life) August 19, 2020
Much of the debate over "liberty" can be summed up as "you do you" - I'll swing my arm over here, you keep your nose over there, and so long as we both respect each others' "freedom," I won't punch you in the nose and your nose will remain unpunched.
This breaks down when applied to epidemiology: "You wear your mask, I'll leave mine at home, and we'll both exercise our freedoms" is like "You swim in the no-pissing end of the pool, I'll swim down here in the pissing end, and we'll both get our way."
We're in the same epidemiological pool, and the science is clear: masking's benefit is primarily in protecting others from you - your presymptomatic, asymptomatic (or symptomatic) spread of particles. Your decision not to wear a mask puts me in danger.
If your worldview ascribes political outcomes to individual choices (implying that poverty or misfortune are the result of a combination of laziness and inferiority), then anything that demands a systemic view challenges its very foundations.
On Saturday 12/12/20 I saw this on a Facebook group of which I am a member. The comment from the poster mentioned it was taken near Langholm in Dumfriesshire.
It appears to show the use of a forestry plough peat soil
I'm partisan enough to admit that my initial idea was that this might be on Langholm Moor which was the site of a controversial experiment in grouse moor management. I contacted the poster and he sent me this map of the location. Which is not on Langholm Moor 3/19
The location is significant. But before I go into it, a quick explanation of what you are looking at. This photo shows peat ploughed with double mould board forestry plough. Trees are planted on the ridges thrown up, while the furrow drains water. 4/19
The cut in the centre of the furrow is from a 'tine' breaking up a hardened layer of subsoil called an 'ironpan' which inhibits root development. The presence of this pan is the justification for ploughing rather than 'mounding' this site 5/19
📽️ https://t.co/i02FtSkJT8 📽️
Well worth watching. Otherwise, here's a summary thread 👇
Want scientific assessment of what Scotland should do to achieve Paris Agreement temperature targets? Look to carbon budgets. See that a failure to rapidly reduce emissions will eat up the carbon budget in just a few years, leaving impossible burdens for future generations. 2/10
Are UK emissions down 45% in 30 years? Not when including emissions from aviation & shipping, and imports & exports – then they are only down 10%. Over three decades, we have had reductions of less than 0.5% per year. 3/10
Scotland’s average per person consumption emissions are still double the global average. Scotland’s consumption emissions have not meaningfully reduced in the last 20 years… 4/10
Principles of global equity and justice mean that Scotland’s fair slice of the global carbon budget is just a few hundred million tonnes of CO2, which is less than ten years of Scotland’s emissions at current levels. 5/10
Feedback loops created by permafrost melt & wildfire destruction represent just a few of the terrifying effects of climate change on boreal forest ecosystems, which are particularly at risk to rising temperatures. ⚠️🔥
Massive wildfires are already here.
More forest fires are burning in the Arctic in recent years than any time in the last 10,000 years.
🔺these massive arctic fires are showing worrying signs of becoming a vicious cycle
Wildfire-related carbon releases from permafrost regions will quadruple within decades.
Arctic wildfires, impacted by global warming, are in turn contributing to more climate breakdown.
🔺An increase in boreal & tundra fires in the future will enhance permafrost thawing.
Below I am adding to the list including several newly documented mechanisms.
1. Heat stress reducing crop yields https://t.co/7SNN00rNox\xa0— Jim Baird (@JimBair62221006) February 14, 2020
2. Heat stress on farmers (sometimes fatal) https://t.co/jYKjwATe5S, https://t.co/wtcp0kT8Wk\xa0
3. Heat stress on livestock (often fatal) https://t.co/MxogLlksC2, https://t.co/RiJ0A7ezld, https://t.co/rGX2UTTUJM
Several primary impacts relate to altered soil & plant chemistry & biology:
1. Disruption of the phosphorous cycle - the second most vital element for plants after nitrogen
2. Decreased content of key nutrients in major
3. Reduced chill hours required for many plants to bloom normally in the
Other additional primary impacts include:
4. Fossil fuel pollution impacts on crops - this is not a result of climate change per se, but is included since it is due to the same root cause (fossil fuel use):
'future warming and unmitigated ozone pollution in the US, could cause a decline\xa0of 13% in wheat crops, 28% in soybean yield, and 43% in maize by 2050'— Jim Baird (@JimBair62221006) September 19, 2020
& in India, ozone is 'killing crops that could feed 94 million'#ClimateCrisis #AirPollutionhttps://t.co/T3iTCj5C0X
I really don’t want to spread 120,000 plastic tree guards across the side of our lovely hill, the hill where I grew up and now farm, on the eastern edge of the Black Mountains. So, I’ve taken a good look at the pros,... 1/25
the cons and the alternatives, to try and decide rationally, which is the best approach for our plant on the Bryn Arw.
It has become the accepted norm in the UK that to plant a tree, you need to put your sapling in the ground and then wrap a plastic tree guard around it.
This is simply ‘how it’s done’ now. This practice uses a huge amount of plastic; worse still, it disperses plastic extremely efficiently around the countryside. In some rural places, un-retrieved tree guards are by far the biggest source of plastic pollution.
And yet the first commercial plastic tree guards only came on the market 38 years ago. There are many perfectly healthy woodlands and trees that are older than this, and which became established without plastic – which begs the question: do we really need guards?
Plastic tree guards have several uses, some of which did revolutionise tree planting when they first came out. In particular, they:
•protect your saplings from things that want to eat them;
•provide a microclimate, which enhances tree growth, according to the manufacturers;
Preventing emissions vs improving water quality,
Which one better?
What is the Difference?
We certainly often hear the term better to prevent than cure. Of course, we all agree on that. But what about improving quality, is that better than preventing?
A researcher named Dan Pan tries to compare 2 different regulations on environmental impacts.
One of the regulations is based on environmental quality limits. the other is based on the market, but we will call it improving water quality because it gives reward and punishment on environmental performance.
• Restrictions or closings of companies that violate environmental quality standards
• Restricted areas must protect their water
• Implementing comprehensive water conservation
• Strengthens water recovery and protection
Improving water quality
Give awards to mayors whose evaluation scores are good, and adequate, whose evaluations are bad. There are several parameters defined in determining water quality such as: COD intensity, water quality, and industrial wastewater standards
Our recommended Sixth Carbon Budget would achieve well over half of the required emissions reduction to 2050 in the next 15 years, but decisive action must start today. (2/12) #UKCarbonBudget
The recommended Sixth Carbon Budget and UK NDC also reflect the goals and requirements of the Paris Agreement, recognising the UK’s responsibility as a richer developed nation and its respective capabilities. (3/12) #UKCarbonBudget
When we recommended the UK’s #NetZero target for 2050, we demonstrated that any negative economic impact was likely to be small and the overall impact could turn out to be positive. Our analysis for this report reinforces that finding. (4/12) #UKCarbonBudget
Our estimate of the annualised resource cost (which measures the net additional cost each year to deliver the same services with lower emissions) has fallen to less than 1% of GDP through to 2050. (5/12) #UKCarbonBudget
At the moment, POTUS is sitting on a stack of Trump cards that he's just waiting to unleash...a royal flush!
@John_F_Kennnedy @Pamelal33566076 @GeorgePapa19 @whitebunny @atvguy @stormis_us
He has court cases that will go to the Supreme Court and thanks to the Texas case, he's now aware how to file them properly... under article 3 not 2...
so the SCOTUS will be forced to listen.....He now has the DNI report. Barr stepped down and can now be a witness.....he did his job. Durham is special counsel and can prosecute, in any state....
He’s letting civil, criminal, and federal courts fail to handle the situation properly.....so he can use military tribunals. He has ALL the data from the NSA, the Kraken supercomputer, the Alice supercomputer and likely many more computers, unknown to us....
He has the dueling electors from 7 state legislatures. He has VP Pence, as the final arbiter of which ballots to accept.. the NDAA, the national emergency, the 14th amendment, the 2018 executive order, the 2017 very first EO, the Patriot Act, the FISA warrants,
(I’ve always wanted to tweet that) But seriously, there was a tropical storm when a group of people gathered in the woods.
If they were white, we’d call them “founding fathers” but they were slaves who were about to change the world
Holup. I ain't learned about this in school. What was this??— Drunk Tweets, Inc - Mask it or Casket (@DrunkTweetsInc) January 1, 2021
Voudou priestess Cecile Fatiman danced with a knife. Then she split a pig and everyone drank the pig’s blood from a wooden bowl while enslaved priest Cutty Boukman prayed:
“The god who created the earth; who created the sun that gives us light. The god who holds up the ocean;
who makes the thunder roar. Our god who has ears to hear. You who are hidden in the clouds, who watch us from where you are. You see all that the white has made us suffer. The white man’s god asks him to commit crimes. But the god within us wants to do good...
It’s He who will direct our arms and bring us the victory. It’s He who will assist us. We all should throw away the image of the white men’s god who is so pitiless. Listen to the voice for liberty that speaks in all our hearts.”
Then , the meeting adjourned & everyone went home.
A week later, on Aug. 21 1791, it began.
In one week, 1800 plantations on the Island of St. Domingue would be burned to the ground and 1,000 white enslavers would be dead.
The shit had finally hit the fan.
Each one of these projects stalled/delayed.
Tamil Nadu is on its way to becoming a Kerala or Bengal. Oh! Kerala allowed GAIL & Vizhinjam Port
Those who say Kerala has highest social/educational indicators need to understand theirs is a remittance economy sustained by inflows from Gulf. 36% of Kerala's GDP is Gulf money. Without this their per capita income wd be half that of TN or at best 2/3rds.
Despite Gulf money per capita income of Kerala is less than TN. With a jobs crisis in Gulf due to the pandemic and falling Oil prices Kerala will face the moment of truth sooner than later.There is almost no project that causes zero environmental damage.
No highway has ever been built without trees being cut or land being acquired. No SEZ has ever been developed without land being acquired.Of course environmental protection is important. That is why we ask for safeguards. That is why there is an NGT. If Govt officials
are corrupt & ignore rules,solution is to hold them to account not stop all projects. Everyone of us including the protesters now travel on highways built by cutting lakhs of trees&on land acquired from farmers. Lakhs of our youth work in the same SEZ that were once paddy fields
An enormous area of anomalous warmth plagued Arctic Siberia effectively all year but it was not just the Arctic where we saw record shattering warmth.
Another way of looking at it... Very few cold blobs left. La Niña developed and shows up in the Pacific.
The climate is not changing uniformly, the Arctic is warming much faster than the rest of the world.
Data: @CopernicusEU and compares to 1981-2010 average.
JANUARY was joint hottest January globally on record according to NASA GISTEMP v4 (joint record with 2016).
Profound winter warmth for North America plus Europe and Asia.
FEBRUARY was second hottest on record (1st place is still held in 2016).
The winter 'warmth' in Europe and Asia was just insane.
MARCH: A cold Canada, Greenland and Svalbard... but obvious warmth still striking across the continents, particularly northern/central Asia.
This was the second hottest March on record (2016 still holds the record).
Current risks are vastly different from our ancestors, but our brains are wired the same. Knowing the science behind decision-making helps us better talk about climate threats & spark action. 1/
I’ve dedicated my career to understanding what factors influence our perceptions of risk & shape behavioral outcomes, especially around climate action.
We clearly do not judge risks accurately. Let’s try this example. What is more likely to kill you:
Ppl often say shark attacks even though plane parts are 30x more likely to kill us. Attacks are more sensational/easier to recall.
Brains react in certain ways to risks around us, rapidly scanning environmental cues (e.g. snake’s stance) with subliminal and automated processing.
How does brain wiring relate to climate action? We're influenced by triggers such as if we can see risk or if we trust who communicates it to us.
Bluntly, we overestimate unserious risks like vaccinating children and underestimate seemingly far away risks like rising sea levels.
Sociology shows how even political identities influence risk perception. A human evolutionary trait allows us to avoid cognitive dissonance from info 1) that isn’t pleasant or 2) contradicts beliefs integral to our identity/tribe. We’re wired to make snap judgements for comfort.
The ice caps are turning in cold rocks and I end up in a rabbit hole feeling helpless.
It just sucks to imagine a #future where the only way people can enjoy nature as you and I did via #hiking etc is to read blogs and watch videos.
That sucks on so many levels.
And when I think about the reasons for this situation. I can't seem to go any further but to pin it on #consumption.
Not just fashion or lifestyle consumption. But any damn product.
From the smallest sewing pin to the giant #spaceships.
Because let's get real. Everything is one or the other form of a natural resource. Even synthetic product like plastic needs cellulose, coal etc. And so far, the only legit source of natural resources is digging deep into the Earth.
So you dig up these resources and turn them into the products we consume. The shirts, jeans, bike, laptop, phone etc. Everything is made from nature. Along the way creating jobs and the so-called development.
But how good is this #development?
Moreover is this #Sustainable?
That is in reference to 1990 carbon emissions - which is the standard point of reference
VDL trying to sound conciliatory - making point about the ratchet clause that all sides “remain free - sovereign” to do what they are want as regards matching future increases in regulations, but that both sides should retain right to adapt conditions for market entry
On fishing VDL says UK must understand legitimate expectations of EU fishing fleet based on decades and sometimes centuries of access ...
journalists at the EU summit seem more interested in asking Merkel/ VDL about Turkey than summit Brexit discussions, so far zero questions - some informational value there ...