Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 01/01/2021

Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 01/13/2021

Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 01/09/2021

Many wonder how epidemiology could have become so politicized. But epidemiology - like climate science (the other "mysteriously politicized" subject) has intrinsic politics: to take epidemiology seriously, you have to acknowledge that our species has a shared destiny.

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Much of the debate over "liberty" can be summed up as "you do you" - I'll swing my arm over here, you keep your nose over there, and so long as we both respect each others' "freedom," I won't punch you in the nose and your nose will remain unpunched.

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This breaks down when applied to epidemiology: "You wear your mask, I'll leave mine at home, and we'll both exercise our freedoms" is like "You swim in the no-pissing end of the pool, I'll swim down here in the pissing end, and we'll both get our way."

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We're in the same epidemiological pool, and the science is clear: masking's benefit is primarily in protecting others from you - your presymptomatic, asymptomatic (or symptomatic) spread of particles. Your decision not to wear a mask puts me in danger.

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If your worldview ascribes political outcomes to individual choices (implying that poverty or misfortune are the result of a combination of laziness and inferiority), then anything that demands a systemic view challenges its very foundations.

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Thread on very strong inbound CA storm. A cold & clear morning will quickly give way to increasing clouds, NorCal valley rain & snow down to 1,500-2,000 ft (locally lower) later this PM. Current satellite imagery shows this strengthening system off the coast. (1/10) #CAwx

Tonight, a rapidly intensifying cold front will sweep across NorCal. This front will be unusually well defined, for a CA winter storm, and will replace an already cold airmass with...another cold airmass! (2/10) #CAwx

The cold frontal passage is expected to be quite dramatic across NorCal in the overnight hours. A convective "narrow cold frontal rainband" (NCFR) will likely develop, which could bring a period of torrential rain or snow to many areas, as well as possible lightning. (3/10) #CAwx

Extremely heavy precipitation is possible for a 30-60+ minute period when this NCFR feature moves ashore. Over an inch of rain could fall per hour in some spots. This portion of the event poses a high threat of debris flows in/near recently burned areas. (4/10) #CAwx

In addition to torrential rainfall, the cold front/NCFR will be accompanied by very strong wind gusts across much of NorCal. In fact, high-res models are suggesting potential for gusts of 60-70 mph even in lower elevation places. Widespread power outages possible. (5/10) #CAwx

Just as no amount of flat temperature data would dissuade the climate cult, so no amount of flat (or even negative!) data on mask effectiveness will shake the faith of the Church of Covid. Beautiful Theories cannot be disproven by mere information.

The "Covid emergency" will never be over. It will mutate and seek out new missions when this particular virus threat abates, repurposing its funding and clinging to its power. They're already talking up the "next pandemic" and how we must forever remain at DEFCON 2 to be ready.

Masks are now a visible and tangible symbol of an entire agenda. Its champions will use every means possible to force you to wear them forever, including corporate pressure, their new favorite tool. Expect commercial mask requirements to linger, especially big corporations.

True believers, meanwhile, will wear their masks with grim determination and scowl ostentatiously at everyone who refuses to join them. It's a new virtue signal that will not go away any time soon. Mask scolding is a quick, easy, heady power rush.

All the while, studies will keep rolling out that masks don't help, and might even hurt. That was fairly common medical knowledge before the pandemic began, but it was aggressively suppressed when masks became a political symbol, and a totem for people desperate to DO SOMETHING.

Fascinating new paper by @AndrewDessler and colleagues arguing committed warming might be higher than expected given historical pattern effects. Its combining a lot of different concepts together, so lets spend some time disentangling them https://t.co/ILi5z515Qy

A thread: 1/19

The paper's headline number is that we previously thought the world was committed to 1.3C warming, but that number is actually over 2C (> 1.5C by 2100). This is quite a different message than we get from Earth System Models, which suggest committed warming is only ~1.2C. 2/19

This would imply that the 1.5C by 2100 target is effectively impossible, and that long-term warming of >2C would be very difficult to avoid. However, the devil is in the details, and the picture is not quite as dire as it would seem at first glance. 3/19

When we talk about "committed warming" folks are generally talking about one of two scenarios: either constant CO2 and other GHG concentrations (and forcings), or getting all emissions (or just CO2 emissions) down to zero immediately. 4/19

In the first method – constant concentrations – we find that the world warms up another 0.5C or so, as the oceans continue to take up heat as more energy is being trapped by greenhouse gases than is being emitted back to space. Much of this additional warming happens by 2100 5/19