BC CATEGORY C19
Saved by @vliscony

1/: Scientific integrity is a valuable commodity. What happens when external funders take influence on both scientific™ findings and media coverage can be seen in the current global crisis. It is time to return to the fundamental principles of science: ⬇️A thread⬇️

 2/: In this thread, I will roughly explain why #empiricism and #repeatability are important factors for science and why model approaches should be interpreted with caution (and that is what I am saying as a modeller).
3/: I am aware that the principle of science is far more profound than explained in this thread, but this thread is written for laymen on @twitter and not for the lecture room. Also, within the scientific community, there is no clear consensus about this topic either.
4/: In recent years, I have been working on complex food production systems that increase food production and show high nutrient and water use efficiencies. I have thus been involved in plant growth experiments and holistic system modelling activities (@MATLAB, @AnyLogicCo).
5/: The plant growth experiments included environmental factors, #metagenomics (i.e. microbial genome sequencing), flow regulations etc. and the modelling covered the prediction on non-existing systems based on experimental and literature data.
6/: The IMHO most important principle of science is #empiricism. Empirical evidence is information that verifies the truth (which accurately corresponds to reality) or falsity (inaccuracy) of a claim. However, experiments and observations usually do not represent the "truth".
7/: There can be many intervening factors that have an impact on the observations. The less the conditions are controlled, the higher the deviations. So in order to “find the truth”, one wants to conduct an experiment in an environment with as few as possible inference factors.
8/: I will explain this through the example of my plant growth experiments. One can conduct the experiment in a greenhouse; solar radiation, humidity, temperature etc., are no stable factors. However, in a “climate chamber”, all of these factors can be standardized.
9/: This allows us to compare experiments with one another much easier. But there are also other factors that are not easy to control. These are (often) the genetic diversity of plant species, microbiological characteristics of the process water etc.
10/: This brings us to the point to talk about #repeatability. First of all, it’s essential that an experiment should contain several replications (or, if not possible repetitions) and control groups to ensure a high statistical relevance with respect to the made observations.
11/: However, the results are fundamentally dependent on the many factors, which have a decisive influence on the experiment’s outcome. I will give you two examples to explain what I mean: (a) my experiences with plant growth experiments; (b) vitamin D #COVID trials.
12/: In one experiment, we observed that lettuce grew much faster (40%) when being grown in aquaculture-derived water that contained many bacteria (i.e. which was not sterile such as it is the case for hydroponics systems). https://t.co/WBMyfb5v8k
13/: I repeated this experiment in different locations repeatedly, and the results seem to differ (still, we always see a growth advantage). This has to do with environmental conditions, different microbial strains in the process water, different seed material/quality etc.
14/: So what’s the truth? I don’t know. Why don’t I know? Because it depends. What does it depend on? Well, many factors.

And plant growth experiment cannot be considered complex compared to the field of epidemiology or alike, where it’s even harder to control conditions.
15/: I was able to make similar observations regarding vitamin D studies. Many studies have been conducted in this field, and they are everything but uniform, also due to different hypotheses. An overview of conducted vitamin D studies can be found here: https://t.co/zhzTWwF9br
16/: In general, we can see that vitamin D has a high impact on the severity of the course of COVID, the death rate etc. And yet, meta-analyses generally compare apples and oranges (which is often unavoidable, so there is nobody to blame). https://t.co/YgJJNwMfzE
17/: The approach of every study differs in the following approaches: (1) amount IU of vitamin D administered; (2) time of administration; (3) physical characteristics of the patients; (4) selection of individuals; (5) dietary co-factors; etc. just to name some.
18/: There are, for example, studies out there that claim that vitamin D doesn't have an impact on COVID. Those studies, however, assume that a sufficient vitamin D blood serum level lays around 20 ng/mL, which is a completely faulty assumption. Still made it through peer review.
19/: Such drawn conclusions can cause confusions, and it’s the scientific community’s job to analyse, verify, and discuss findings. Such open discussions (which should include transparent peer-review processes) would help us to reduce biases. https://t.co/c1ONzsVMWC
20/: After having given you a brief insight into #empiricism and #repeatability, I want to talk about the field of modelling. During this 'pandemic', the outcome of models, again and again, justify political restrictions. But how does modelling work?
21/: The objective of a prediction model is to predict the future on the basis of available or predicted data. Often, complex situations have to be simplified for a model to work.
22/: In the last couple of months, we came across many modelled predictions: almost all of them were completely wrong (remark: don’t let physicists work in the field of epidemiology). Issues such as #seasonality have been purposely neglected, which is a methodological failure.
23/: Comparing the model prediction with the actual observations is called “model validation”. Every serious scientist should validate their models and publicly discuss why the model failed or was able to predict the future. This is somehow not the case anymore.
24/: It would be exciting to get to know why @ViolaPriesemann, @EricTopiol, @CorneliusRoemer, @neil_ferguson, or @VSPTUBerlin (who are traffic planners lol) do not validate their COVID-models but instead keep on publishing doomsday scenarios with their faulty work.
25/: It is also useful to illustrate complex relationships in so-called causal-loop diagrams prior to blindly modelling a situation. That is at least what I do (see graphic for Kombucha).
26/: A holistic causal loop diagram demonstrating the complexity of the pandemic environmental–health–socio–economic system can be found in this publication: https://t.co/CpCL4wMq2b. This could for example be a solid basis for a holistic model (consisting of several submodels).
27/: Every serious scientist should keep on questioning the “reality” and his/her own work. I can only recommend the mentioned “scientists” and many other modellers to read the following article. https://t.co/UBoPEliLiL
28/: I also have another shout-out to the media: why do you keep on giving scientists a platform that have been wrong several times.
29/: … are openly lying... https://t.co/nPKyuGTr63
30/: … committed scientific fraud… (hello @Eurosurveillanc & @StephenABustin)
https://t.co/1m7rpVqYFQ
31/: … let their bachelor students do the modelling job…
https://t.co/5hLDktlvf8
32/: … lack of a scientific degrees…
https://t.co/pMIGbbKrLU
33/: … make false statements… (plus get funded by #Soros, @wef and @WHO; i.e. conflict of interests)
https://t.co/nElSOLHMUd
34/: … defame genuine colleagues…
https://t.co/h78oX9Ah3a
35/: … have conflicts of interests… (best wishes to the @gatesfoundation). etc.
https://t.co/2AzbGs4KDT
36: Also, the #TeamScience that the media talks about is much bigger than assumed. Critical voices are disregarded or discredited. Instead, those who are in line with the agenda (no matter how unscientific their approach is) are presented as “THE SCIENCE™” we should listen to.
37/: Last but not least, John Ioannidis wrote one of the most important publications of the last decades about this topic: “Why Most Published Research Findings Are False”. Give it a go because he is part of the real #TeamScience. https://t.co/LeGCfIMHFf

More from Dr. Simon ツ

Dr. Simon \u30c4
Dr. Simon ツ
@goddeketal
1/: The Nuremberg Code is a set of research ethics principles for human experimentation created as a result of the Nuremberg trials at the end of the Second World War. In light of the current events, they are more actual than ever before. ⬇️an important thread⬇️


2/: These so-called ‘Doctors’ Trial’ focused on physicians who conducted #inhumane and #unethical human experiments in German concentration camps, in addition to those who were involved in over 3,500,000 sterilizations of German citizens. (the picture shows doctors/criminals)


3/: Ten points of the code were given in the section of the verdict entitled "Permissible Medical Experiments". They can be found in detail on the following website:

4/: Point #1 means that the person involved should have legal capacity to give consent; should be so situated as to be able to exercise free power of choice, without the intervention of any element of force, fraud, or deceit.


5/: Using an insufficiently-tested vaccine on humans is unethical. However, as long as people voluntarily consent to receive the vaccine, being informed about all risks, everything is OK. Doing this with force, however, is against the Nuremberg Code.
CATEGORY C19
Dr. Simon \u30c4
Dr. Simon ツ
@goddeketal
1/ One year of destroyed economies, social isolation & deep social splits calls for an anniversary ⬇️thread ⬇️ to celebrate the RT-qPCR manuscript by Christian Drosten (@c_drosten) & Victor Corman (@vmcorman), submitted on 21st Jan 2020 to @Eurosurveillanc. #UnbiasedScience


2/ Before this very publication, virologists were neither treated like superstars, nor were they considered icons or half-gods. In 2009, Drosten almost succeeded in installing the false premise virology could supersede holistic medical sciences as discussed in this thread.

3/ Drosten is a virologist. He neither has any background in epidemiology, nor has he ever worked in the civil service. He also doesn’t have a background in public health. Yet he and his colleagues affect our daily lives to the level of whom to meet up or how to flush the toilet.


4/ Before January 2020, Drosten and Corman were common virologists at Charité Berlin, whenever they were not involved in economic implications (https://t.co/UTDwG8U7Du). Other than that, they looked at coronaviruses in dromedary calves in the Middle East or Africa. 😍 #cute


5/ Finally in Jan 2020, the published paper laid the theoretical grounds for the current pandemic, the RT-qPCR mass testing-religion, for which he was awarded his second German Federal Cross of Merit (he received the first one in 2005 for developing the SARS-CoV PCR test).
SOCIETY
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Dr. Simon \u30c4
Dr. Simon ツ
@goddeketal
Substantial analysis of @BenMarten regarding the mortality in Germany. Particularly noticeable is the "excess mortality" in December. Ben states that "lockdown deaths" could play an important role here. I would like to elaborate my thoughts on that. ⬇️Mini-Thread⬇️


Factor 1: Vitamin D deficiency.

Many people (especially elderly) have been locked in during the summer. Also the majority of holiday trips have been cancelled, leading to a lower 25(OH)D blood serum level as usual. The body can store vitamin D up to several months.


As vitamin D is a hormon that modulates the immune responses, we can assume that the lockdown measures had some adverse effect on our immune system. Especially elderly people in retirement homes must have been severely affected.

Factor 2: Loneliness

"Loneliness, it seems, can lead to long-term "fight-or-flight" stress signaling, which negatively affects immune system functioning. Simply put, people who feel lonely have less immunity and more inflammation than people who

Factor 3: Hyper Hygiene

Constant disinfections and high hygienic standards weaken the immune system. It gets literally "out of
WORLD
Dr. Simon \u30c4
Dr. Simon ツ
@goddeketal
1/ Happy to announce that we have submitted our #paper ‘Bayes Lines Tool (BLT) - A SQL-script for analyzing diagnostic test results with an application to SARS-CoV-2-testing’.

In this ⬇️thread⬇️, I will explain why our tool is that powerful for decision makers. #UnbiasedScience


2/ In the meantime, the submitted paper is available on the preprint platform @zenodo_org. Factual criticism is highly desired and encouraged. The publication itself presents a seminal Bayesian calculator, the Bayes Lines Tool (BLT). (Petje af, @waukema!)

3/ The Bayes Line Tool (available on https://t.co/jIomSIxOd9) is able to back-solve disease #prevalence, test #sensitivity, test #specificity, and therefore, true positive, false positive, true negative and false negative numbers from official governmental test outcome reports.

4/ This is done by creating confusion matrices with four variables. Namely: TP, FP, TN, FN. In order to calculate the matrices, we need prevalence, specificity, and sensitivity as well as the number of people that got tested (within a given period) and the number of positives.


5/ The number of positives and the number of tests are given by the government. Prevalence, specificity, and sensitivity are unknown. So we assume any combination of them ranging from 0-99%. These three combinations can amount up to #millions of #combinations.
TECH
Dr. Simon \u30c4
Dr. Simon ツ
@goddeketal
1/: Avicenna was a Persian scientist, who lived 1000 years ago. He put two lambs in separate cages, which had the same health conditions. But only one lamb could see a wolf that was put in a third cage. The observations were astounding. (h/t @farmer_student) ⬇️a thread⬇️


2/: Both lambs were provided with the same feed. Also, the weight was exactly the same when the experiment started. Several months later, the lamb with sight on the wolf became cranky, restless, weak, and showed a significant weight loss and signs of poor development.

3/: The lamb that was under chronic stress as it was placed in a situation of constant apparent danger died eventually. 🐑🪦 In fact, the wolf did not pose a danger at all, but this was beyond the lamb's perception.

4/: This experiment showed that increased levels of the stress hormone cortisol have a bad impact on the metabolism of mammals. And 1000 years after this experiment, we are facing a similar situation again but with the difference that we are aware of the impact of stress.

5/: Currently, we are overwhelmed with medial and governmental propaganda with respect to a common cold virus (that might hypothetically be more lethal though) that doesn't do harm to the majority of the people. Extreme global measures are taken.
CATEGORY C19

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Robin Monotti MA FRSA\u2b50
Robin Monotti MA FRSA⭐...
@robinmonotti
"COVID-19 vaccines designed to elicit neutralising antibodies may sensitise vaccine recipients to more severe disease than if they were not vaccinated. Vaccines for SARS, MERS and RSV have never been

"data generated in the development & testing of these vaccines suggest a serious mechanistic concern: that vaccines designed empirically using the traditional approach (consisting of the unmodified or minimally modified coronavirus viral spike to elicit neutralising antibodies)"

"be they composed of protein, viral vector, DNA or RNA and irrespective of delivery method, may worsen COVID-19 disease via antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE)."

"This risk is sufficiently obscured in clinical trial protocols and consent forms for ongoing COVID-19 vaccine trials that adequate patient comprehension of this risk is unlikely to occur, obviating truly informed consent by subjects in these trials."

"Covid-19: vaccination roll-out correlates with worse mortality trends"
CATEGORY C19
Abir Ballan \U0001f60a
Abir Ballan 😊
@abirballan
MUST

Tedros says something all member states who are part of the WHO have to obey by law

@11:00 Bill Gates requested to be part of the executive board like a member state

Swiss medics (the FDA of Switzerland) has signed a contract with Bill Gates and WHO

@16:00 GAVI has qualified diplomatic immunity and they don’t pay taxes since 2009

@25:00 pandemic and herd immunity definition changed
CATEGORY C19
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Dr. Simon \u30c4
Dr. Simon ツ
@goddeketal
1/: Avicenna was a Persian scientist, who lived 1000 years ago. He put two lambs in separate cages, which had the same health conditions. But only one lamb could see a wolf that was put in a third cage. The observations were astounding. (h/t @farmer_student) ⬇️a thread⬇️


2/: Both lambs were provided with the same feed. Also, the weight was exactly the same when the experiment started. Several months later, the lamb with sight on the wolf became cranky, restless, weak, and showed a significant weight loss and signs of poor development.

3/: The lamb that was under chronic stress as it was placed in a situation of constant apparent danger died eventually. 🐑🪦 In fact, the wolf did not pose a danger at all, but this was beyond the lamb's perception.

4/: This experiment showed that increased levels of the stress hormone cortisol have a bad impact on the metabolism of mammals. And 1000 years after this experiment, we are facing a similar situation again but with the difference that we are aware of the impact of stress.

5/: Currently, we are overwhelmed with medial and governmental propaganda with respect to a common cold virus (that might hypothetically be more lethal though) that doesn't do harm to the majority of the people. Extreme global measures are taken.
CATEGORY C19
Dr. Simon \u30c4
Dr. Simon ツ
@goddeketal
1/: The Nuremberg Code is a set of research ethics principles for human experimentation created as a result of the Nuremberg trials at the end of the Second World War. In light of the current events, they are more actual than ever before. ⬇️an important thread⬇️


2/: These so-called ‘Doctors’ Trial’ focused on physicians who conducted #inhumane and #unethical human experiments in German concentration camps, in addition to those who were involved in over 3,500,000 sterilizations of German citizens. (the picture shows doctors/criminals)


3/: Ten points of the code were given in the section of the verdict entitled "Permissible Medical Experiments". They can be found in detail on the following website:

4/: Point #1 means that the person involved should have legal capacity to give consent; should be so situated as to be able to exercise free power of choice, without the intervention of any element of force, fraud, or deceit.


5/: Using an insufficiently-tested vaccine on humans is unethical. However, as long as people voluntarily consent to receive the vaccine, being informed about all risks, everything is OK. Doing this with force, however, is against the Nuremberg Code.
CATEGORY C19
David Thunder
David Thunder
@davidjthunder
—TAKEAWAY LESSONS FROM PANDEMIC 2020-21: A THREAD—

Below, a few basic lessons I have drawn, as a political philosopher and informed citizen who has made it my business to closely follow political, social, economic, clinical, & epidemiological aspects of the pandemic:

1/ Most mainstream journalists cannot be relied upon to critically uncover, & impartially convey, the facts surrounding a complex & unfolding crisis. If you watch RTE, BBC, or CNN, you are fed naively one-sided stories laced with fear-mongering, misleading use of statistics, etc.

2/ If you wish to inform yourself about a public crisis like this pandemic, you must find commentators who have limited access to mainstream media, good credentials, & arguments that consider a wide range of available evidence. You need to be pro-active about diversifying sources

3/ Reliance by govts upon advisory committees with a clearly one-sided take on the pandemic (eg suppression at all cost) has led to catastrophic outcomes. Govts must diversify their scientific sources & encourage ROBUST scientific debate among their advisors.

4/ Hyper-centralised management of public health is ineffective. Decision-making power must be decentralised so that it can adapt quickly to local conditions. Care homes were badly hurt by top-down mandates that were sluggishly responsive to evolving conditions on the ground.
CATEGORY C19

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Jaya_Upadhyaya
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DODDA GANAPATHI, BENGALURU
#karnatakatemples

Dodda in Kannada means big. Sri Ganesha here is 18 ft tall in height and 16 ft wide. Dodda Ganesha is also known as Shakthi Ganapathi and Satya Ganapathi.

It is said that Kempe Gowda, the founder of Bengaluru, saw a rock here.


The rock had engravings of Ganesha. His sculptors cut the Ganesha murti from that single rock. Later, a shrine was built around the Ganesh murti.

It is believed that Dodda Ganapathi is the protector of Bengaluru. All auspicious events start by praying to Him.


Benne Alankara is the most famous festival here when about 100 kg of butter is coated over Ganapathi every four years and the rich prasad is offered to the worshippers.

Ganesha is also covered in cream colour and is decorated with golden laces and buttons
@GampaSD


The Dodda Ganapathi murti is believed to be still growing in size, especially towards right.

The weavers from old Bengaluru tie a coconut to their looms before starting work. When the work is completed, they break 100 coconuts here along with the one tied on the loom.
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#Thread
Lessor known facts of Sudarshan Chakra or Neela Chakra of Puri Jagannath Temple.

The metal wheel at the top of Bhagwan Jagannath temple is also known as Neela Chakra (Blue Wheel). The wheel is made of eight metals comprising of.. 1/n


iron, copper, zinc, mercury, lead, brass, silver & gold. It's circumferance is about 36 feet & it is so designed that there is a wheel within the wheel. The circumferance of the inner wheel is about 26 feet. Eight hubs join together the inner and the outer wheels. 2/n


There are decorative designs on the outer wheel. The thickness of the Neela Chakra is 2 inches.The wheel is said to be Bhagwan Vishnu's most powerful weapon, Sudarshana Chakra. Inside Jagannath temple, Lord Vishnu's wheel is also worshipped in the name of 'Sudarshana'. 3/n


But inside the temple Sudarshana is not in the shape of a wheel, but in the shape of a small wood pillar placed to the left of image of bhagwan Jagannath. It is believed that the same Sudarshana is also at the top of the temple and is known by the name of Neela Chakra. 4/n


There is a specific category of people among the temple sevaks to serve the Neela Chakra and they are known as Garuda Sevaka or Chunara Nejoga. The pilgrims hold these sevaks in high esteem because everyday at Sunset. 5/n
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A THREAD ON @SarangSood

Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.

Have covered:
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
2. Workbook
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen

1. Keeps following volatility super closely.

Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.

Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.


2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.


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He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.


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Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.
OPTIONSLEARNINGS , OPTIONSBASICS , OPTIONSLEARNINGSSARANGSOOD
Vibhu Vashisth
Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet
शमशान में जब महर्षि दधीचि के मांसपिंड का दाह संस्कार हो रहा था तो उनकी पत्नी अपने पति का वियोग सहन नहीं कर पायी और पास में ही स्थित विशाल पीपल वृक्ष के कोटर में अपने तीन वर्ष के बालक को रख के स्वयं चिता पे बैठ कर सती हो गयी ।इस प्रकार ऋषी दधीचि और उनकी पत्नी की मुक्ति हो गयी।


परन्तु पीपल के कोटर में रखा बालक भूख प्यास से तड़पने लगा। जब कुछ नहीं मिला तो वो कोटर में पड़े पीपल के गोदों (फल) को खाकर बड़ा होने लगा। कालान्तर में पीपल के फलों और पत्तों को खाकर बालक का जीवन किसी प्रकार सुरक्षित रहा।

एक दिन देवर्षि नारद वहां से गुजर रहे थे ।नारद ने पीपल के कोटर में बालक को देख कर उसका परिचय मांगा -
नारद बोले - बालक तुम कौन हो?
बालक - यही तो मैं भी जानना चहता हूँ ।
नारद - तुम्हारे जनक कौन हैं?
बालक - यही तो मैं भी जानना चाहता हूँ ।

तब नारद ने आँखें बन्द कर ध्यान लगाया ।


तत्पश्चात आश्चर्यचकित हो कर बालक को बताया कि 'हे बालक! तुम महान दानी महर्षि दधीचि के पुत्र हो । तुम्हारे पिता की अस्थियों का वज्रास्त्र बनाकर ही देवताओं ने असुरों पर विजय पायी थी।तुम्हारे पिता की मृत्यु मात्र 31 वर्ष की वय में ही हो गयी थी'।

बालक - मेरे पिता की अकाल मृत्यु का क्या कारण था?
नारद - तुम्हारे पिता पर शनिदेव की महादशा थी।
बालक - मेरे उपर आयी विपत्ति का कारण क्या था?
नारद - शनिदेव की महादशा।
इतना बताकर देवर्षि नारद ने पीपल के पत्तों और गोदों को खाकर बड़े हुए उस बालक का नाम पिप्पलाद रखा और उसे दीक्षित किया।
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Jijo Sunny
Jijo Sunny
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1/ 👋 Excited to share what we’ve been building at https://t.co/GOQJ7LjQ2t + we are going to tweetstorm our progress every week!

Week 1 highlights: getting shortlisted for YC W2019🤞, acquiring a premium domain💰, meeting Substack's @hamishmckenzie and Stripe CEO @patrickc 🤩

2/ So what is Brew?

brew / bru : / to make (beer, coffee etc.) / verb: begin to develop 🌱

A place for you to enjoy premium content while supporting your favorite creators. Sort of like a ‘Consumer-facing Patreon’ cc @jackconte

(we’re still working on the pitch)

3/ So, why be so transparent? Two words: launch strategy.

jk 😅 a) I loooove doing something consistently for a long period of time b) limited downside and infinite upside (feedback, accountability, reach).
cc @altimor, @pmarca


4/ https://t.co/GOQJ7LjQ2t domain 🍻

It started with a cold email. Guess what? He was using BuyMeACoffee on his blog, and was excited to hear about what we're building next. Within 2w, we signed the deal at @Escrowcom's SF office. You’re a pleasure to work with @MichaelCyger!

5/ @ycombinator's invite for the in-person interview arrived that evening. Quite a day!

Thanks @patio11 for the thoughtful feedback on our YC application, and @gabhubert for your directions on positioning the product — set the tone for our pitch!
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