BC CATEGORY C19
Saved by @vliscony

A brief tutorial in health education to show you how sound health education models have been used for manipulation instead of creating health awareness during the COVID 19 pandemic. We'll uses masks as an example of a health behavior.
Are you ready to explore? 1/n

 The Health Belief Model (HBM) consists of 5 components: perceived threat (lethality + Susceptibility),
perceived benefits,
perceived barriers and
cues to action.

Familiarise yourself with the definition of each concept in this table. 2/n
https://t.co/1tOz1cJFvc
Study this diagram to understand how the components are interrelated. 3/n
https://t.co/iUoaqNkgyP
Now let’s apply this to the COVID 19 pandemic.
Review this diagram to see how the HBM applies to the behaviour of mask-wearing.
“perceived susceptibility appeared to be the most significant factor determining compliance” 4/n
https://t.co/xF6uwUx12N
Part I: The HBM
Increase the perceived threat of a disease
1) increase perceived severity: Confusing the general public with CFR & IFR- 2 indicators that are an order of magnitude apart.
People understood wrongly that the fatality rate of C19 is 3.4%.
5/n
https://t.co/gxyEd0E9H0
2) Increase perceived susceptibility:
People were told that this virus is 'novel' and we are all immuno-naive to it and thus all susceptible. 6/n
https://t.co/C6ySpWQTw7
Both of these elements increase the perceived threat. So now the entire population feels threatened by a disease that is in fact only harmful to the very few (mostly the elderly with comorbidities). Fear is rampant at this point. 7/n
3) Increase perceived benefits: make people believe that masks can protect them and protect their loved ones
a) Recommendations by authoritative figures such as WHO ...
8/n
https://t.co/rdaMdtA2P3
and the CDC that listed studies with unsound methodologies on their website to support the benefits of wearing masks, such as the 2 hairdressers study!
9/n
https://t.co/8PUPrd3axu
b) create public acceptance through expert endorsements like Dr Tedros, Dr Fauci, and Dr Birx.
(I know what you are looking at. Give him a break. His perceived threat is low.) 10/n
a) another benefit is the avoidance of negative events
avoid stares and harassments by others (fitting in)
avoid being reported on. 11/n
https://t.co/d7UAAMxVgZ
avoid fines and being harassed by the police
12/n
https://t.co/yh51hCRgxG
4) Decrease perceived barriers:
a) increase the accessibility of masks by increasing their supply and promoting cloth masks as an option
13/n
https://t.co/MXNaQHuY06
b) reduce the sense of embarrassment from wearing maks =>turn them into a fashion statement
for women... you are sexy
for men... you are strong
for teens... you are cool
for kids ... you are cute
14/n
4) cues to action:
a) voice reminders in public places & signs in shops and public spaces
15/n
b) Using celebrities to promote masks
16/n
https://t.co/krwsfivfec
c) AD campaigns playing on emotions.
17/n
(FYI: Big budgets behind AD campaigns...) 18/n
Videos playing on emotions 19/n
https://t.co/NPN6S2pjdd
And to my utter disappointment, my favourite superheroine also participated in this...
20/n
https://t.co/cWKoGzW8Hk
=> the outcome of the analysis of perceived benefit minus the perceived barriers within the context of perceived threat determines the likelihood of engaging in the desired behaviour 21/n
Part II: Why is this a manipulation?
1) The severity was exaggerated
The fatality rate is much lower than initially insinuated by WHO. The median IFR (Infection fatality rate) is 0.23%.
22/n
https://t.co/fonxVwW9rE
2) The susceptibility was exaggerated

We are not all susceptible to the virus. SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID 19) is closely related to SARS-CoV (2003 epidemic). Many people might have pre-existing immunity that will protect them from this not-so-novel virus. 23/n
NIH reports:
“the evidence that a subset of people has a cross-reactive T cell repertoire through exposure to related coronaviruses is strong.“ 24/n
https://t.co/wQzeAWkKg5
3) Public health is never coercive. People are given accurate unbiased information about risks & benefits then respected to make their own decisions. In this case, people were given misleading information then mandated to abide by certain behaviours. 25/n
4) The health behaviour in question is not even shown to lead to the claimed benefit

“It would appear that despite two decades of pandemic preparedness, there is considerable uncertainty as to the value of wearing masks.” @carlheneghan @CebmOxfo 26/n
https://t.co/Eo7n9CVzB5
The Norwegian Institute of Public Health review:
"wearing facemasks to reduce the spread of COVID-19 is not recommended for individuals in the community without respiratory symptoms who are not in near contact with people who are known to be infected." 27/
https://t.co/iggSJjRDV0
from the same review...
“200 000 people would need to wear facemasks to prevent one new infection per week in the current epidemiological situation." 28/n
“we did not find evidence that surgical-type face masks are effective in reducing laboratory-confirmed influenza transmission, either when worn by infected persons (source control) or by persons in the general community to reduce their susceptibility.”-CDC
https://t.co/ulazJvURSI
“At present, there is no direct evidence (from studies on COVID19 and in healthy people in the community) on the effectiveness of universal masking of healthy people in the community to prevent infection with respiratory viruses, including C19.”- WHO 30/n
https://t.co/zdAsllF1vv
5) Mixed messaging from authoritative bodies such as the WHO & CDC recommending masks for the general public on their social media & websites but then publishing reviews that the public will not dig out saying that there is a lack of evidence to support mask mandates. 31/n

More from Abir Ballan 😊

Abir Ballan \U0001f60a
Abir Ballan 😊
@abirballan
All you need to know about COVID19
FACTS NOT FEAR

Covid 19 is a disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. SARS-CoV-2 is one of 7 coronaviruses known to man. 1/n

The pandemic is real. Excess deaths were observed in many countries. Not all countries were affected in the same way due to pre-existing immunity, the health status of the population and demographics (the proportion of elderly in the population) 2/n
https://t.co/65elPq3gp5


COVID 19 presents a high risk for the very few and negligible risk for the many.

The infection fatality rate in different age groups:
<19 y, IFR= 0.003%
20-49 y: IFR= 0.02%
50-69 y: 0.5%
>70y, IFR=

Not everybody is susceptible to the virus. If reinfected, pre-existing immunity from related viruses gives protection from developing the disease or from developing serious symptoms.
4/n

“The evidence that a subset of people has a cross-reactive T cell repertoire through exposure to related coronaviruses is
COVID19 , CATEGORY C19
Abir Ballan \U0001f60a
Abir Ballan 😊
@abirballan
Heart-breaking harsh reality.
Not only did we prevent kids from proper education, denied them to play in the park or swim in the sea, asked them to wear masks, not touch or play with their friends,...

and caused them scaring psychological harm from safetyism, we are also physically injuring them.
How can we not see the plight of the children? 2/n

“number of children under one presenting with fractures & head trauma since September has more than doubled compared to the same period the previous year. It's normal for parents to feel overwhelmed sometimes. But serious injuries can happen in just a few sec. of frustration.”3/n

@nedaamani @strauss_matt @CIMAdoctors @OnCall4ON @CPHO_Canada @CMOH_Alberta
@denisrancourt @randyhillier
#Canada #Ontario @barbcraig7 @CdnAdvocacy @myfreedom2017 @roccogalatilaw @JustinTrudeau
4/n

"we know that the accompanying illness, death, social isolation and malnutrition will have deep and lasting impacts on our children and adolescents"
SOCIETY
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Abir Ballan \U0001f60a
Abir Ballan 😊
@abirballan
The ten points of the Nuremberg Code
1) The voluntary consent of the human subject is absolutely essential.

2) The experiment should be such as to yield fruitful results for the good of society, unprocurable by other methods or means of study, and not random and unnecessary in nature. 2/n

3) The experiment should be so designed and based on the results of animal experimentation and a knowledge of the natural history of the disease or other problem under study that the anticipated results will justify the performance of the experiment. 3/n

4) The experiment should be so conducted as to avoid all unnecessary physical and mental suffering and injury. 4/n

5) No experiment should be conducted where there is an a priori reason to believe that death or disabling injury will occur; except, perhaps, in those experiments where the experimental physicians also serve as subjects. 5/n
FOR LATER READ
Abir Ballan \U0001f60a
Abir Ballan 😊
@abirballan
"If you then discovered that the majority of the committee members had financial interests in the drug being developed, how would you feel?" 1/n
@zoeharcombe @RosemaryFreiTO @simondolan @Francis_Hoar @BreesAnna @toadmeister @NeilClark66 @allisonpearson

#KBF
"The advice was stay home if you’re sick, wash your hands, protect the vulnerable, most people will have a mild illness, wearing face masks is “usually quite a bad idea“, & “big gatherings don’t have a big effect so we don’t want to disrupt people’s lives.” 2/n

"1) Organisations invested in vaccines make money from vaccines. If people acquire natural immunity, they have reduced or no need for a vaccine and thus the potential gain for the vaccine company is reduced." 3/n

"2) Locking people in their homes and other lockdown measures will reduce the number of people who acquire natural immunity." 4/n

"The notable exception was that @neil_ferguson resigned from the SAGE committee when it became known (on 5th May) that he had broken lockdown rules" 5/n
SOCIETY
Abir Ballan \U0001f60a
Abir Ballan 😊
@abirballan
MUST

Tedros says something all member states who are part of the WHO have to obey by law

@11:00 Bill Gates requested to be part of the executive board like a member state

Swiss medics (the FDA of Switzerland) has signed a contract with Bill Gates and WHO

@16:00 GAVI has qualified diplomatic immunity and they don’t pay taxes since 2009

@25:00 pandemic and herd immunity definition changed
CATEGORY C19

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Robin Monotti MA FRSA\u2b50
Robin Monotti MA FRSA⭐...
@robinmonotti
"COVID-19 vaccines designed to elicit neutralising antibodies may sensitise vaccine recipients to more severe disease than if they were not vaccinated. Vaccines for SARS, MERS and RSV have never been

"data generated in the development & testing of these vaccines suggest a serious mechanistic concern: that vaccines designed empirically using the traditional approach (consisting of the unmodified or minimally modified coronavirus viral spike to elicit neutralising antibodies)"

"be they composed of protein, viral vector, DNA or RNA and irrespective of delivery method, may worsen COVID-19 disease via antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE)."

"This risk is sufficiently obscured in clinical trial protocols and consent forms for ongoing COVID-19 vaccine trials that adequate patient comprehension of this risk is unlikely to occur, obviating truly informed consent by subjects in these trials."

"Covid-19: vaccination roll-out correlates with worse mortality trends"
CATEGORY C19
Robin Monotti FRSA MA BSc
Robin Monotti FRSA MA ...
@robinmonotti
BAYES' THEOREM: The basic reason we get so many false positives to COVID19. The disease is so rare that the number of false positives greatly outnumbers the people who truly have the disease: THE MATHS:
https://t.co/oLHyxYJW9H


"Suppose that you are worried that you might have a rare disease. You decide to get tested, and suppose that the testing methods for this disease are correct 99 percent of the time"

"Suppose this disease is actually quite rare, occurring randomly in the general population in only one of every 10,000 people. If your test results come back POSITIVE, what are your chances that you actually have the disease? LESS THAN 1% chance that you have the disease!"


"The basic reason we get such a surprising result is because the disease is so rare that the number of false positives greatly outnumbers the people who truly have the disease"


Say mass testing of the contagious virus was done to 1 million people. In that million, 100 will really have the disease, 99 will be correctly diagnosed as having it. 999,900 of the million will not have the disease, but of those about 9,999 will be false positives! #BayesTheorem
CATEGORY C19
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Dr. Simon \u30c4
Dr. Simon ツ
@goddeketal
1/: Scientific integrity is a valuable commodity. What happens when external funders take influence on both scientific™ findings and media coverage can be seen in the current global crisis. It is time to return to the fundamental principles of science: ⬇️A thread⬇️


2/: In this thread, I will roughly explain why #empiricism and #repeatability are important factors for science and why model approaches should be interpreted with caution (and that is what I am saying as a modeller).

3/: I am aware that the principle of science is far more profound than explained in this thread, but this thread is written for laymen on @twitter and not for the lecture room. Also, within the scientific community, there is no clear consensus about this topic either.

4/: In recent years, I have been working on complex food production systems that increase food production and show high nutrient and water use efficiencies. I have thus been involved in plant growth experiments and holistic system modelling activities (@MATLAB, @AnyLogicCo).


5/: The plant growth experiments included environmental factors, #metagenomics (i.e. microbial genome sequencing), flow regulations etc. and the modelling covered the prediction on non-existing systems based on experimental and literature data.
CATEGORY C19
Alex Berenson
Alex Berenson
@AlexBerenson
1/ An excellent new paper from Denmark that tracks every vaccination given to nursing home residents there shows an 40% RISE in infections immediately after the first @pfizer dose and no efficacy at any point. Protection in this population after “full” vaccination is 64%...


2/ The researchers also tracked health-care workers, the other group in Denmark to receive the vaccine first. They actually had an even LARGER rise in infections immediately following dose 1, but overall higher protection at “full” vaccination (a week after dose 2) - 90%...

3/ This paper is the best yet (because it’s the least political). It is also in line with the Israeli and English data show once you wade through their spin. The takeaways are: The vaccine is much less effective in the people who need it most and DON’T DELAY THE SECOND SHOT...

4/ By the way, i#depending on how long the vaccine provides protection, its OVERALL effectiveness will be below whatever the peak figure is, maybe well below - you need a lot of good weeks to make up for that bolus at the beginning - but I don’t even want to go there.

5/ This paper also shows why the raw Israeli numbers are trash - if infections are declining overall (as they were in Israel and Denmark in February) looking at infections in the vaccinated population without adjusting for that trend markedly overestimates the vaccine effect.
CATEGORY C19
VoidSurf
VoidSurf
@VoidSurf1
SCB has dropped its final 2020 stats on deaths for Sweden. This chart is a breakdown by age for both sexes compared to 2018.

Most notably, there's no excess among children and people of working age, confirming the preliminary stats for males I had published earlier.


Here's the same data, but with spline interpolation applied to the 5-yr age groups. This just smooths out some of the random and cohort-related fluctuations. The picture is the same.


Unfortunately, the fact deaths are exclusively concentrated in the elderly age rage means that all of the deaths you see reported are pretty much all theirs. Fortunately, since they're generally retired, they don't need to sacrifice their livelihoods to protect themselves.

We need evidence-based mitigation strategies. Terrorizing a 15yo with imminent death is neither helpful nor honest. Closing schools isn't helpful (and Sweden hasn't). Be aware around your (grand)parents. Take care of them, make sure they understand the risks.

With the resources we have spent/lost on locking down people below 75 years old, I'm sure we could have devised a far superior targeted approach for those who need it and request it. We don't need to demolish our society, economy, and the lives of future generations to save lives
CATEGORY C19

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Sri Sanjeevi Rayar Temple located in Ayyangar Kulam,near Kanchipuram,TN

#Thread

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Time for a Thread🧵On yesterday’s “F&O Pe Charcha - Diary Of An Option Seller” with @Mitesh_Engr by @Paytm Money

Why Gain/loss ratio is important that the batting average
• More than the Win Loss ratio check the total Gain /loss ratio
• If your avg loss is 1% and avg gain is +5% then even if you are losing in 7 positions and winning in 3 out of 10 still you will be net profitable

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Stock Selection:
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You want to know something about how bullshit insane our brains are?
OK, so there's a physical problem with our eyes: We move them in short fast bursts called "saccades", right? very quick, synchronized movements.
The only problem is: they go all blurry and useless during this

having your vision turn into a blurry mess every time you move your eyes is obviously not a good idea, so our brains hide it from us. Now, imagine you're an engineer and you have this problem.

You've got some obvious solutions you could do.
1. make the vision go black during movement. (Some VR games do this!)
2. just keep showing the last thing we saw prior to movement

both are good options with different downsides, but OH NO. this is assuming everything makes sense and is chronological and (regular) logical.
Your brain does neither of these options, really.

first, it basically puts your visual system on "pause". You're not seeing blackness or even nothing, you're just not seeing period.
then when you finish your saccade, it shows you what you now see at the new position. and then it pretends it can time travel.
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